Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.2%, the CSI 300 dropped by 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.7% on Thursday [5][7] - The best-performing sectors included computers (+0.4%) and communications (+0.1%), while the worst performers were steel (-4.1%) and real estate (-3.1%) [5][7] - Total trading volume across the A-shares was 19,618 billion, with net inflow from southbound funds amounting to 13.13 billion HKD [5][7] Key Recommendations - The report highlights Qiao Feng Intelligent (301603) as a domestic CNC machine tool leader, emphasizing its potential for high growth despite market cycles [8] - The Chinese machine tool market is valued at over 1 trillion, with low market concentration and significant room for domestic replacement of high-end machines currently dominated by foreign companies [8] - The company is positioned in high-demand sectors, with rapid growth in contract liabilities indicating strong future performance [8][9] Important Insights - The macroeconomic analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice within the year, with limited impact from recent political disturbances regarding the Fed Chair [11][12] - The report indicates a shift in the competitive landscape of the domestic machine tool industry from homogeneous competition to differentiated competition, enhancing the potential for exports [9] - The company is focusing on high-end products and has made significant technological breakthroughs, with contract liabilities showing substantial growth [9][10] Industry Analysis - The home appliance sector is experiencing a surge in MiniLED technology, with rapid penetration rates and improved profitability for brands [13] - The report anticipates that MiniLED products will drive brand performance beyond expectations, with catalysts including increased shipment rates [13] - However, there are risks associated with the pace of new product launches and cost reductions in MiniLED technology [13]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a recovery in capital sentiment, with significant gains in various sectors, particularly in steel and photovoltaic industries, driven by a new wave of "de-involution" and capacity reduction initiatives from the government [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the week of June 30 to July 4, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% to close at 3472.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25% and the ChiNext Index by 1.50% [2]. - The steel and photovoltaic sectors experienced a surge, with photovoltaic glass prices rising over 10% during the week [2]. Group 2: Institutional Research - A total of 158 listed companies disclosed institutional research minutes, with over 70% of the researched stocks achieving positive returns [2]. - Taotao Automotive was the most favored stock by institutions, achieving a remarkable gain of 29.82% during the week [3]. Group 3: Company Highlights - Taotao Automotive, a leader in the North American leisure vehicle market, reported an expected net profit of 310 million to 360 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 70.34% to 97.81% [3]. - Shunwang Technology, a core supplier in the esports service sector, discussed its multi-layered computing power service system and AI computing power platform during institutional interactions [4]. - Xinjie Electric, focused on industrial automation, highlighted its advancements in core components for humanoid robots, including hollow cup motors and high-performance optical encoders [5]. - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy is developing new profit growth points, including high-stability lithium supplement materials and a new structure cathode material with improved energy density and performance [6].

Market Overview - A-shares showed a recovery in capital sentiment during the week of June 30 to July 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% to close at 3472.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.50% [1] Sector Performance - Various sectors experienced a surge, particularly steel and photovoltaic industries, which saw a wave of limit-up trading. The photovoltaic glass sector rose over 10% during the week, while themes such as CRO (Contract Research Organizations), innovative drugs, and vitamins also performed actively [1] - The central financial committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need to address "involution" competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, initiating a new round of "anti-involution" and capacity reduction actions, particularly in the photovoltaic, steel, and cement industries [1] Institutional Research - A total of 158 listed companies disclosed institutional research minutes during the week, with over 70% of the researched stocks achieving positive returns. Taotao Vehicle emerged as the most favored stock by institutions, achieving a remarkable gain of 29.82% [1] - Taotao Vehicle, which has seen its stock price double since early June, received attention from 137 institutions, including Bosera Fund and China Universal Asset Management. The company anticipates a net profit of 310 million to 360 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 70.34% to 97.81% [2] - Another company, Shunwang Technology, also attracted over a hundred institutional researchers, focusing on its core services in the esports sector and its advancements in computing power and AI capabilities [2] Company Developments - Xinjie Electric, specializing in industrial automation, was researched by 92 institutions, with a focus on its developments in core components for humanoid robots, including hollow cup motors and frameless torque motors [3] - Jingbeifang, which had previously engaged with multiple institutions, highlighted the advantages of stablecoins over traditional cross-border payment methods and its focus on the development of RWA (Real World Assets) [3] - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, which received attention from 76 institutions, is developing new profit growth points, including high-stability lithium supplement materials and a new structure cathode material that offers significant improvements in energy density and performance [4]

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed flat compared to the previous day, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.1%, the STAR 50 decreased by 0.3%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.3%. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.4% [4][6]. - The best-performing sectors on Thursday included non-ferrous metals (+1.4%), media (+1.3%), beauty and personal care (+1.3%), pharmaceutical and biological (+1.3%), and telecommunications (+1.0%). The worst-performing sectors were home appliances (-1.8%), coal (-1.1%), food and beverage (-1.1%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.1%), and real estate (-0.6%) [4][6]. - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 12,718 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 5.59 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][6]. Important Insights Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has seen an increase in the success rate of bullish positions, although the odds remain insufficient. The probability of the equity market breaking through key levels is higher [7]. - A significant condition for bonds to break through previous lows is likely a further reduction in policy interest rates. The unexpected monetary easing since late May has not been sufficient to support a substantial decline in long-term rates [7]. - Potential positive factors for the stock market have not been fully priced in, with attention on Sino-US negotiations and domestic policy developments in China [7]. Company Analysis: TaoTao Automotive - TaoTao Automotive's US subsidiary, RevEdge Inc., has signed an investment agreement with K-Scale Labs, a player in humanoid robotics. This partnership aims to integrate manufacturing and sales advantages with K-Scale's technological expertise [8]. - The investment in K-Scale is expected to enhance the company's position in the humanoid robotics sector, with a focus on electric low-speed vehicles [8]. - Catalysts for growth include exceeding order expectations and an optimized competitive landscape [8]. Company Analysis: XCMG Machinery - XCMG Group has signed a global framework agreement with BHP for the supply of mining equipment, marking a significant step towards becoming a global leader in engineering machinery [9]. - The collaboration will focus on joint equipment research and development, lifecycle management, and localized service systems [9]. - Growth opportunities include exceeding order expectations and increased investment in real estate and infrastructure [9].