Core Viewpoint - The latest financial data for May indicates a mixed economic outlook, with M1 growth reaching a one-year high but a significant decrease in liquidity, suggesting ongoing issues with consumer and investment sentiment [1][2][4]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth increased by 2.3%, reaching a new high for the year, but a month-on-month decrease of 230.7 billion indicates reduced liquidity for businesses and households [1]. - M2 growth stands at 7.9%, reflecting a stable monetary supply [1]. Social Financing - Social financing increased by 2.3 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, maintaining an 8.7% growth rate [5]. - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with an increase of 1.4633 trillion, accounting for 64% of the total new social financing [9][10]. Loan Dynamics - New loans in May totaled 620 billion, a decrease of 330 billion year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period [12]. - The reluctance of both businesses and households to borrow is attributed to overcapacity and weak demand, with consumer loans also declining [13][14]. Consumer Subsidies - Local governments are pausing national subsidies due to budget constraints, with over 210 billion of the planned 300 billion already consumed by mid-year [16][17]. - The rapid consumption of subsidy funds raises concerns about the sustainability of consumer incentives [17]. Real Estate Market - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with medium to long-term loans for housing increasing by 746 billion, indicating a resurgence in homebuyer demand [19]. - However, the market remains cautious, with a significant portion of potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach due to unstable price expectations [21]. Future Outlook - The recovery of the real estate market is expected to occur in phases, starting with stabilizing transaction volumes, followed by improvements in second-hand property sales, and ultimately leading to increased new property sales [24][26][27].

Group 1 - The UK economy faced its most severe monthly decline in 18 months, with April GDP shrinking by 0.3%, significantly worse than the expected contraction of 0.1% [2][3] - The decline marks the end of a brief recovery earlier in the year, where Q1 GDP had grown by 0.7%, outperforming both the Eurozone and the US [3] - The drop in exports to the US, attributed to tariff policies, has severely impacted overall economic performance, revealing the UK's reliance on foreign trade [4] Group 2 - The global trade environment has worsened, leading to increased caution among local businesses, particularly affecting investment decisions [5] - Structural issues, including long-term low investment and stagnant productivity, have weakened the UK's economic growth foundation, exacerbated by Brexit and the pandemic [7] - Recent tax reforms and increased operational costs due to higher employer taxes and minimum wage hikes are adding further burdens on businesses [7] Group 3 - The labor market, previously resilient, is now facing pressures that could lead to a surge in unemployment, with companies experiencing hiring freezes and layoffs [8]