一项对经济学家的调查显示，日本经济在连续五个季度增长后，可能会在第三季度出现收缩，原因是美 国总统特朗普发起的关税行动对日本的出口造成了冲击。根据58位经济学家的预估中值，日本第三季度 国内生产总值(GDP)预计将同比下降1.2%。而在此前的调查中，经济学家原先预计日本第三季度GDP将 同比微增0.1%——如果该预期成真，日本经济的扩张将延续至第六个季度。日本第三季度GDP数据将 于11月17日公布。 受调查的经济学家认为，作为全球第四大经济体的日本正受到美国关税的显著冲击，预计第三季度出口 将环比下降4%，这一降幅较此前预估的3.1%进一步扩大。 数据显示，日本7月和8月出口均出现下降，其中对美国的出口跌幅尤为明显。尽管日本与美国在7月底 达成贸易协议，美国将日本出口商品的关税税率固定在15%，但该水平仍高于此前。这给日本出口企业 的利润带来压力。许多企业似乎已选择降价吸收部分关税冲击，以减轻消费者负担。 此外，经济学家预计，日本私人消费将增长0.5%，主要受益于今年春季劳资谈判带来的工资增长。不 过，日本核心通胀指标仍远高于央行2%的目标，持续侵蚀日本家庭购买力。 潜在的经济低迷可能会为几乎确定将成为下一 ...

新华财经北京9月18日电由于失业率上升和全球不确定性抑制了需求，新西兰第二季度经济萎缩幅度远 远超过经济学家的预期。周四公布的数据显示，该国第一季度GDP经修正后增长0.9%，但在截至6月份 的三个月里下降0.9%，此前经济学家预计为收缩0.3%。 去年经历了严重衰退的新西兰经济，对央行大幅降息的反应迟缓。需求降温预计将减轻通胀压力，使新 西兰联储有可能在今年年底前进一步下调利率。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing activity in New York sharply declined in September due to a significant drop in demand, with the New York Fed manufacturing index falling nearly 21 points to -8.7, below the market expectation of 5, indicating economic contraction [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - The New York Fed manufacturing index dropped to -8.7, signaling a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - New orders and shipments fell to their lowest levels since April 2024 [1] - The ISM manufacturing index has contracted for six consecutive months as of August [1] Group 2: Employment and Future Outlook - The manufacturing employment index shrank for the first time since May, and the work hours index also declined [1] - The future expectations index for manufacturing appears more optimistic than the current situation, although the official statement notes that "optimism remains relatively low" [1]

Group 1 - The Canadian economy faced a GDP decline of 1.6% in the second quarter, indicating ongoing challenges ahead [1] - The economic contraction was primarily driven by severe net trade impacts, although the likelihood of a similar situation recurring is low [1] - Revised GDP data for June and preliminary estimates for July suggest insufficient economic growth momentum, indicating that third-quarter performance may fall short of the Bank of Canada's previous expectations [1] Group 2 - Capital Economics posits that the Bank of Canada may soon resume interest rate cuts in response to weakened economic growth and heightened downside risks [1] - The USD/CAD exchange rate is testing the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3801, with a potential breakthrough improving short-term price momentum [1] - If the USD/CAD surpasses the 1.3801 level, it may target the four-month high of 1.3924 established on August 22, with further resistance at the five-month high of 1.4016 reached on May 13 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canada's GDP contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, marking the first decline in seven quarters, slightly exceeding the Bank of Canada's July forecast of a 1.5% decrease [1] Economic Performance - The contraction in GDP was primarily due to a significant drop in goods exports and reduced business investment in machinery and equipment [1] - Exports fell by 7.5% in the second quarter, heavily impacted by U.S. tariffs, with passenger car and light truck exports plummeting by 24.7%, industrial machinery and equipment exports declining by 18.5%, and tourism service exports decreasing by 11.1% [1] Domestic Demand - Despite the export decline, domestic demand grew by 3.5%, indicating a relatively healthy domestic economic condition [1] - Increases in business inventories, growth in household spending, and a reduction in goods imports helped mitigate the negative impacts of the export downturn [1] Future Implications - Analysts suggest that the unexpected extent of the economic slowdown may increase the likelihood of the Bank of Canada lowering interest rates in September to stimulate economic recovery [1]

Economic Performance - Germany's GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q2, worse than the initial estimate of a 0.1% decline, primarily due to a significant drop in manufacturing performance following the end of inventory buildup by U.S. companies [1][3] - Investment in Germany decreased by 1.4%, and private consumption did not provide the expected support to the economy [1][3] Economic Outlook - The economic contraction represents a major setback for Germany, undermining expectations of recovery from the economic downturn caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - The German economy is experiencing a reversal of the inventory buildup effect and is facing the initial comprehensive impact of U.S. tariffs, with a potential stagnation expected until next year [3] - The German central bank warned that GDP may not grow in Q3, with stagnation being the most likely outcome [3] External Factors - Germany's economy is affected by global economic sluggishness, geopolitical uncertainties, and long-standing issues such as an aging workforce and bureaucratic inefficiencies [3] - A recent agreement between the EU and the U.S. to impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods has faced strong criticism from the German industrial sector [3] Recent Developments - Despite the economic challenges, there is some optimism due to the new government's plans for significant increases in defense and infrastructure spending, which are expected to show effects by 2026 [3] - The S&P Global's German Composite Purchasing Managers' Index indicated an unexpected acceleration in private sector activity in August, suggesting that the manufacturing sector may be nearing the end of a three-year slump [4]

Core Viewpoint - The German economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, contrasting with a 0.4% growth in the first quarter, primarily due to weakened demand from the United States [1] Economic Performance - The contraction in the second quarter is attributed to a slowdown in U.S. demand, which previously led to increased imports of German goods as importers anticipated higher tariffs [1] - Investment in Germany saw a decline in the second quarter, while consumption and government spending increased compared to the previous three months [1]

Economic Performance - The UK economy has entered a recession for the second consecutive month, with May GDP declining by 0.1%, slightly better than April's 0.3% drop but still below economists' expectations of a 0.1% growth [1] - If June's output falls by 0.4% or more, the second quarter will show a significant deterioration compared to the 0.7% growth in the first quarter [1] Currency and Fiscal Pressure - Following the data release, the British pound fell by 0.3% to 1.3545 USD, reflecting ongoing economic concerns [1] - The Labour government faces dual pressures to support fiscal spending goals through economic growth while managing recent policy reversals that have exacerbated fiscal challenges [1] Sector Performance - Manufacturing and construction sectors were the main contributors to the economic decline, with May output experiencing the largest drop in nearly 18 months [3] - The decline is attributed to ongoing economic weakness from April, U.S. tariff pressures, and rising household energy bills and property taxes [3] - The services sector also showed weak performance, with only a 0.1% growth in May, and retail sales significantly decreased [3] Employment and Taxation - Employers are facing an additional £26 billion in new payroll taxes, alongside rising regulated prices for services like rail fares and water, which are contributing to the economic downturn [5] - Since the budget announcement last October, over 250,000 jobs have been cut as businesses respond to significant increases in minimum wage [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - With inflation pressures easing, the market anticipates that the Bank of England will initiate interest rate cuts in August, with another expected by the end of the year [5] - Analysts suggest that the growth seen in the first quarter was a one-off event, primarily driven by preemptive production increases before the implementation of U.S. tariffs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The UK economy has contracted for the second consecutive month, indicating challenges for businesses and consumers in recovering from tariffs and tax increases [1] Economic Performance - In May, the GDP decreased by 0.1% following a 0.3% contraction in the previous month, suggesting a potential economic shrinkage in the second quarter [1] - The ongoing economic difficulties are compounded by recent political setbacks faced by the government [1] Government Response - The Labour government is relying on stronger economic growth to fund its spending goals, which have been complicated by a significant policy shift regarding welfare cuts and winter fuel payments for pensioners [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canada is expected to experience an economic contraction in Q2, with consecutive declines in April and May, marking the first such occurrence since 2017 before the pandemic [1] Economic Outlook - Desjardins economists predict a slight contraction in Canada's GDP for the second quarter, indicating a downturn in economic activity [1] - The tracking of Q2 GDP by Desjardins shows clearer signs of this mild contraction [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The expectation is that the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates in the upcoming month in response to the economic conditions [1]