Group 1 - The Japanese yen has been rapidly depreciating against the US dollar, causing significant concern from Japan's Finance Minister, who described the situation as "very one-sided and rapid" [1] - The depreciation of the yen is increasing the cost of imported goods, putting pressure on households and small businesses in Japan [1] - The Japanese government is closely monitoring the situation and may intervene based on a previously signed joint statement with the US if conditions worsen [1] Group 2 - Japan's latest inflation data shows that inflation is worsening, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3.0% year-on-year in October, marking the 50th consecutive month of increase [3][5] - The government has approved a comprehensive economic strategy worth approximately 21.3 trillion yen (about 965.6 billion RMB), with the 2025 fiscal year supplementary budget expected to reach a record high [2] - Concerns are growing regarding Japan's fiscal health as increased tax revenues are insufficient to cover rising expenditures, leading to reliance on additional bond issuance [2] Group 3 - The Japanese economy has experienced a contraction, with the real GDP decreasing by 0.4% in Q3 2025, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [3] - The rising prices of essential goods, such as rice and eggs, are contributing to the financial strain on Japanese citizens, with rice prices up by 40.2% year-on-year [5] - The stock market has reacted negatively, with significant declines in indices such as the Nikkei 225, which fell by 2.40% on November 21 [5] Group 4 - The tourism and dining sectors in Japan are facing a sharp decline in revenue due to a significant number of Chinese tourists canceling their travel plans following advisories from the Chinese government [6] - The suspension of Japanese seafood imports by China has further impacted the fishing industry, which was previously seeing progress in exports [6]

Core Points - Japan's inflation problem is worsening, increasing the burden on citizens [2][12] - The government has announced a record economic stimulus package to boost the struggling economy, but concerns about fiscal deterioration are rising [2][4] - The depreciation of the yen is exacerbating inflationary pressures [18][20] Economic Measures - The Japanese government approved a comprehensive economic strategy worth approximately 21.3 trillion yen (about 96.56 billion RMB), with the 2025 supplementary budget reaching a new high since 2022 [2][4] - The 2025 fiscal year's supplementary budget is expected to be around 17.7 trillion yen, marking a 27% increase from the previous year's budget of 13.9 trillion yen [4] Market Reactions - There is growing skepticism among Tokyo citizens regarding the government's ability to effectively implement the budget, leading to a sell-off of the yen and Japanese bonds [6][8] - The market's lack of confidence in Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's administration has resulted in significant asset sell-offs [10][12] Inflation Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, continuing a trend of rising prices for over 50 months [13][15] - Prices for rice have surged by 40.2% year-on-year, with eggs also seeing a 13.6% increase, contributing to the financial strain on households [15][17] Economic Challenges - Japan's economy has contracted for the first time in six quarters, with a 0.4% decrease in GDP in Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing economic struggles [12][10] - The country faces structural issues, including high national debt, persistent inflation, and declining real wages, which are undermining domestic demand and market confidence [20][22] Government's Economic Strategy - Analysts suggest that the government's economic measures may provide short-term relief but fail to address fundamental economic issues [22] - The strategy is criticized for being a "borrow new debt to pay old debt" approach, which does not contribute to fiscal health [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The euro has risen against the yen, surpassing 180 yen, marking a historical high, with an overall increase of over 0.2% during the day [1] Economic Context - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday to discuss support measures for the economy, which has contracted during the summer [1] - Recent data indicates that Japan's economy shrank in the three months ending in September due to decreased exports caused by U.S. tariffs and a sharp decline in real estate purchases [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.8% in Q3, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.4%, which, although better than the market expectation of a 2.5% drop, indicates increasing pressure on monetary and fiscal policies [2] Economic Performance - External demand turned negative, contributing -0.2 percentage points to GDP, a shift from the previous quarter's positive contribution of 0.2 percentage points [2] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a 24.2% year-on-year drop in September for automotive exports, which is the largest segment of Japan's exports to the U.S. [2] - Overall exports decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter amid weak global demand [2] Domestic Demand - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of GDP, only increased by 0.1%, a slowdown from 0.4% in the previous quarter, primarily due to high food prices suppressing household spending [2] - Business equipment investment grew by 1.0%, exceeding market expectations and serving as one of the few bright spots in the economy [2] - Residential investment declined significantly due to stricter environmental standards for new housing [2] Inflation and Government Response - The GDP deflator index rose by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating persistent underlying inflation [2] - The Japanese government plans to implement an economic stimulus package exceeding 17 trillion yen this week [2] - The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates at 0.5% last month, indicating a potential for further tightening if economic conditions align with expectations [2]

Group 1 - Japan's economy is expected to contract in the third quarter after five consecutive quarters of growth, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [1][4] - Economists predict a year-on-year decline of 1.2% in Japan's GDP for the third quarter, a significant shift from previous expectations of a 0.1% increase [1][4] - The third quarter GDP data is scheduled to be released on November 17 [1] Group 2 - The potential economic downturn may provide support for the economic stimulus plan proposed by the new Liberal Democratic Party president, Sanae Takaichi [4] - Takaichi faces various economic challenges, including inflation pressures and trade tensions, with a focus on consolidating political support [4] - The Bank of Japan may slow down its interest rate hikes in response to the economic slowdown, with a monetary policy decision expected on October 30 [4] Group 3 - Economists forecast a 4% quarter-on-quarter decline in Japan's exports for the third quarter, worsening from a previous estimate of 3.1% [4] - Exports to the U.S. have seen significant declines, despite a trade agreement that fixed the tariff rate at 15%, which is still higher than before [4] - Many Japanese companies are reportedly lowering prices to absorb some of the tariff impacts and alleviate the burden on consumers [4] Group 4 - Private consumption in Japan is expected to grow by 0.5%, benefiting from wage increases resulting from spring labor negotiations [5] - However, core inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, continuing to erode household purchasing power [5]

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's economy contracted more than expected in the second quarter due to rising unemployment and global uncertainties affecting demand [1] Economic Performance - The revised GDP for the first quarter showed a growth of 0.9%, while the GDP for the three months ending in June decreased by 0.9%, contrasting with economists' expectations of a 0.3% contraction [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The sluggish response of the economy to significant interest rate cuts by the central bank suggests that cooling demand may alleviate inflationary pressures, potentially allowing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to further lower interest rates by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing activity in New York sharply declined in September due to a significant drop in demand, with the New York Fed manufacturing index falling nearly 21 points to -8.7, below the market expectation of 5, indicating economic contraction [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - The New York Fed manufacturing index dropped to -8.7, signaling a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - New orders and shipments fell to their lowest levels since April 2024 [1] - The ISM manufacturing index has contracted for six consecutive months as of August [1] Group 2: Employment and Future Outlook - The manufacturing employment index shrank for the first time since May, and the work hours index also declined [1] - The future expectations index for manufacturing appears more optimistic than the current situation, although the official statement notes that "optimism remains relatively low" [1]

Group 1 - The Canadian economy faced a GDP decline of 1.6% in the second quarter, indicating ongoing challenges ahead [1] - The economic contraction was primarily driven by severe net trade impacts, although the likelihood of a similar situation recurring is low [1] - Revised GDP data for June and preliminary estimates for July suggest insufficient economic growth momentum, indicating that third-quarter performance may fall short of the Bank of Canada's previous expectations [1] Group 2 - Capital Economics posits that the Bank of Canada may soon resume interest rate cuts in response to weakened economic growth and heightened downside risks [1] - The USD/CAD exchange rate is testing the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3801, with a potential breakthrough improving short-term price momentum [1] - If the USD/CAD surpasses the 1.3801 level, it may target the four-month high of 1.3924 established on August 22, with further resistance at the five-month high of 1.4016 reached on May 13 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canada's GDP contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, marking the first decline in seven quarters, slightly exceeding the Bank of Canada's July forecast of a 1.5% decrease [1] Economic Performance - The contraction in GDP was primarily due to a significant drop in goods exports and reduced business investment in machinery and equipment [1] - Exports fell by 7.5% in the second quarter, heavily impacted by U.S. tariffs, with passenger car and light truck exports plummeting by 24.7%, industrial machinery and equipment exports declining by 18.5%, and tourism service exports decreasing by 11.1% [1] Domestic Demand - Despite the export decline, domestic demand grew by 3.5%, indicating a relatively healthy domestic economic condition [1] - Increases in business inventories, growth in household spending, and a reduction in goods imports helped mitigate the negative impacts of the export downturn [1] Future Implications - Analysts suggest that the unexpected extent of the economic slowdown may increase the likelihood of the Bank of Canada lowering interest rates in September to stimulate economic recovery [1]

Economic Performance - Germany's GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q2, worse than the initial estimate of a 0.1% decline, primarily due to a significant drop in manufacturing performance following the end of inventory buildup by U.S. companies [1][3] - Investment in Germany decreased by 1.4%, and private consumption did not provide the expected support to the economy [1][3] Economic Outlook - The economic contraction represents a major setback for Germany, undermining expectations of recovery from the economic downturn caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - The German economy is experiencing a reversal of the inventory buildup effect and is facing the initial comprehensive impact of U.S. tariffs, with a potential stagnation expected until next year [3] - The German central bank warned that GDP may not grow in Q3, with stagnation being the most likely outcome [3] External Factors - Germany's economy is affected by global economic sluggishness, geopolitical uncertainties, and long-standing issues such as an aging workforce and bureaucratic inefficiencies [3] - A recent agreement between the EU and the U.S. to impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods has faced strong criticism from the German industrial sector [3] Recent Developments - Despite the economic challenges, there is some optimism due to the new government's plans for significant increases in defense and infrastructure spending, which are expected to show effects by 2026 [3] - The S&P Global's German Composite Purchasing Managers' Index indicated an unexpected acceleration in private sector activity in August, suggesting that the manufacturing sector may be nearing the end of a three-year slump [4]