伊福经济研究所数据显示，2025年第三季度德国16个联邦州中，半数出现经济萎缩。萨尔州经济环比下 降0.6%，降幅最大；莱茵兰-普法尔茨与石勒苏益格-荷尔斯泰因两州均下降0.4%。专家指出，工业持续 疲软及结构性转型对各地影响不均，是造成区域分化的重要原因。其中，南部经济重镇巴登-符腾堡与 巴伐利亚虽在本季度分别增长0.2%和0.5%，但预计2025年全年仍将萎缩，部分原因在于美国关税压 力。另一方面，汉堡以0.6%的增幅领先，下萨克森与萨克森州也实现小幅增长。柏林、梅克伦堡-前波 美拉尼亚与不来梅等州虽在第三季度表现平淡，但预计2025年全年仍能保持整体增长态势。 ...

12月8日，日本内阁府公布的修正数据显示，日本第三季度实际GDP年化季率终值萎缩2.3%，这一数字 不仅比初值1.8%的跌幅更为严峻，也超出了市场普遍预期的2%收缩幅度。 这是日本经济自2024年第一季度以来，时隔六个季度再次陷入萎缩。最新数据显示，日本经济正以自 2023年第三季度以来最快的速度收缩。 经济萎缩 从季度环比来看，剔除通胀因素后的实际GDP在7月至9月期间收缩了0.6%，比初步估计的0.4%降幅更 为严重。 数据显示，占日本经济总量超过一半的私人消费终值微增0.2%，略高于初步估计的0.1%增幅。 不过，作为衡量私人需求关键指标的资本开支反而下降了0.2%，与初值1.0%的增长形成鲜明对比。 外部需求（出口减去进口）使GDP减少了0.2个百分点，与初步数据一致。 面对经济萎缩，日本首相高市早苗领导的政府已经于11月敲定了规模约为21.3万亿日元的综合经济对 策。 这项支出的核心是物价纾困，包含多项直接针对家庭的财政支持措施，例如能源成本补贴、育儿家庭补 助以及税收减免等，旨在缓解民众的生活成本压力。 数据显示，2025年日本已有超过2万种食品涨价，核心消费者价格指数（CPI）已连续49个月同比 ...

日本5年期国债收益率上行至1.44%，创2008年6月以来新高。日本10年期国债收益率升至1.955%，为 2007年7月以来最高水平。日本30年期国债收益率上行2.5个基点，至3.380%。日本11月经济观察家前景 指数50.3，远不及预期53.1。早间，日本发布的三季度GDP超预期萎缩。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

日本经济在第三季度的萎缩幅度超出最初预估，修正数据显示这是六个季度以来的首次收缩，这为日本 经济刺激方案进一步提供了合理性。 日本政府周一发布数据显示，第三季度GDP折合年率萎缩2.3%，较初步预估的1.8%降幅进一步扩大， 预期中值跌幅为2%，这是六个季度以来的首次下降，主要受企业支出低于预期的影响。 数据发布后，十年期日本国债收益率有所下行，目前十年期国债收益率上涨至1.953%，日本20年期国 债收益率上行2.4BP，升至2.946%。此前日债因市场对日本央行近期加息预期升温而大幅攀升。 | 日本10年期国债收益率 | 1.953 10:01:14 | +0.004 | +0.21% | 1.948 - 1.955 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | JP10YR | | | | | | 日本20年期国债收益率 | 2.946 10:01:11 | +0.024 | +0.82% | 2.934 - 2.946 | | JP20YR | | | | | | 日本2年期国债收益率 JP2YR | 1.045 09:11:12 | -0.002 | -0.19% | 1. ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has been rapidly depreciating against the US dollar, causing significant concern from Japan's Finance Minister, who described the situation as "very one-sided and rapid" [1] - The depreciation of the yen is increasing the cost of imported goods, putting pressure on households and small businesses in Japan [1] - The Japanese government is closely monitoring the situation and may intervene based on a previously signed joint statement with the US if conditions worsen [1] Group 2 - Japan's latest inflation data shows that inflation is worsening, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3.0% year-on-year in October, marking the 50th consecutive month of increase [3][5] - The government has approved a comprehensive economic strategy worth approximately 21.3 trillion yen (about 965.6 billion RMB), with the 2025 fiscal year supplementary budget expected to reach a record high [2] - Concerns are growing regarding Japan's fiscal health as increased tax revenues are insufficient to cover rising expenditures, leading to reliance on additional bond issuance [2] Group 3 - The Japanese economy has experienced a contraction, with the real GDP decreasing by 0.4% in Q3 2025, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [3] - The rising prices of essential goods, such as rice and eggs, are contributing to the financial strain on Japanese citizens, with rice prices up by 40.2% year-on-year [5] - The stock market has reacted negatively, with significant declines in indices such as the Nikkei 225, which fell by 2.40% on November 21 [5] Group 4 - The tourism and dining sectors in Japan are facing a sharp decline in revenue due to a significant number of Chinese tourists canceling their travel plans following advisories from the Chinese government [6] - The suspension of Japanese seafood imports by China has further impacted the fishing industry, which was previously seeing progress in exports [6]

Core Points - Japan's inflation problem is worsening, increasing the burden on citizens [2][12] - The government has announced a record economic stimulus package to boost the struggling economy, but concerns about fiscal deterioration are rising [2][4] - The depreciation of the yen is exacerbating inflationary pressures [18][20] Economic Measures - The Japanese government approved a comprehensive economic strategy worth approximately 21.3 trillion yen (about 96.56 billion RMB), with the 2025 supplementary budget reaching a new high since 2022 [2][4] - The 2025 fiscal year's supplementary budget is expected to be around 17.7 trillion yen, marking a 27% increase from the previous year's budget of 13.9 trillion yen [4] Market Reactions - There is growing skepticism among Tokyo citizens regarding the government's ability to effectively implement the budget, leading to a sell-off of the yen and Japanese bonds [6][8] - The market's lack of confidence in Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's administration has resulted in significant asset sell-offs [10][12] Inflation Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, continuing a trend of rising prices for over 50 months [13][15] - Prices for rice have surged by 40.2% year-on-year, with eggs also seeing a 13.6% increase, contributing to the financial strain on households [15][17] Economic Challenges - Japan's economy has contracted for the first time in six quarters, with a 0.4% decrease in GDP in Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing economic struggles [12][10] - The country faces structural issues, including high national debt, persistent inflation, and declining real wages, which are undermining domestic demand and market confidence [20][22] Government's Economic Strategy - Analysts suggest that the government's economic measures may provide short-term relief but fail to address fundamental economic issues [22] - The strategy is criticized for being a "borrow new debt to pay old debt" approach, which does not contribute to fiscal health [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The euro has risen against the yen, surpassing 180 yen, marking a historical high, with an overall increase of over 0.2% during the day [1] Economic Context - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday to discuss support measures for the economy, which has contracted during the summer [1] - Recent data indicates that Japan's economy shrank in the three months ending in September due to decreased exports caused by U.S. tariffs and a sharp decline in real estate purchases [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.8% in Q3, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.4%, which, although better than the market expectation of a 2.5% drop, indicates increasing pressure on monetary and fiscal policies [2] Economic Performance - External demand turned negative, contributing -0.2 percentage points to GDP, a shift from the previous quarter's positive contribution of 0.2 percentage points [2] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a 24.2% year-on-year drop in September for automotive exports, which is the largest segment of Japan's exports to the U.S. [2] - Overall exports decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter amid weak global demand [2] Domestic Demand - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of GDP, only increased by 0.1%, a slowdown from 0.4% in the previous quarter, primarily due to high food prices suppressing household spending [2] - Business equipment investment grew by 1.0%, exceeding market expectations and serving as one of the few bright spots in the economy [2] - Residential investment declined significantly due to stricter environmental standards for new housing [2] Inflation and Government Response - The GDP deflator index rose by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating persistent underlying inflation [2] - The Japanese government plans to implement an economic stimulus package exceeding 17 trillion yen this week [2] - The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates at 0.5% last month, indicating a potential for further tightening if economic conditions align with expectations [2]

Group 1 - Japan's economy is expected to contract in the third quarter after five consecutive quarters of growth, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [1][4] - Economists predict a year-on-year decline of 1.2% in Japan's GDP for the third quarter, a significant shift from previous expectations of a 0.1% increase [1][4] - The third quarter GDP data is scheduled to be released on November 17 [1] Group 2 - The potential economic downturn may provide support for the economic stimulus plan proposed by the new Liberal Democratic Party president, Sanae Takaichi [4] - Takaichi faces various economic challenges, including inflation pressures and trade tensions, with a focus on consolidating political support [4] - The Bank of Japan may slow down its interest rate hikes in response to the economic slowdown, with a monetary policy decision expected on October 30 [4] Group 3 - Economists forecast a 4% quarter-on-quarter decline in Japan's exports for the third quarter, worsening from a previous estimate of 3.1% [4] - Exports to the U.S. have seen significant declines, despite a trade agreement that fixed the tariff rate at 15%, which is still higher than before [4] - Many Japanese companies are reportedly lowering prices to absorb some of the tariff impacts and alleviate the burden on consumers [4] Group 4 - Private consumption in Japan is expected to grow by 0.5%, benefiting from wage increases resulting from spring labor negotiations [5] - However, core inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, continuing to erode household purchasing power [5]

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's economy contracted more than expected in the second quarter due to rising unemployment and global uncertainties affecting demand [1] Economic Performance - The revised GDP for the first quarter showed a growth of 0.9%, while the GDP for the three months ending in June decreased by 0.9%, contrasting with economists' expectations of a 0.3% contraction [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The sluggish response of the economy to significant interest rate cuts by the central bank suggests that cooling demand may alleviate inflationary pressures, potentially allowing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to further lower interest rates by the end of the year [1]