Economic Performance - The UK economy has entered a recession for the second consecutive month, with May GDP declining by 0.1%, slightly better than April's 0.3% drop but still below economists' expectations of a 0.1% growth [1] - If June's output falls by 0.4% or more, the second quarter will show a significant deterioration compared to the 0.7% growth in the first quarter [1] Currency and Fiscal Pressure - Following the data release, the British pound fell by 0.3% to 1.3545 USD, reflecting ongoing economic concerns [1] - The Labour government faces dual pressures to support fiscal spending goals through economic growth while managing recent policy reversals that have exacerbated fiscal challenges [1] Sector Performance - Manufacturing and construction sectors were the main contributors to the economic decline, with May output experiencing the largest drop in nearly 18 months [3] - The decline is attributed to ongoing economic weakness from April, U.S. tariff pressures, and rising household energy bills and property taxes [3] - The services sector also showed weak performance, with only a 0.1% growth in May, and retail sales significantly decreased [3] Employment and Taxation - Employers are facing an additional £26 billion in new payroll taxes, alongside rising regulated prices for services like rail fares and water, which are contributing to the economic downturn [5] - Since the budget announcement last October, over 250,000 jobs have been cut as businesses respond to significant increases in minimum wage [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - With inflation pressures easing, the market anticipates that the Bank of England will initiate interest rate cuts in August, with another expected by the end of the year [5] - Analysts suggest that the growth seen in the first quarter was a one-off event, primarily driven by preemptive production increases before the implementation of U.S. tariffs [5]

英国经济连续第二个月录得萎缩，对斯塔默造成新打击 金十数据7月11日讯，英国经济连续第二个月萎缩，企业和消费者难以从美国关税和大量增税的打击中 恢复过来。周五公布的数据显示，5月份GDP继上月收缩0.3%后下降0.1%。这些数据表明，第二季度英 国经济可能出现萎缩，在经历了最近一系列政治挫折后，这对英国首相斯塔默和财政大臣里夫斯来说是 一个新的打击。工党政府正寄望于更强劲的经济增长，以帮助其为其支出目标提供资金。此前，英国政 府在削减福利支出和向养老金领取者发放冬季燃料补贴方面的态度出现180度大转弯，令本已艰难的财 政背景更加紧张。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Canada is expected to experience an economic contraction in Q2, with consecutive declines in April and May, marking the first such occurrence since 2017 before the pandemic [1] Economic Outlook - Desjardins economists predict a slight contraction in Canada's GDP for the second quarter, indicating a downturn in economic activity [1] - The tracking of Q2 GDP by Desjardins shows clearer signs of this mild contraction [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The expectation is that the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates in the upcoming month in response to the economic conditions [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. Department of Commerce reported a contraction in the economy, with a 0.5% annualized decline in the first quarter [1]

Group 1 - The UK economy faced its most severe monthly decline in 18 months, with April GDP shrinking by 0.3%, significantly worse than the expected contraction of 0.1% [2][3] - The decline marks the end of a brief recovery earlier in the year, where Q1 GDP had grown by 0.7%, outperforming both the Eurozone and the US [3] - The drop in exports to the US, attributed to tariff policies, has severely impacted overall economic performance, revealing the UK's reliance on foreign trade [4] Group 2 - The global trade environment has worsened, leading to increased caution among local businesses, particularly affecting investment decisions [5] - Structural issues, including long-term low investment and stagnant productivity, have weakened the UK's economic growth foundation, exacerbated by Brexit and the pandemic [7] - Recent tax reforms and increased operational costs due to higher employer taxes and minimum wage hikes are adding further burdens on businesses [7] Group 3 - The labor market, previously resilient, is now facing pressures that could lead to a surge in unemployment, with companies experiencing hiring freezes and layoffs [8]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 白银：跟随反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | 782.42 | -0.09% | 785.50 | 0.45% | | | 黄金T+D | 779.68 | 0.20% | 782.45 | 0.39% | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3397.40 | 0.61% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3374.00 | 0.43% | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 8463 | 0.09% | 8474.00 | 0.00% | | 期货及现货电 | 白银T+D | 8441 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The service sector activity in the U.S. fell into contraction for the first time in nearly a year due to a sharp decline in demand and the impact of tariff increases on the economy, leading to accelerated price rises [1] Group 1: Service Sector Performance - The ISM service index dropped by 1.7 points to 49.9 in May, indicating a contraction as it fell below the neutral level of 50, which was below market expectations [1] - The most significant decline was observed in new orders, while the prices paid index reached its highest level since the end of 2022, highlighting the pronounced effects of increased import tariffs on demand and inflation [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the ISM data, U.S. Treasury yields decreased, and the gains in the S&P 500 index narrowed [1] Group 3: Business Sentiment - Steve Miller, chairman of the ISM survey committee, noted that the overall index does not indicate severe contraction but reflects the uncertainty experienced by surveyed businesses [1] - Respondents reported challenges in forecasting and planning due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, leading to delays or reductions in orders until more clarity is achieved [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy has contracted for the first time in a year, with a preliminary annualized GDP decline of 0.7% in the first quarter, highlighting its vulnerability even before the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration [1] Economic Performance - The decline in exports and a surge in imports have negatively impacted net trade, contributing to the economic contraction in the first three months of the year [1] - Consumer spending, which accounts for about half of the economy, remained flat, and inflation has weakened purchasing power, keeping consumption below pre-pandemic levels [1] Political Implications - The economic shrinkage may spark ongoing political debates regarding the need for tax cuts or cash subsidies before the upcoming summer Senate elections [1]

Economic Data Summary - The US GDP growth rate for Q1 has significantly dropped from 2.4% to -0.3%, indicating an acceleration in economic decline and a contraction in the economy [2] - The ADP employment figures for April have also seen a substantial decrease from 147,000 to 62,000, suggesting a deterioration in the US job market [2] - The core PCE price index year-on-year has fallen from 3% to 2.6%, and the month-on-month figure has decreased from 0.5% to 0%, reflecting a continuing downward trend in inflation [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The latest economic data supports the notion that the Federal Reserve may consider resuming interest rate cuts in the upcoming May meeting [2] - However, there is uncertainty regarding the Fed's willingness to act quickly on rate cuts, as Chairman Powell has previously conveyed a cautious stance towards such measures [2] - If the Fed can implement timely rate cuts, it may help mitigate severe economic contraction, but there is concern that hesitation could lead to a more pronounced downturn [2][3]