Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the domestic economy, highlighting three main lines: export under trade friction, investment and consumption driven by policy stimulus, and the real endogenous power of the economy. It notes a temporary phase of "grabbing exports 2.0" due to easing US-China trade tensions, with a focus on the resilience of the economy in the second quarter [2]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - There is a divergence in the growth rates of subsidized and non-subsidized consumption, with service consumption growth gradually declining, indicating little change in endogenous consumption momentum. From January to April, retail sales grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with "trade-in" consumption contributing 1.1 percentage points to this growth [3]. - The growth rate of service consumption has decreased from 20% in 2023 to 6.2% in 2024 and 5.1% in April 2025, suggesting a plateau after a rebound [3]. - The consumption subsidy policy is expected to support retail sales growth in the second quarter, with an anticipated increase of 4.5%-5% in retail sales and a final consumption growth of 4.3% [28]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The 924 policy in real estate has shown a diminishing effect, with sales facing adjustment pressures. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year change in domestic commercial housing sales area was -2.8%, a significant improvement from -17.1% in 2024 [12]. - The second-hand housing market has performed better, with a year-on-year increase of 21.1% in transaction area from October 2024 to March 2025, raising the proportion of second-hand housing sales [12]. - However, by April, second-hand housing sales began to cool down, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.6% in 11 sample cities, indicating a potential downturn in the market [12]. Group 3: Investment and Economic Growth - Despite little change in endogenous economic momentum, consumption subsidies and export initiatives are expected to significantly support the economy in the second quarter, with a projected GDP growth rate of 5.2% for the quarter [28]. - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize around 4%, supported by "equipment updates" and related projects, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments showing year-on-year increases of 8.8% and 10.9%, respectively [28]. - The article anticipates a 3%-5% growth in exports in the second quarter, despite facing high base effects [30].

Investment Growth and Trends - Infrastructure investment in 2024 showed a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, with power, heat, gas, and water supply sectors leading at 23.9% growth[2] - Manufacturing investment also grew by 9.2% in 2024, outpacing overall fixed asset investment by 6 percentage points, highlighting its role as a key economic driver[3] - Real estate investment faced challenges, declining by 10.6% in 2024, with new housing sales down 12.9% and sales revenue down 17.1%[4] Challenges and Opportunities - Investment quality development is entering a new phase, facing challenges in addressing imbalances and enhancing core strengths[5] - China's per capita infrastructure capital stock is only 20% to 30% of that in developed countries, indicating significant investment needs in shortfall areas[4] - Despite traditional growth engines like real estate being under pressure, there is potential for resource optimization towards infrastructure and manufacturing[4] Future Outlook - Infrastructure investment is expected to remain robust, supported by special bonds and urban renewal policies, which will drive growth in 2025[6] - Manufacturing investment is poised for strategic opportunities, with significant investments in technology and digital infrastructure, such as Alibaba's plan to invest 380 billion RMB over three years[7] - Real estate investment is anticipated to recover with policy support, as financing mechanisms have already facilitated the construction of 14 million housing units[8]