Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Nickel and Stainless Steel, Tin, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors, and provides investment suggestions based on these analyses [1][2][3] Summaries by Metal Copper - Last Friday, Shanghai copper opened higher above the short - term moving average, driven by precious metal trading sentiment and a weak US dollar. The market is concerned about the impact of strikes at small copper mines in Chile and frequent road closures by a transport contractor on large copper mines. Indonesia's Grasberg is expected to resume operation at 85% capacity in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to domestic spot trading [1] Aluminum, Alumina and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 160 yuan, - 250 yuan, and 120 yuan respectively. The aluminum rod processing fee returned to negative. Geopolitical games have made the financial market sentiment fluctuate. The short - term market deviates from the weak fundamentals. Attention should be paid to whether a directional breakthrough can be formed in the high - level oscillation range. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, and the market activity is not high. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and tax adjustments have increased costs in some areas. The domestic alumina operating capacity is around 96 million tons, and there has been no production cut. The alumina balance remains in significant surplus. The average cash cost of using imported ore in Shanxi and Henan in the first quarter has dropped to around 2,600 yuan, and there is still some downward space for costs. The spot price of alumina is under pressure, and it needs to wait for large - scale production cuts to stabilize. When the basis weakens, short positions can be taken on the high side of the futures [2] Zinc - With low TC, domestic smelters are both reducing and resuming production, and the cost support is strong. The pressure on the supply side is limited, which supports the high - level operation of zinc prices. However, high - priced zinc still has a negative impact on the consumption side. The terminal orders of downstream enterprises are weak, and some enterprises have taken early holidays. As the Spring Festival approaches, in the game between cost and consumption, Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Due to consumption constraints, short positions can be taken before the festival [3] Lead - The supply of lead concentrate and waste batteries continues to be in short supply, and the cost - side support is still strong. In late January, primary lead smelters resumed production intensively. SMM 1 lead has been at a discount of over 100 yuan to the near - month futures contract. The lead ingot inventory has become visible, and the SMM lead social inventory has continued to rise to 35,200 tons. The terminal orders of battery enterprises are weak, the finished product inventory has accumulated, and the willingness to stock up before the Spring Festival is insufficient. In the game between cost and consumption, Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at a low level in the range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated at a high level, and the market trading was active. After the spot price of stainless steel reached a high, the downstream terminal's fear of high prices increased, and the purchasing was cautious. The actual trading was weak, and the trading was mainly concentrated in the arbitrage operations of futures - spot institutions. The goods were piled up in the circulation link. The arrival of goods at steel mills was limited, and although the inventory increased slightly, it was still at a low level. Traders were strongly willing to support prices, which supported the strong operation of the spot. The pure nickel inventory increased by 2,700 tons to 66,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory was 29,300 tons, and the stainless steel inventory remained basically unchanged at 844,000 tons. As the market shows fear of high prices, caution is recommended [6] Tin - Last Friday night, both domestic and international tin prices continued to rise. The market is optimistic about the huge investment around AI, which boosts the trading sentiment of the tin market's long - term demand. Tin prices are driven by investment funds, the LME spot discount has widened to $245, and the domestic tin social inventory of Steel Union has increased to 11,001 tons [7] Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, breaking through multiple integer thresholds and closing at around 166,000 yuan. Exchange policies have affected market participation. The continuously high lithium carbonate price may have led to the closing of a large number of hedging positions. The strong spot and long - position speculative positions are dominant, and the position structure is fragile. The total market inventory decreased by 800 tons to 109,000 tons. The smelter inventory remained basically unchanged at 19,800 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 38,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 51,500 tons. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down, mainly because downstream enterprises replenish inventory opportunistically, smelters are beginning to experience unsalable products, and traders' confidence in hoarding goods has wavered. The lithium carbonate futures price is in a high - level oscillation, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was boosted by the production cut expectation and rose to 9,000 yuan/ton, but the intraday increase was partially retracted. On the supply side, silicon furnaces in Inner Mongolia have been shut down, and there is an expectation of production cuts at a large factory in Xinjiang at the end of January. The industry's operating rate is clearly on a downward trend. On the demand side, each sector is generally weak: the polysilicon output in February may fall back to 90,000 tons, which will drag down the demand for industrial silicon; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon has stabilized at around 66%, and some enterprises in the recycled aluminum alloy may take early holidays, and the subsequent operating rate is likely to weaken. In terms of inventory, the current industrial silicon inventory has reached 556,000 tons, a slight increase of 1,000 tons week - on - week. Overall, although the fundamentals of industrial silicon have improved marginally, the downstream support is weak. It is expected that the industry will enter the inventory reduction pattern in February, but the inventory reduction amplitude is limited. The futures market is driven by the production cut expectation and has risen in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the 9,000 yuan/ton mark [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly higher, but the spot market's price cuts could not promote transactions, and the market was still dull. The average price of N - type materials was 540,000 yuan/ton. Affected by the high silver price, downstream enterprises are cautious about increasing production. The previously expected "rush to export" has not effectively driven the procurement of polysilicon. The inventory pressure continues to rise, the factory inventory has accumulated to 330,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts are increasing rapidly. The market expects the expansion of the delivery product range, but the official guidance is still pending from the exchange. The fundamentals and market expectations jointly suppress the rebound space of polysilicon, and it is expected that the market will continue to be under pressure [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views Copper - The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom center. However, in the short term, the sharp rise in prices has significantly suppressed real terminal demand, and the current copper price is overvalued to some extent. But in a macro - environment with high speculative sentiment and risk appetite, the short - term price may remain strong. The volatility of Shanghai copper options remains high, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify, with the main focus on the 99,000 - 100,000 support level [2]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, the zinc price continued to be strong. Domestic zinc concentrate production is in a reduction season, and the supply of domestic zinc ore is tight. The import window for zinc ore has opened, which may relieve the short - term supply pressure. The supply pressure of refined zinc has eased, and downstream demand has shown good performance. In the future, the price will be supported by tight domestic zinc ore and low zinc ingot inventory, and pressured by the expected supply of imported ore. The short - term price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - atmosphere, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [6]. Nickel - Due to the resonance of supply - side contraction expectations and geopolitical risks, the nickel price rose sharply. The spot of Jinchuan nickel resources is still tight, and the spot premium remains high. The price of nickel iron has a stronger bottom support, but the terminal demand is weak. Overall, the short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 142,000 - 152,000 range [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel disk was affected by raw - material disturbances and rose. The spot resources are generally tight, and the market sentiment is boosted by the expected tightening of the nickel ore market. The supply - side pressure has eased slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 13,500 - 14,200 range [9]. Tin - The tin price rose strongly. On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the export of tin ingots from Indonesia has basically completed the annual target. The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) may affect tin production. On the demand side, the tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. The short - term price is mainly affected by macro factors [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate disk continued to rise rapidly. The market's expectation of supply disturbances has been strengthened, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream demand maintains a certain resilience, but the orders in the power market have declined. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to liquidity risks and regulatory possibilities [16]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price followed the aluminum price and continued to reach new highs, but the spot - market trading was light. The cost is the main driving factor, and the market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand weak. The ADC12 price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,600 - 23,600 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide disk fluctuated widely, and the spot trading was light at the end of the year. The policy has stimulated the supply - side contraction expectation, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed. The aluminum oxide price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line and may follow the aluminum price to rise emotionally in the future. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum expected to run in the 23,800 - 24,800 yuan/ton range [21]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price was affected by the news of the organic - silicon monomer factory meeting. The 1 - month industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. The demand may decline, and the export may increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [22]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is firm, and the futures price rose and then fell. The upstream hopes to drive the price increase of the entire industry chain by holding up the price, but the downstream demand is weak. In January, the demand has no bright spots, and the price may rise while the volume falls. The polysilicon price will remain in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction efforts or price - decline pressure [24]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.07% to 103,665 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.58% to 103,815 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of various copper types and related indicators such as refined - scrap spread, LME 0 - 3, and import profit and loss have changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. In November, the electrolytic copper import volume was 27.11 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.90%. The inventory of various types has also changed [2]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 1.54% to 23,970 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount and other indicators have changed [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.24%. In November, the refined zinc import volume was 1.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%, and the export volume increased significantly. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 3.84% to 143,450 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of various nickel products and other indicators have changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, China's refined nickel production was 33,342 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38%. In November, the refined nickel import volume was 12,671 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.08%. The inventory of various types has also changed [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) increased by 0.76% to 13,300 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw materials and month - to - month spreads have changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 178.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%. The import and export volumes of stainless steel have also changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel has decreased slightly [9]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 2.85% to 341,050 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount, import profit and loss, and month - to - month spreads have changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the tin ore import volume was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81%. In December, the SMM refined tin production was 15,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. The inventory of various types has decreased to varying degrees [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6.69% to 127,500 yuan/ton, and the prices of related lithium products and spreads have changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the lithium carbonate production was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. The demand decreased by 2.50%, and the inventory of various types has decreased [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 1.73% to 23,500 yuan/ton, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum and month - to - month spreads have changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.74%. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [18]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 2.57% to 23,910 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related indicators such as import profit and loss and month - to - month spreads have changed [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The production of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory of various types has changed [21]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spreads have changed significantly [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production was 39.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. The production and operating rates in different regions and the production of related downstream products have changed, and the inventory has increased slightly [22]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 0.47% to 53,500 yuan/kg, and the futures price and month - to - month spreads have changed [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, import and export volumes, and inventory levels have all changed [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - A-shares have a high investment cost - performance ratio in the medium - to - long term. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and technology innovation policies and may bring higher returns due to their high growth. SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment. Entering July, overseas uncertainties increase, and tariff negotiations may become a short - term focus in the capital market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - For IF contracts, the previous two - day closing prices for IF current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter were 3997.20, 3979.20, 3972.00, and 3941.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4014.60, 4000.00, 3993.40, and 3965.60 respectively, with increases of 7.80, 10.20, 11.60, and 17.20. The trading volumes were 53455.00, 8979.00, 84781.00, and 16296.00 respectively, and the open interests were 62423.00, 13332.00, 158393.00, and 48480.00 respectively, with changes of 2133.00, 4184.00, 14069.00, and 4222.00 [1] - Similar data are provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts. For example, for IC contracts, the previous two - day closing prices for current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter were 5958.80, 5904.40, 5854.20, and 5731.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 6023.00, 5973.40, 5920.40, and 5794.00 respectively, with increases of 55.00, 62.20, 60.60, and 57.80 [1] - The spread between IF next month and IF current month was - 14.60 (previous value - 18.00), and similar spread data are provided for IH, IC, and IM [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - For the CSI 300 index, the previous value of the index points was 4014.81, the trading volume was 262.05 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 4437.81 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.12. Similar data are provided for SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [1] - Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different growth rates. For example, the energy industry had a growth rate of - 1.32%, and the raw materials industry had a growth rate of 0.87% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis between IF current month and CSI 300 was - 0.21 (previous two - day value - 12.82), and similar basis data are provided for other contracts and corresponding spot indices [1] 4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - For domestic main indexes, the Shanghai Composite Index had a previous value of 3510.18, with a growth rate of 0.01%. The Shenzhen Component Index had a previous value of 10696.10, with a growth rate of 0.61% [1] - For overseas indexes, the Hang Seng Index had a previous value of 24139.57, with a growth rate of 0.46%. The Nikkei 225 had a previous value of 39569.68, with a growth rate of - 0.19% [1] 5. Macro Information - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Self - Regulatory Guidelines for Science and Technology Innovation Board Listed Companies No. 5 - Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer", with no additional listing thresholds for unprofitable enterprises and no new investment thresholds for individual investors [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Guidelines for the Application of Issuance and Listing Review Rules No. 7 - Pre - review", allowing eligible enterprises to apply for pre - review of their application documents before formally applying for IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board [2] 6. Industry Information - The rent of Beijing's representative financial street in the office market fell below 400 yuan/square meter/month in the second quarter, and new industries are expected to boost demand [2] - The price of polysilicon rose by more than 16% last week, and the market expects accelerated supply - side reform in resource industries [2] - Multiple regions issued risk warnings against stable - coin concepts [2]