铜观点 委内瑞拉事件爆发后，市场对金属等矿产资源供应稳定性担忧加剧，昨日有色 金属板块共振，铜价再创新高，触及105000元/吨。我们认为铜的中长期基本面 仍然良好. 供应端的资本开支约束支撑底部重心逐步上抬。但短期来看. 前期 价格大幅冲高后. 已对终端真实需求形成显著抑制. 下游开工率、订单疲软. 现货贴水达年内新低水平。从我们构建的库销比及铜价模型来看,当前铜价对 远期利多计价已较为充分,短期的价格存在一定非理性高估,但在市场投机情 绪高涨、风险偏好较高的宏观环境下、短期价格仍有理由维持偏强走势。沪铜 期权波动率维持高位,短期价格波动或加剧,主力关注99000-100000支撑。 哪里 我 2026年1月7日 | ST FUTURES | | | --- | --- | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 103665 | 100575 | +3090.00 | 3.07% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - A-shares have a high investment cost - performance ratio in the medium - to - long term. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and technology innovation policies and may bring higher returns due to their high growth. SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment. Entering July, overseas uncertainties increase, and tariff negotiations may become a short - term focus in the capital market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - For IF contracts, the previous two - day closing prices for IF current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter were 3997.20, 3979.20, 3972.00, and 3941.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4014.60, 4000.00, 3993.40, and 3965.60 respectively, with increases of 7.80, 10.20, 11.60, and 17.20. The trading volumes were 53455.00, 8979.00, 84781.00, and 16296.00 respectively, and the open interests were 62423.00, 13332.00, 158393.00, and 48480.00 respectively, with changes of 2133.00, 4184.00, 14069.00, and 4222.00 [1] - Similar data are provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts. For example, for IC contracts, the previous two - day closing prices for current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter were 5958.80, 5904.40, 5854.20, and 5731.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 6023.00, 5973.40, 5920.40, and 5794.00 respectively, with increases of 55.00, 62.20, 60.60, and 57.80 [1] - The spread between IF next month and IF current month was - 14.60 (previous value - 18.00), and similar spread data are provided for IH, IC, and IM [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - For the CSI 300 index, the previous value of the index points was 4014.81, the trading volume was 262.05 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 4437.81 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.12. Similar data are provided for SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [1] - Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different growth rates. For example, the energy industry had a growth rate of - 1.32%, and the raw materials industry had a growth rate of 0.87% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis between IF current month and CSI 300 was - 0.21 (previous two - day value - 12.82), and similar basis data are provided for other contracts and corresponding spot indices [1] 4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - For domestic main indexes, the Shanghai Composite Index had a previous value of 3510.18, with a growth rate of 0.01%. The Shenzhen Component Index had a previous value of 10696.10, with a growth rate of 0.61% [1] - For overseas indexes, the Hang Seng Index had a previous value of 24139.57, with a growth rate of 0.46%. The Nikkei 225 had a previous value of 39569.68, with a growth rate of - 0.19% [1] 5. Macro Information - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Self - Regulatory Guidelines for Science and Technology Innovation Board Listed Companies No. 5 - Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer", with no additional listing thresholds for unprofitable enterprises and no new investment thresholds for individual investors [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Guidelines for the Application of Issuance and Listing Review Rules No. 7 - Pre - review", allowing eligible enterprises to apply for pre - review of their application documents before formally applying for IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board [2] 6. Industry Information - The rent of Beijing's representative financial street in the office market fell below 400 yuan/square meter/month in the second quarter, and new industries are expected to boost demand [2] - The price of polysilicon rose by more than 16% last week, and the market expects accelerated supply - side reform in resource industries [2] - Multiple regions issued risk warnings against stable - coin concepts [2]