热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周三，国内能化板块集体走强，沥青涨幅居前，日内最大涨幅超4%。美国严寒天气扰乱了墨西哥湾沿 岸多家炼油厂以及少量国内产出，此前一场冬季风暴重创美国产油区，导致上周末美国墨西哥湾沿岸原 油出口一度降至零，令生产商措手不及。消息称，由雪佛龙公司主导的哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田预计到2 月7日产量只能恢复到不到一半，产量进一步恢复仍存在不确定性。此外，OPEC+计划在本周末开会， 评估对下个月产量政策的决定，预计将维持产量不变的计划。在供应端收缩预期的背景下，油价表现为 震荡偏强。短期需持续关注美国寒潮对供应端形成的冲击，若油价继续反弹，沥青成本端提振或延续。 基本面来看， 2月炼厂排产小幅下降，短期部分地炼停产收紧供应；需求端，淡季叠加大范围寒潮雨雪 天气阻碍终端需求，下游仍以入库需求为主，实际成交偏弱。当前市场对于远月地炼原料供应可能短缺 的预期仍然存在，但是对近期盘面的影响已经有所减弱。短期在弱需求现实之下，关注社库累库的速 度。 资料来源：Wind、光大期货研究所 撰稿：史玥明 从业资格：F03097365 交易咨询资格：Z0017563 免 ...

ICC锂电结算指导价： | 品名 | 1月20日 | 1月21日 | 环比上涨 上月均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 锂精矿 | 2030 | 2100 | 70 | 1249 | | (6.0%) | | | | | | 电池级碳酸锂 (99.5%/旌石) | 15. 35 | 15. 95 | 0. 6 | 10. 2 | | 氢氧化锂 (56.5%相颗粒) | 14. 2 | 15 | 0.8 | 8.58 | | 磷酸铁锂 (动力型) | 5.28 | 5.38 | 0.1 | 4. 05 | | 三元材料 | 19. 7 | 19.7 | - | 16. 76 | | (811) | | | | | | 方形动力电芯 | 0. 335 | 0. 335 | | 0. 307 | | (磷酸铁锂) | | | | | 0 1 0 2 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电、封面：图虫创意 行情变化： 1月2 1 日， ICC电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）现货结算指导价格为 15 9 50 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views Copper - The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom center. However, in the short term, the sharp rise in prices has significantly suppressed real terminal demand, and the current copper price is overvalued to some extent. But in a macro - environment with high speculative sentiment and risk appetite, the short - term price may remain strong. The volatility of Shanghai copper options remains high, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify, with the main focus on the 99,000 - 100,000 support level [2]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, the zinc price continued to be strong. Domestic zinc concentrate production is in a reduction season, and the supply of domestic zinc ore is tight. The import window for zinc ore has opened, which may relieve the short - term supply pressure. The supply pressure of refined zinc has eased, and downstream demand has shown good performance. In the future, the price will be supported by tight domestic zinc ore and low zinc ingot inventory, and pressured by the expected supply of imported ore. The short - term price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - atmosphere, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [6]. Nickel - Due to the resonance of supply - side contraction expectations and geopolitical risks, the nickel price rose sharply. The spot of Jinchuan nickel resources is still tight, and the spot premium remains high. The price of nickel iron has a stronger bottom support, but the terminal demand is weak. Overall, the short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 142,000 - 152,000 range [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel disk was affected by raw - material disturbances and rose. The spot resources are generally tight, and the market sentiment is boosted by the expected tightening of the nickel ore market. The supply - side pressure has eased slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 13,500 - 14,200 range [9]. Tin - The tin price rose strongly. On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the export of tin ingots from Indonesia has basically completed the annual target. The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) may affect tin production. On the demand side, the tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. The short - term price is mainly affected by macro factors [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate disk continued to rise rapidly. The market's expectation of supply disturbances has been strengthened, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream demand maintains a certain resilience, but the orders in the power market have declined. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to liquidity risks and regulatory possibilities [16]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price followed the aluminum price and continued to reach new highs, but the spot - market trading was light. The cost is the main driving factor, and the market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand weak. The ADC12 price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,600 - 23,600 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide disk fluctuated widely, and the spot trading was light at the end of the year. The policy has stimulated the supply - side contraction expectation, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed. The aluminum oxide price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line and may follow the aluminum price to rise emotionally in the future. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum expected to run in the 23,800 - 24,800 yuan/ton range [21]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price was affected by the news of the organic - silicon monomer factory meeting. The 1 - month industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. The demand may decline, and the export may increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [22]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is firm, and the futures price rose and then fell. The upstream hopes to drive the price increase of the entire industry chain by holding up the price, but the downstream demand is weak. In January, the demand has no bright spots, and the price may rise while the volume falls. The polysilicon price will remain in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction efforts or price - decline pressure [24]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.07% to 103,665 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.58% to 103,815 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of various copper types and related indicators such as refined - scrap spread, LME 0 - 3, and import profit and loss have changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. In November, the electrolytic copper import volume was 27.11 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.90%. The inventory of various types has also changed [2]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 1.54% to 23,970 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount and other indicators have changed [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.24%. In November, the refined zinc import volume was 1.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%, and the export volume increased significantly. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 3.84% to 143,450 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of various nickel products and other indicators have changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, China's refined nickel production was 33,342 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38%. In November, the refined nickel import volume was 12,671 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.08%. The inventory of various types has also changed [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) increased by 0.76% to 13,300 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw materials and month - to - month spreads have changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 178.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%. The import and export volumes of stainless steel have also changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel has decreased slightly [9]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 2.85% to 341,050 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount, import profit and loss, and month - to - month spreads have changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the tin ore import volume was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81%. In December, the SMM refined tin production was 15,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. The inventory of various types has decreased to varying degrees [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6.69% to 127,500 yuan/ton, and the prices of related lithium products and spreads have changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the lithium carbonate production was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. The demand decreased by 2.50%, and the inventory of various types has decreased [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 1.73% to 23,500 yuan/ton, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum and month - to - month spreads have changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.74%. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [18]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 2.57% to 23,910 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related indicators such as import profit and loss and month - to - month spreads have changed [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The production of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory of various types has changed [21]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spreads have changed significantly [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production was 39.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. The production and operating rates in different regions and the production of related downstream products have changed, and the inventory has increased slightly [22]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 0.47% to 53,500 yuan/kg, and the futures price and month - to - month spreads have changed [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, import and export volumes, and inventory levels have all changed [24].