Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in polyolefins is driven by both supply contraction expectations and a significant increase in cost. The ongoing US-Iran conflict has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the supply of raw materials such as crude oil, methanol, and propane. This has led to potential defensive production cuts by domestic olefin enterprises, with some already reducing production. Geopolitical conflicts have also pushed up international oil prices and propane prices, strengthening cost support and boosting polyolefin prices [3]. - For PE, there are few planned maintenance activities in March and April. Although the actual production cuts of other enterprises are yet to be realized, the demand side is gradually recovering after the holiday, with downstream restocking and rising spot prices. The short - term geopolitical disturbances may continue to drive up plastic prices [3]. - For PP, the impact of the Iran situation on overseas PP supply is relatively small. It is mainly driven by cost increases and supply contractions. The deepening loss of PDH production profit may lead to an extended peak of PDH maintenance. The demand side is also improving, and short - term cost increases and supply contraction expectations will continue to boost prices [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - The L main contract closed at 7355 yuan/ton (+155), and the PP main contract closed at 7506 yuan/ton (+283). The LL North China spot price was 7150 yuan/ton (+150), the LL East China spot price was 7200 yuan/ton (+100), and the PP East China spot price was 7300 yuan/ton (+270). The LL North China basis was - 205 yuan/ton (-5), the LL East China basis was - 155 yuan/ton (-55), and the PP East China basis was - 206 yuan/ton (-13) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 88.0% (-0.5%), and the PP operating rate was 75.5% (-0.4%). The PE oil - based production profit was - 673.0 yuan/ton (+8.6), the PP oil - based production profit was - 983.0 yuan/ton (+8.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 1853.0 yuan/ton (+303.9) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was 279.6 yuan/ton (+276.2), the PP import profit was - 370.2 yuan/ton (+15.2), and the PP export profit was - 107.7 US dollars/ton (-39.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 10.1% (-14.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 24.7% (+4.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 29.3% (+5.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 47.7% (+4.9%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic energy and chemical sector showed strong performance, with asphalt prices rising over 4% due to disruptions caused by severe winter weather in the U.S. affecting Gulf Coast refineries and domestic production [3][7]. Supply Side - Severe winter storms have led to a significant reduction in U.S. oil production, with Gulf Coast crude oil exports dropping to zero last weekend [3][7]. - Chevron's Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is expected to recover to less than half of its production capacity by February 7, with further recovery remaining uncertain [3][7]. - OPEC+ is scheduled to meet this weekend to assess production policies for the upcoming month, with expectations to maintain current production levels [3][7]. Demand Side - February refinery output is expected to see a slight decrease, with some local refineries temporarily halting production, tightening supply [3][7]. - The demand side is facing challenges due to the off-season and widespread cold weather, which is hindering end-user demand, leading to weak actual transactions focused primarily on inventory needs [3][7]. - There are ongoing market expectations regarding potential shortages of raw materials for local refineries in the coming months, although the impact on recent market performance has diminished [3][7]. Market Outlook - In the context of supply contraction expectations, oil prices are showing a tendency to fluctuate positively [3][7]. - Short-term attention should be given to the impact of the U.S. cold wave on supply, as continued price rebounds could sustain upward pressure on asphalt costs [3][7]. - In light of weak demand realities, monitoring the speed of inventory accumulation is crucial [3][7].

Market Overview - On January 21, the spot settlement price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 159,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 6,000 CNY from the previous working day. The price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) was 150,000 CNY/ton, up by 8,000 CNY [1][2] - In the futures market, driven by rumors of maintenance plans from several lithium salt manufacturers, the price of lithium carbonate futures closed at 166,740 CNY/ton, an increase of 6,240 CNY from the previous working day, with an increase in open interest [1] Price Trends - The average price levels for various lithium products as of January 21 are as follows: - Lithium concentrate: 2,100 CNY/ton, up by 70 CNY - Battery-grade lithium carbonate: 159,500 CNY/ton, up by 600 CNY - Lithium hydroxide: 150,000 CNY/ton, up by 800 CNY - Lithium iron phosphate: 5,380 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY - Ternary materials: 19,700 CNY/ton, unchanged [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing strong upward pressure on lithium carbonate prices, primarily driven by expectations of supply contraction due to maintenance plans from multiple lithium salt manufacturers scheduled for late January to February. This has led to a significant increase in transaction volumes as downstream companies replenish their inventories after a price correction [7] - The average price tolerance for battery-grade lithium carbonate among tier-two enterprises is estimated to be around 156,000 CNY [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views Copper - The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom center. However, in the short term, the sharp rise in prices has significantly suppressed real terminal demand, and the current copper price is overvalued to some extent. But in a macro - environment with high speculative sentiment and risk appetite, the short - term price may remain strong. The volatility of Shanghai copper options remains high, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify, with the main focus on the 99,000 - 100,000 support level [2]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, the zinc price continued to be strong. Domestic zinc concentrate production is in a reduction season, and the supply of domestic zinc ore is tight. The import window for zinc ore has opened, which may relieve the short - term supply pressure. The supply pressure of refined zinc has eased, and downstream demand has shown good performance. In the future, the price will be supported by tight domestic zinc ore and low zinc ingot inventory, and pressured by the expected supply of imported ore. The short - term price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - atmosphere, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [6]. Nickel - Due to the resonance of supply - side contraction expectations and geopolitical risks, the nickel price rose sharply. The spot of Jinchuan nickel resources is still tight, and the spot premium remains high. The price of nickel iron has a stronger bottom support, but the terminal demand is weak. Overall, the short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 142,000 - 152,000 range [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel disk was affected by raw - material disturbances and rose. The spot resources are generally tight, and the market sentiment is boosted by the expected tightening of the nickel ore market. The supply - side pressure has eased slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 13,500 - 14,200 range [9]. Tin - The tin price rose strongly. On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the export of tin ingots from Indonesia has basically completed the annual target. The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) may affect tin production. On the demand side, the tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. The short - term price is mainly affected by macro factors [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate disk continued to rise rapidly. The market's expectation of supply disturbances has been strengthened, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream demand maintains a certain resilience, but the orders in the power market have declined. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to liquidity risks and regulatory possibilities [16]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price followed the aluminum price and continued to reach new highs, but the spot - market trading was light. The cost is the main driving factor, and the market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand weak. The ADC12 price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,600 - 23,600 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide disk fluctuated widely, and the spot trading was light at the end of the year. The policy has stimulated the supply - side contraction expectation, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed. The aluminum oxide price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line and may follow the aluminum price to rise emotionally in the future. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum expected to run in the 23,800 - 24,800 yuan/ton range [21]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price was affected by the news of the organic - silicon monomer factory meeting. The 1 - month industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. The demand may decline, and the export may increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [22]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is firm, and the futures price rose and then fell. The upstream hopes to drive the price increase of the entire industry chain by holding up the price, but the downstream demand is weak. In January, the demand has no bright spots, and the price may rise while the volume falls. The polysilicon price will remain in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction efforts or price - decline pressure [24]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.07% to 103,665 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.58% to 103,815 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of various copper types and related indicators such as refined - scrap spread, LME 0 - 3, and import profit and loss have changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. In November, the electrolytic copper import volume was 27.11 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.90%. The inventory of various types has also changed [2]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 1.54% to 23,970 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount and other indicators have changed [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.24%. In November, the refined zinc import volume was 1.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%, and the export volume increased significantly. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 3.84% to 143,450 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of various nickel products and other indicators have changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, China's refined nickel production was 33,342 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38%. In November, the refined nickel import volume was 12,671 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.08%. The inventory of various types has also changed [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) increased by 0.76% to 13,300 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw materials and month - to - month spreads have changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 178.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%. The import and export volumes of stainless steel have also changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel has decreased slightly [9]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 2.85% to 341,050 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount, import profit and loss, and month - to - month spreads have changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the tin ore import volume was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81%. In December, the SMM refined tin production was 15,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. The inventory of various types has decreased to varying degrees [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6.69% to 127,500 yuan/ton, and the prices of related lithium products and spreads have changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the lithium carbonate production was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. The demand decreased by 2.50%, and the inventory of various types has decreased [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 1.73% to 23,500 yuan/ton, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum and month - to - month spreads have changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.74%. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [18]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 2.57% to 23,910 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related indicators such as import profit and loss and month - to - month spreads have changed [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The production of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory of various types has changed [21]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spreads have changed significantly [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production was 39.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. The production and operating rates in different regions and the production of related downstream products have changed, and the inventory has increased slightly [22]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 0.47% to 53,500 yuan/kg, and the futures price and month - to - month spreads have changed [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, import and export volumes, and inventory levels have all changed [24].