去年，我又有两位同行离职去卖了保险。曾经他们是我的潜在客户，现在则"攻守之势异也"。 离开的人多了，留下的人反而更焦虑。 于是年终聚会的时候，对新年的预测就变成了最热门的话题。 一些投消费REITs的机构问得更直接：2026年的消费，会不会突然崩塌？就像2023年产业园的那一波剧烈震荡。 而每当聊起这个话题，我都能感觉到两层焦虑：一层是对宏观环境的不确定；另一层，是对自己所处位置的无力感。 于是我试着把情绪放在一边，用一篇文章，拆一拆这道现实题。结论先给出来：2026年的实体商业，大概率不会"崩塌"，但对大多数人来说，确实会更 难。 第二，乡村增速高于城镇；小城增速高于大城。 单独把城镇社零的增长率数据拿点出来看，你会发现它从2025年的7月份起，就没有再跑赢过全国平均水平。换句话来说，下半年的增速下滑，主要是城 镇消费不及预期。 在披露了社零数据的省份里，增速靠前的是海南、河南等非传统消费增长大省，而广东、江苏这样被认为"更有钱"的省份，反而跑输了平均水准。 难的原因，并不复杂。 一道并不友好的数学题：钱，正在流向哪里？ 先看一组大家都已经很熟的数字——2025年1-11月，全国社会消费品零售总额同比增长4 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the tension between traditional shopping experiences and the rise of digital commerce, emphasizing the need for balance between convenience and community interaction [1][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of Q2 2025, China's online retail market is projected to exceed 14.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [3]. - Active users on food delivery platforms have reached 850 million, with daily orders surpassing 100 million [3]. Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - There are three main groups expressing concerns about the dominance of digital commerce: older generations accustomed to traditional shopping, idealists longing for personal interactions, and brick-and-mortar businesses facing competition [5][6]. - The nostalgia for traditional markets and social interactions highlights the emotional connection people have with physical shopping experiences [5][7]. Group 3: Adaptation and Innovation - The emergence of "community markets" in 2025 allows consumers to order via apps and pick up items locally, fostering social interactions [7]. - Traditional markets are undergoing digital upgrades, enabling them to accept both online and offline orders, thus enhancing operational efficiency while maintaining a vibrant atmosphere [7][8]. Group 4: Business Strategies - Restaurants are increasingly adopting a hybrid model that combines online and offline sales, leading to a 35% increase in quarterly revenue compared to those using a single channel [8]. - Businesses are encouraged to integrate the strengths of both traditional and digital approaches to enhance consumer experiences [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of commerce is expected to be more inclusive and diverse, catering to varying consumer needs without reverting to outdated practices [9][11]. - The concept of "human warmth" in shopping is not limited to a specific method but is a shared pursuit of a better life, whether through physical markets or online platforms [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The government is focusing on optimizing existing commercial real estate to support the development of the实体商业 sector through detailed surveys and data collection [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to refine surveys to understand the existing commercial real estate inventory and support the revitalization of these spaces [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has initiated urban land monitoring in 297 cities, collecting data on retail commercial locations and land use to aid in planning and regulation [1] Group 2: Urban Planning and Development - The government encourages a mix of commercial functions such as retail, dining, and leisure with residential areas to create 15-minute community living circles, optimizing the scale, structure, and layout of commercial land [1] - Supportive policies will be available for utilizing existing commercial properties for new business models, online-offline integration, and logistics projects, allowing for a five-year transitional period for land use [1]

Core Insights - The retail sector is facing unprecedented challenges in 2025, including reduced foot traffic, increased customer acquisition costs, and intense price competition, leading to a situation where businesses struggle to attract customers and maintain profitability [1] - The "Store Model" 3.0 has emerged as a transformative solution, integrating social purchasing and precise customer retention strategies, resulting in significant sales increases for over 200 stores [1][2] - The success of the 3.0 version lies in its innovative approach, which optimizes algorithms, upgrades incentive systems, and fosters deep collaboration among merchants, addressing the sustainability issues of previous models [1][2] Group 1: "Store Model" 3.0 Innovations - The "全民拼购" (Universal Group Buying) mechanism transforms users from consumers to promoters, creating a viral marketing effect that significantly reduces customer acquisition costs [2][4] - The "排队免单" (Queue for Free) mechanism encourages repeat purchases by allowing customers to enter a queue for potential refunds after each purchase, enhancing customer retention and creating a buzz around the store [4][5] - The model promotes a win-win situation for all parties involved: merchants reduce acquisition costs and increase repeat purchases, customers enjoy better deals and experiences, and platforms gain stable revenue through transaction sharing [5][6] Group 2: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The combination of social sharing and precise customer retention is reshaping the competitive landscape of the retail industry, moving away from short-term price wars to a focus on sustainable profit generation [6] - The innovative retail ecosystem is rapidly forming, favoring those who embrace change and innovation, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior and business strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - Digital empowerment has become the core driving force for the high-quality development of physical commerce, reshaping growth models in the data-driven era [1][2][3] Group 1: Research Significance - The study focuses on the practice of digital empowerment in physical commerce and the key role of the Wanda Smart Business Platform in industry transformation [1] - It aims to provide strong support for brand merchants to optimize operational models and enhance market competitiveness, while offering forward-looking insights for industry decision-makers and investors [1] Group 2: Current Status and Challenges - The report analyzes the current status, challenges, and development paths of digital empowerment in physical commerce, showcasing how digital technology aids in transformation and upgrade [2] - The digital transformation of physical commerce is a systematic project that covers the entire process from brand location selection to operational expansion [7] Group 3: Industry Trends - The digital upgrade is an inevitable choice for the transformation of physical commerce, with full-link intelligent transformation reconstructing the growth paradigm of the industry [3][69] - The future will see physical commerce moving towards deep integration of digital and physical, leading a new wave of industry digital transformation through technological collaboration and ecological reconstruction [3][72] Group 4: Development History - The rise of e-commerce in the early 21st century posed unprecedented challenges to physical commerce, prompting exploration of online-offline integration [4] - Commercial complexes have become key drivers for revitalizing the physical economy, enhancing competitiveness through digital transformation and service quality improvement [4][6] Group 5: Macroeconomic Background - From 2017 to 2024, China's per capita disposable income is projected to grow from 26,000 to 41,000 yuan, while per capita consumption expenditure is expected to rise from 18,000 to 28,000 yuan, providing a solid economic foundation for the development of physical commerce [7][8] - The rental market for commercial streets and shopping centers is experiencing slight increases, with demand for shop leasing expected to continue to release [11] Group 6: Brand Development - The restaurant sector is focusing on diversification and experiential consumption, with significant potential in lower-tier cities [18] - The retail sector emphasizes precise matching of "people-goods-scene" to penetrate the market, targeting lower-tier markets as potential growth areas [22] Group 7: Digital Transformation Needs - Digital transformation addresses four major challenges: location selection, marketing, operations, and expansion, reconstructing the growth methodology of physical commerce [31] - The core paths for digital transformation include data assetization, operational digitization, and service ecosystem development, enhancing brand competitiveness [35] Group 8: Wanda Smart Business Platform - Wanda Smart Business leverages over 20 years of commercial management experience to create a self-sustaining cycle of "precise leasing - merchant growth - data feedback," maximizing commercial value [54] - The platform has successfully supported various brands, such as Tea Baidao and Hu Shang Ayi, in their digital transformation and expansion efforts [57][60]