热点报告——外汇期货 美国 11 月非农喜忧参半， 失业率持续抬升 走势评级： 美元：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 17 日 ★ 美国 11 月非农喜忧参半，失业率持续抬升： 美国 11 月非农新增就业 6.4 万人，超出市场预期的 5 万人，10 月 减少 10.5 万人，主要受政府裁员影响。过去 12 个月平均每月新增 7.8 万人，劳动力市场维持韧性。8 月新增就业人数由减少 4000 人 下修至减少 2.6 万，9 月由新增 11.9 万人下修至 10.8 人，合计下修 3.3 万人。失业率回升至 4.6%，高于市场预期和前值，劳动参与率 小幅回升至 62.5%；时薪环比增速 0.1%，较前值回落，低于预期的 0.3%，同比增速 3.5%，低于预期和前值。数据公布后，美元指数 和十年期美债收益率震荡下行，黄金高位震荡，美股冲高回落。 分行业而言，新增就业主要来自于：教育和医疗保健(6.5 万人）， 建筑业(2.8 万人)，专业和商业服务（1.2 万人），零售业（6200 人）。运输和仓储行业、制造业和联邦政府延续裁员态势，此前作 为主要新增就业来源的休闲和酒店业也大幅裁员。 总体而言，9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - **Employment Data**: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - **Industry Breakdown**: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - **Interest Rate Meeting Outlook**: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]

Employment Data - In February, the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs, aligning closely with expectations of 160,000[12] - The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.1%, while the broader U6 unemployment rate rose to 8%, the highest since October 2021[12][14] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 4% year-over-year, below the expected 4.1%, and rose by 0.3% month-over-month[17] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2% to 62.4%, primarily due to a drop in participation among the 20-24 age group[23] - Employment growth was mainly driven by sectors such as education, healthcare, finance, and transportation, while government employment saw a slowdown with only 11,000 new jobs added[21] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times in 2025, specifically in June, September, and October[25] - Fed Chair Powell expressed optimism about the economy, indicating no immediate need for rate adjustments despite uncertainties[25] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected weakening of the U.S. economy, uncertainties in new government policies, and financial risk events[26]