Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality economic development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need for significant improvements in technological self-reliance and national security [2][6] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests favorable conditions for various themes and industries, including the construction of a modern industrial system, development of new quality productivity, and expansion of domestic demand [2][7] Summary by Sections 1. Main Content of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session - The session reviewed and approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" [4] 2. Deep Impact on the A-Share Market - Short-term, the session provides new policy expectations and investment clues for the A-share market, potentially boosting market confidence and attracting incremental capital [10] - Long-term, the strategic direction outlined in the session reinforces confidence in the long-term resilience of the Chinese economy, particularly in key areas like modern industrial system construction [10] 3. Theme Investment Opportunities - New Quality Productivity: The focus on enhancing technological self-reliance is a key investment theme, with technology companies that align with national strategies expected to be significant investment targets [11] - Consumption Sector: The emphasis on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption indicates that consumer sectors, especially new consumption trends, will be critical areas for investment [12][13] - "Two Heavy" Projects: The report highlights the importance of major strategic projects and infrastructure development, which will benefit related sectors such as construction and machinery [13][14] - Anti-Overcompetition: The report discusses the need to address disordered competition, which will enhance the long-term investment value of related sectors [14] - Real Estate Chain: The focus on promoting high-quality development in real estate suggests potential trading opportunities within the real estate sector [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the A-share market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase until Q2-Q3 of 2025, with a need to wait for favorable conditions to initiate a larger market rally [1][2]. Market Review and Conditions for Breakthrough - Historically, after a bear market ends, the market often enters a consolidation phase before confirming a bull market. Significant upward breakthroughs from this phase typically signal the start of a major bull market [2]. - The article outlines previous consolidation periods in the A-share market, noting that the end of bear markets in 2005 and 2009 led directly to bull markets, while subsequent bear market endings resulted in prolonged consolidation phases [2]. - The conditions for a breakthrough include sustained inflow of incremental capital into A-shares, cyclical and structural improvements in the fundamentals, and optimistic expectations for a bull market [2]. Current Market Dynamics - The current environment shows that the asset management industry is returning to incremental competition, but further accumulation of profit effects is needed [2]. - The cyclical improvement in fundamentals is expected to be confirmed by 2026, while the structural bull market in technology requires breakthroughs at the foundational level to drive application layers [2]. - The optimistic expectations for China's strategic opportunity period are developing but need to resonate with other factors to reflect in asset prices [2]. Short-term Market Trends - The short-term rebound in the A-share market is supported by a "隔离墙" (isolation wall) against macroeconomic disturbances, which reduces major downside risks [5][6]. - The market is currently experiencing a positive attempt at structural breakthroughs, driven by the expansion of profit effects in new consumption and a rebound in technology growth [5][6]. - However, the overall profit effect is nearing a high point, suggesting potential for increased volatility in the short term [5][6]. New Consumption Trends - Core targets within new consumption sectors (such as jewelry, trendy toys, new snacks, and beauty products) are maintaining their respective growth trends, with high valuation frameworks still sustainable [7]. - The article expresses caution regarding the expansion of profit effects in new consumption, indicating that significant profit effect expansions often signal short-term adjustments [7]. - The A-share market's mid-term return to a structural bull market relies on breakthroughs in technology industry trends, with short-term rebounds in technology not yet escaping adjustment phases [8]. Quantitative Indicators - The article includes various quantitative indicators tracking market sentiment and profit effect diffusion across sectors, indicating ongoing expansions in several industries, including healthcare, environmental protection, and transportation [10].