Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a slight upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.67% to close at 26,033.26 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.82% to 5,644.76 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Alibaba up 2.24%, Tencent up 1.31%, and JD Group up 0.52%. However, Xiaomi fell by 1.76% and Meituan dropped by 2.88% [1] - The metals sector saw significant gains, with China Nonferrous Mining rising over 13% [1] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks generally declined, with New Fire Technology Holdings down over 9% [1] Company News - Meituan reported Q3 revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but its core local business operating profit turned negative, resulting in a loss of 14.1 billion yuan [2] - China Gas reported revenue of 34.481 billion HKD and a profit of 1.334 billion HKD for the six months ending September 30, 2025 [3] - Yingtong Holdings reported a revenue of 1.028 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.42%, but net profit increased by 15.4% to 133 million RMB [3] - Jihai Resources reported a revenue of 450 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.41%, with a net profit of 88.127 million RMB, up 2.98% [3] - Yuhua Education reported annual revenue of 2.497 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit of 930 million RMB, up 133.2% [3] - Huitai Textile reported mid-term revenue of 2.524 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 6.72%, and a net profit of 79.322 million HKD, down 25.77% [3] - Huaxin Handbag International reported revenue of 432 million HKD, a year-on-year increase of 22.55%, and a profit of 48.262 million HKD, up 78.88% [4] Institutional Insights - GF Securities noted that the foundation for a bull market in Hong Kong stocks remains intact, but the evolution may present a "volatile upward, gradually rising" characteristic rather than a rapid increase [12] - Dongwu Securities indicated that short-term risk factors in Hong Kong stocks are decreasing, but a catalyst is needed for confirmation of a rebound [12] - Everbright Securities suggested that compared to previous bull markets, there is still significant room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase [12] - CICC highlighted that dividends have become a preferred choice in the current market environment, with the banking sector rebounding nearly 10% since the end of September [13]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality economic development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need for significant improvements in technological self-reliance and national security [2][6] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests favorable conditions for various themes and industries, including the construction of a modern industrial system, development of new quality productivity, and expansion of domestic demand [2][7] Summary by Sections 1. Main Content of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session - The session reviewed and approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" [4] 2. Deep Impact on the A-Share Market - Short-term, the session provides new policy expectations and investment clues for the A-share market, potentially boosting market confidence and attracting incremental capital [10] - Long-term, the strategic direction outlined in the session reinforces confidence in the long-term resilience of the Chinese economy, particularly in key areas like modern industrial system construction [10] 3. Theme Investment Opportunities - New Quality Productivity: The focus on enhancing technological self-reliance is a key investment theme, with technology companies that align with national strategies expected to be significant investment targets [11] - Consumption Sector: The emphasis on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption indicates that consumer sectors, especially new consumption trends, will be critical areas for investment [12][13] - "Two Heavy" Projects: The report highlights the importance of major strategic projects and infrastructure development, which will benefit related sectors such as construction and machinery [13][14] - Anti-Overcompetition: The report discusses the need to address disordered competition, which will enhance the long-term investment value of related sectors [14] - Real Estate Chain: The focus on promoting high-quality development in real estate suggests potential trading opportunities within the real estate sector [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the A-share market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase until Q2-Q3 of 2025, with a need to wait for favorable conditions to initiate a larger market rally [1][2]. Market Review and Conditions for Breakthrough - Historically, after a bear market ends, the market often enters a consolidation phase before confirming a bull market. Significant upward breakthroughs from this phase typically signal the start of a major bull market [2]. - The article outlines previous consolidation periods in the A-share market, noting that the end of bear markets in 2005 and 2009 led directly to bull markets, while subsequent bear market endings resulted in prolonged consolidation phases [2]. - The conditions for a breakthrough include sustained inflow of incremental capital into A-shares, cyclical and structural improvements in the fundamentals, and optimistic expectations for a bull market [2]. Current Market Dynamics - The current environment shows that the asset management industry is returning to incremental competition, but further accumulation of profit effects is needed [2]. - The cyclical improvement in fundamentals is expected to be confirmed by 2026, while the structural bull market in technology requires breakthroughs at the foundational level to drive application layers [2]. - The optimistic expectations for China's strategic opportunity period are developing but need to resonate with other factors to reflect in asset prices [2]. Short-term Market Trends - The short-term rebound in the A-share market is supported by a "隔离墙" (isolation wall) against macroeconomic disturbances, which reduces major downside risks [5][6]. - The market is currently experiencing a positive attempt at structural breakthroughs, driven by the expansion of profit effects in new consumption and a rebound in technology growth [5][6]. - However, the overall profit effect is nearing a high point, suggesting potential for increased volatility in the short term [5][6]. New Consumption Trends - Core targets within new consumption sectors (such as jewelry, trendy toys, new snacks, and beauty products) are maintaining their respective growth trends, with high valuation frameworks still sustainable [7]. - The article expresses caution regarding the expansion of profit effects in new consumption, indicating that significant profit effect expansions often signal short-term adjustments [7]. - The A-share market's mid-term return to a structural bull market relies on breakthroughs in technology industry trends, with short-term rebounds in technology not yet escaping adjustment phases [8]. Quantitative Indicators - The article includes various quantitative indicators tracking market sentiment and profit effect diffusion across sectors, indicating ongoing expansions in several industries, including healthcare, environmental protection, and transportation [10].