机构：西部证券 研究员：于佳琦/吴岑 随着与永辉合作的供应链协同效应逐步释放，公司运营效率有望进一步提升。基于公司在渠道升级、IP 战略与全球化运营方面的成功执行，其增长质量与盈利能见度持续提升。我们预计公司2025~2027 年 EPS 为1.93/2.58/3.26 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧；品牌及IP 孵化不及预期；门店扩张经营风险。 国内业务企稳回升。公司25H1 中国内地收入同比增长11.4%，其中第二季度同店销售额实现四个季度 以来首次正增长，显示运营优化与客流改善初见成效。公司战略重心已从数量扩张转向质量提升，通过 关闭低效小店、优化网络结构，截至25H1，门店总数达4,305 家，净增190 家。以MINISO LAND和旗 舰店为代表的大店业态，凭借沉浸式IP 场景与丰富SKU，显著提升客单价与坪效，成为增长与品牌升 级的核心动力。未来，国内市场将聚焦同店增长与大店拓展，计划净增100-150 家门店。 IP 战略已从引流工具升级为核心竞争壁垒。IP 产品通过情感价值有效提升品牌溢价与用户粘性，对公 司收入形成有力支撑。公司正从"IP 联名"向"自有IP 孵化"深化，首 ...

Core Insights - The summer consumption boom is driving economic growth, with MINISO LAND achieving impressive sales figures in August, reaching 16 million yuan, setting a record for single-store monthly sales for MINISO globally [1] - IP products are the main driver of performance, accounting for 83% of sales at the MINISO LAND store [1] - The successful implementation of the "large store strategy" and the explosive market potential of MINISO are evidenced by the store's achievement of over 100 million yuan in sales within the first nine months of operation [1] Financial Performance - For the second quarter of 2025, MINISO Group reported total revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.1% [1] - As of the end of June, MINISO LAND has expanded to 11 stores across major cities including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Chengdu, with an average monthly store efficiency reaching several million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso (MNSO.US) experienced a significant stock increase of over 12%, closing at $24.91, following the release of its financial report for the first half of 2025, which showed a revenue growth of 21.1% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Miniso reported a revenue of 9.393 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.1% [1] - The profit attributable to equity shareholders was 906 million RMB, which represents a decline of 22.6% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.74 RMB [1] - The company declared an interim cash dividend of $0.2896 per American Depositary Share or 0.0724 RMB per ordinary share [1] Quarterly Highlights - In the second quarter, Miniso achieved a revenue of 4.97 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 23.1%, surpassing the management's previous guidance of 18%-21% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the second quarter increased by 10.6% year-on-year to 690 million RMB [1] - Revenue from TOP TOY surged by 87.0%, setting a new record [1] Sales Growth - The company’s Executive Director and Chairman, Ye Guofu, indicated that same-store sales in mainland China turned positive in the second quarter and are expected to accelerate further into the third quarter [1] - Miniso anticipates positive same-store sales growth for the entire year in mainland China [1]

Group 1 - Miniso (09896) announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase 6,600 shares at a total cost of HKD 250,600 [1] - The buyback price per share is set between HKD 37.75 and HKD 38 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 4.43 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.9%. The gross margin was 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-over-year. Operating profit was 710 million, down 4.05% year-over-year, while adjusted net profit was 590 million, down 4.9% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.3%, down 3.3 percentage points year-over-year [5] - The company expects revenues of 20.54 billion, 24.43 billion, and 28.28 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 21%, 19%, and 16%. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.76 billion, 3.35 billion, and 4.06 billion for the same years, with year-over-year growth rates of 1%, 21%, and 21% [6] - Domestic business is shifting from rapid store expansion to a focus on high-quality growth, with same-store sales expected to improve. In Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 2.5 billion, up 9.1% year-over-year, with same-store sales showing improvement from a previous decline [9] - The overseas business is experiencing rapid growth, with Q1 2025 overseas revenue at 1.6 billion, up 30.3% year-over-year, accounting for 36% of total revenue. The number of overseas stores reached 3,213, with a net increase of 95 stores [9] Financial Summary - For 2024A, the company reported total revenue of 16.99 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 23%. Adjusted net profit was 2.72 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 15% [8] - The company’s financial ratios indicate a return on equity (ROE) of 26.3% for 2024A, with a projected decline to 17.8% in 2025E [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q1 2025 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue increasing by 19% year-on-year to 4.4 billion yuan, but adjusted net profit declining by 5% to 587 million yuan due to increased sales and financial expenses from upfront investments in direct stores [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 4.4 billion yuan, a 19% year-on-year increase, while adjusted net profit decreased by 5% to 587 million yuan [1]. - Domestic business revenue grew by 9% to 2.5 billion yuan, with same-store sales declining in the mid-single digits, and a net reduction of 111 stores [1]. - Overseas business revenue increased by 30% to 1.6 billion yuan, with a total of 3,213 stores, but same-store sales also saw a mid-single-digit decline due to high base effects [1]. - TOPTOY business revenue surged by 59% to 340 million yuan, indicating strong growth [1]. Group 2: Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2%, driven by higher-margin overseas operations and increased revenue from TOPTOY [2]. - Sales expense ratio rose significantly by 4.4 percentage points to 23.1% due to increased upfront investments in direct stores [2]. - Financial expenses increased to 50 million yuan from a net income of 25 million yuan in the previous year, influenced by interest from stock-linked securities and loans [2]. - Adjusted net profit margin decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 13.3% due to rising tax rates and other expenses [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to advancing its IP strategy, focusing on interest-based consumption, with several new product lines launched this year [2]. - Plans include expanding the breadth and depth of IP collaborations to create differentiated products [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims for positive same-store sales growth in domestic operations for the full year, particularly after improvements noted during the May Day holiday [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025/26 have been revised down by 14% and 8% to 2.7 billion and 3.5 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - Target prices for Hong Kong and US stocks have been reduced by 8% to 42.28 HKD and 21.82 USD, respectively, reflecting a valuation adjustment [3].

Financial Performance - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.43 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, exceeding the market estimate of 4.41 billion RMB [1][3] - Net profit for the quarter was 416.5 million RMB, down 28.8% from 586 million RMB in the same period last year [1][3] - Adjusted net profit was 587.2 million RMB, below the expected 661.3 million RMB [1][3] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.4%, down from 25.9% in Q1 2024 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the MINISO brand reached 4.09 billion RMB, a 16.5% increase, with mainland China contributing 2.49 billion RMB (up 9.1%) and overseas markets contributing 1.59 billion RMB (up 30.3%) [4][5] - TOP TOY brand revenue was 340 million RMB, a significant increase of 58.9%, driven by rapid growth in average store count [4][5] Store Expansion - As of March 31, 2025, the total number of stores for the group was 7,768, with a net increase of 978 stores year-on-year [5][6] - The number of MINISO stores reached 7,488, with 4,275 located in mainland China and 3,213 overseas, marking a net increase of 241 and 617 stores respectively [6][7] Management Commentary - The CEO expressed confidence in achieving sustainable high-quality growth, attributing revenue growth to a strong recovery in same-store sales and strategic store network development [8] - The company plans to enhance collaboration with overseas partners, upgrade store formats, and improve operational efficiency to unlock expansion potential [8]

Core Viewpoint - MINISO has released its 2024 ESG report, highlighting its excellent practices in social responsibility, green products, and charitable activities, with a focus on sustainability and corporate governance [1] Group 1: ESG Ratings and Corporate Governance - MINISO has received an "AA" rating from MSCI for three consecutive years, leading the industry in corporate behavior, privacy and data security, and labor management [1] - The company emphasizes the integration of ESG principles into all business operations, aiming to create long-term sustainable value for society [1] Group 2: Employee Diversity and Welfare - As of the end of 2024, 60.8% of MINISO's employees are from overseas markets, with a 100% localization rate for store managers in direct markets like Vietnam [1] - The company promotes a family-friendly workplace, with 65% of employees in mainland China being female, and 55.9% of managerial positions held by women, surpassing industry averages [1][2] Group 3: Employee Incentives and Community Engagement - MINISO has granted stock incentives to approximately 500 directors, executives, and key employees, along with various welfare bonuses to enhance employee satisfaction and sense of belonging [2] - The company actively engages in public welfare projects focused on children, women, serious illnesses, disasters, and animal protection, including a significant donation of 10 million RMB to establish an animal protection fund [2] Group 4: Product Responsibility and Sustainability Initiatives - MINISO has developed 26 SKUs of Tritan plastic cups, with Tritan products exceeding PC products in development, and has replaced single-use plastics with paper materials in 37 SKUs [2] - The company plans to create more green products across various categories and will introduce the "MINISO ECO" label for broader application [3] Group 5: Future Strategic Goals - MINISO aims to leverage its strong ESG performance as a driver for high-quality development and plans to lead 100 Chinese IPs to global markets, transitioning from "Chinese MINISO" to "Global MINISO" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for Q4 2024, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and profit, indicating robust operational momentum and effective brand strategies [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 16.99 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.62 billion yuan, up 16.2% [3]. - For Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 4.71 billion yuan, a 22.7% increase year-on-year, and a profit of 810 million yuan, reflecting a 26.7% growth [3]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 44.9%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 2024 gross margin reaching 47.0%, up 3.9 percentage points [4]. - The MINISO brand revenue for 2024 was 16 billion yuan, growing by 22.0%, driven by a 10.9% increase in domestic revenue and a 41.9% increase in overseas revenue [4]. Brand and Market Expansion - The company expanded its store network significantly, adding over 600 stores internationally, bringing the total to 7,504 MINISO stores and 276 TOP TOY stores by the end of 2024 [5]. - The opening of the MINISO LAND store in Beijing introduced an immersive IP experience, enhancing brand engagement and customer attraction [5].

Financial Overview - The total revenue for FY24 is 17 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 23%, with an average store count increase of 18% and same-store sales showing a slight decline in low single digits [1][2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 3.7 percentage points to 44.9%, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth, primarily driven by the IP strategy [2][3] - The adjusted net profit for FY24 was 6.2 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1.41% [1] Revenue Breakdown - MINISO brand revenue reached 16 billion RMB, up 22% year-on-year, with domestic revenue at 9.3 billion RMB (up 11%) and international revenue at 6.7 billion RMB (up 42%) [1][2] - The overseas revenue accounted for 39% of total revenue, an increase from 34% the previous year [1] Store Expansion - As of December 2024, the total number of stores reached 7,780, with a net increase of 1,290 stores, exceeding the opening targets for 2024 [3][4] - The number of MINISO stores in China reached 4,386, with a net increase of 460 stores [4] Membership and Customer Engagement - Global registered members exceeded 100 million, with member purchases accounting for over 60% of total sales, and average member spending being 2.2 times that of non-members [4] Future Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic revenue growth outlook for 2025, anticipating lower growth rates in the first half due to base effects, with higher growth expected in the second half [2] - The store expansion strategy aims to double the number of stores by the end of 2028 compared to the end of 2023 [2]