热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 消息方面，截至2025年12月31日，云南全省共入榨甘蔗346.10万吨（上榨季同期入榨甘蔗281.35万 吨），产糖39.23万吨（上榨季同期产糖32.69万吨），产糖率11.34%（上榨季同期产糖率11.62%）。生 产酒精0.129万吨（上榨季同期生产酒精0.096万吨）。云南省累计销售新糖28.14万吨（去年同期销糖 26.71万吨），销糖率71.72%（去年同期销糖率81.70%）。单月销售食糖24.91万吨（去年同期单月销售 食糖23.44万吨），工业库存11.09万吨（去年同期工业库存5.98万吨）。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团 报价区间为5320~5380元/吨，上调10~30元/吨；云南制糖集团报价5140~5230元/吨，上调10~20元/吨。 原糖方面，北半球压榨稳步进行，市场并无新的主导因素。国内近期金融市场、大宗商品普涨，投资市 场情绪偏暖，糖价受此提振小幅反弹，短期仍将受这种情绪影响，震荡偏强，可关注市场给出的卖保机 会。基本面方面近期 ...

近一年中国棉花进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国棉花行业市场竞争态势及未来前景展望报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年11月中国棉花进口数量为12万吨，同比增长9.4%，进口金额为2.05亿美 元，同比增长1.8%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The cotton price uptrend is slowing down, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,750 yuan/ton with a -0.29% daily increase, and its night - session price was 13,720 yuan/ton with a -0.22% - -0.45% change. CY2603 closed at 20,005 yuan/ton with a 0.58% daily increase, and its night - session price was 19,915 yuan/ton. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 63.95 cents/pound with a -0.14% daily increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 280,440 lots, a decrease of 51,142 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,038,862 lots, a decrease of 1,599 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 5,202 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 15,318 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,709, an increase of 70, and the effective forecast was 2,781, an increase of 35. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 12, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 12 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,626 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or -0.41%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,643 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or -0.27%. The price in Shandong was 15,026 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan or 0.11%. The price in Hebei was 15,017 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan or 0.25%. The 3128B index was 15,022 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan or 0.16%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.13 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.44% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was mainly based on locked basis, with low - basis transactions performing well. The low - basis of cotton spot was firm, while the high - basis was still being adjusted down. The freight for cotton to be transported out of Xinjiang by truck was still rising steadily [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with average trading atmosphere. High - count yarns still had good sales due to low production capacity, while the sales of other varieties slowed down and inventories accumulated. The开机 situation was divided, with Xinjiang textile enterprises maintaining a high开机 level and some inland textile enterprises reducing their开机. The overall situation of all - cotton grey fabric weaving mills was dull, with local market conditions continuing, general sales, weak shipment volumes, increasing inventories in weaving mills, and negotiable prices [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued to decline due to poor weekly US cotton export data, but the decline was limited due to the weak US dollar [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral view [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the fundamental perspective, although the previous peak season was lackluster, the demand after the peak season was not too bad. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds entered the market to push up cotton prices. However, there was no strong driving force in the short term, and coupled with the pressure of hedging orders, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend was not high [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In November, the price of US cotton futures declined slightly. As of November 28, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was 64.73 cents per pound, a decrease of 2.05 cents per pound or 3.07% from the previous month. The spread between the March and May contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reaching - 1.24 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.08 cents per pound from the previous month. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated within a narrow range. As of November 28, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,725 yuan per ton, an increase of 130 yuan per ton or 0.96% from the previous month. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,896 yuan per ton, an increase of 36 yuan per ton from the previous month. The basis was 1,189 yuan per ton, a decrease of 65 yuan per ton from the previous month. The spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated, reaching 40 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week ending November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years (72.1%). The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. According to the latest monthly supply - demand report of the USDA, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. Among them, the production in the US was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the production in Brazil was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the production in India remained at the forecast of 5.23 million tons; and the production in China was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Fundamentally, the previous peak season was lackluster, but the demand after the peak season was not too bad. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds entered the market to push up cotton prices. However, there was no strong driving force in the short term, and coupled with the pressure of hedging orders, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend was not high [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: On November 28, 2025, the basis was 1,189 yuan per ton, the spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton was 40 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was - 1,034 yuan per ton, the spread between Zhejiang and Xinjiang was 367 yuan per ton, and the cost (FC index M 1%) was 12,935 yuan per ton, and (FC index M sliding - scale duty) was 13,932 yuan per ton. The multi - empty scores were all +0, and the basis weakened while other indicators changed little. The conclusion was that the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend was not high [10]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: The recommended strategy was to wait and see [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presented multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract, the import profit (1% tariff and sliding - scale duty internal and external spreads), the Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads (1 - 5 and 5 - 9), the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread, the spinning mill immediate profit, the US cotton contract spreads (12 - 3 and 3 - 5), and the external spreads (US - Brazil spread and FCindexM1% - CotlookA index 1% tariff) [25][27][29] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: The report showed the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton through charts [38]. - **Cotton Import Volume**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton were presented [40]. - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China were shown [43]. - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn were presented [45]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills were shown [48]. - **National Sales Progress**: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City were presented [50]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The weekly commercial inventory and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory of Chinese cotton were shown [53]. - **Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory**: The cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills were presented [55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: The proportion of US cotton planting areas without drought and the excellent - good rate were shown, as well as the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes [59][60]. - **US Production and Planting Area**: The production forecast and planting area of US cotton were presented [63]. - **US Export Contract Progress**: The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year were shown [65]. - **US Export Shipment Volume**: The annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton were presented [67]. - **US Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of US cotton were shown [68]. - **Brazilian Production and Planting Area**: The planting area and production of Brazilian cotton were presented [70]. - **Brazilian Export Volume**: The export volume of Brazilian cotton was shown [73]. - **Brazilian Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton were shown [75]. - **Indian Production and Planting Area**: The planting area and production of Indian cotton were presented [78]. - **Indian Consumption and Import - Export**: The consumption, import, and export volumes of Indian cotton were shown [81]. - **Indian Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton were shown [83].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily of November 26, 2024, focusing on the cotton and cotton yarn markets [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13625 with a decrease of 20, and its trading volume was 172,621 with a decrease of 65278 [2] Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as the CCIndex3128B at 14882 yuan/ton with an increase of 89, and the CY IndexC32S at 20660 yuan/ton with no change [2] Spread Market - Different spreads, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - product spreads, are given. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton is 40 with a decrease of 25, and the CY01 - CF01 spread is 6445 with an increase of 25 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - The average temperature and rainfall in the main US cotton - producing areas have increased. As of November 23, the cotton harvest rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states is 79%, slower than last year and the five - year average. The 2025/26 cotton prices and transaction basis in Xinjiang are also reported [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate within a limited range [5] Trading Strategies - For the single - side trading, it is expected that US cotton will fluctuate within a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will also show a fluctuating trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The night - session of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a fluctuating trend. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders. The inventory of pure cotton yarn continued to rise. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable with a weakening trend. The demand for all - cotton clothing grey cloth was weak [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - The data of several cotton options contracts, including the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other indicators, are provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract closed at 183.00 with a 71.0% increase, and its implied volatility was 6.7% [11] Volatility and Strategy - The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of different options contracts are reported. The PCR values of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for options trading [11][12][13] Group 5: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts showing the spreads between domestic and foreign cotton markets, cotton basis at different months, spreads between cotton and cotton yarn, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [14][18][23][25]

近一年中国棉花进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国棉花行业市场竞争态势及未来前景展望报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年10月中国棉花进口数量为9万吨，同比下降15.6%，进口金额为1.58亿美 元，同比下降21%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. The supply side features a large number of new flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production this year but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side enters a relatively off - season after the peak season, and previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. Meanwhile, future Sino - US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [7]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a fluctuating state, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton futures are 13,600, 13,615, and 13,780 respectively, with corresponding increases of 5, 10, and 25. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn futures are 19,920, 0, and 0 respectively, with corresponding increases of 45, - 19,920, and - 20,085. There are also data on trading volume, open interest, and their changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 14,859 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the price of Cot A is 76.45 cents/pound, up 77.40 cents/pound; the price of (FC Index):M: to - port price is 75.60 cents/pound, down 0.80 cents/pound. There are also prices and price changes of other spot products [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May is - 15, down 5; between May and September is - 165, down 15; between September and January is 180, up 20. In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May is 19,920, up 19,965; between May and September is 0, up 165; between September and January is - 19,920, down - 20,130. There are also cross - variety spreads and internal - external spreads [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On November 3, 2025, the price of China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last Friday; the price of 2129B was 15,137 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The delivery price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 14,530 yuan/ton for 3128B, down 10 yuan/ton; 14,820 yuan/ton for 2129B, unchanged from last Friday. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton opened higher and then fluctuated downward on Friday, with the basis quote basically stable and the spot transaction price relatively stable [4]. - On November 2, 2025, the acquisition index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day; the acquisition index of hand - picked cotton was 7.04 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. In Aksu, the lint percentage of seed cotton purchased by some ginneries was 0.5% - 1.0% lower than last year, and the purchase price of high - lint - percentage seed cotton remained at about 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg [5]. - In September 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the peak season, with both the import volume and value increasing significantly compared to the previous month. The import value was 372.276 billion yen (equivalent to 2.524 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 7.52% and a month - on - month increase of 13.12%. The import volume was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.13% and a month - on - month increase of 21.91%. From January to September, Japan's cumulative clothing import value was 2,685.447 billion yen (equivalent to 18.103 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, and the cumulative import volume was 713,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69% [5]. - As of October 27, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 33,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42%. Among them, bonded cotton was 3.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.43%; non - bonded cotton was 2,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%. In terms of the origin of imported cotton, in the cotton inventory of Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, US cotton accounted for 26.64%, a year - on - year decrease of 20.87 percentage points; Brazilian cotton accounted for 23.38%, a year - on - year increase of 4.37 percentage points; Australian cotton accounted for 45.94%, a year - on - year increase of 14.29 percentage points; other countries and regions accounted for 4.05%, a year - on - year increase of 2.21 percentage points. The net inbound volume was - 807.15 tons, with 1,154.15 tons out of storage and 347 tons into storage. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly, and cotton imports continued to recover in September and October, with an increase in US and Brazilian cotton arriving in Hong Kong, but the outbound speed accelerated, leading to a decline in storage capacity [6]. Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, with a large number of new flowers on the market in November, there may be some selling and hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with a large number of new flowers on the market on the supply side and a significant increase in production this year but the increase may be less than expected, and with average recent orders on the demand side but previous negative factors already reflected in the market, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. In addition, there may be trade negotiations between China and the US, and the Sino - US tariff agreement expires in November, so future Sino - US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [7]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a fluctuating state, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Wait and see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved slightly last week and market confidence recovered to some extent, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly, and there was still significant hedging pressure on cotton. After some quotes of pure cotton yarn were tentatively raised, the market returned to calm, and most actual transaction prices changed little. Due to the lack of order support, only a few varieties had good sales, such as C40, high - count export varieties, and low - count compact - spun yarn. Most air - jet spun and combed yarns had relatively slow sales, and the market mainly consisted of small, urgent, and necessary orders. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the trend of Zhengzhou cotton. The current tax - included cash price of high - compact C32S produced in Jiangsu is 21,300 - 21,500 yuan/ton, subject to negotiation for actual orders [10]. - The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, with insufficient trading atmosphere. The quantity and price of pure - cotton cloth in the spot market were weak, so fabric mills mostly purchased raw materials as needed. Downstream customers mainly placed necessary orders. With weak terminal demand, the operation space was reduced, and most customers adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards the fabric mills' dumping information. Even if the price was discounted, they were reluctant to stock up without orders [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 3, 2025, for the option contract CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,600, the closing price was 260, and the decline was 10.0%. For CF601P13000.CZC, the closing price was 25, and the decline was 34.2%. For CF601P12400.CZC, the closing price was 8, and the decline was 60.0%. There are also data on implied volatility, Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage [12]. - **Volatility and Trading Suggestion**: The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7%. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7135, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.7629. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [13][14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the chart of the internal - external market cotton price difference under 1% tariff, the charts of cotton basis for January, May, and September, the charts of the spread between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, CF9 - 1, and CF5 - 9 [15][19][20].

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国棉花行业市场竞争态势及未来前景展望报告》 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年4月中国棉花进口数量为6万吨，同比下降82.2%，进口金额为1.17亿美 元，同比下降83.5%。 近一年中国棉花进口情况统计图 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国棉花行业市场竞争态势及未来前景展望报告》 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年8月中国棉花进口数量为7万吨，同比下降51.6%，进口金额为1.32亿美 元，同比下降55.7%。 近一年中国棉花进口情况统计图 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant decline in China's cotton imports, with a volume of 50,000 tons in July 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 73.2% [1] - The import value for the same period is reported at 10.2 million USD, which is a year-on-year decline of 75.2% [1] Industry Overview - The data is sourced from Chinese customs, indicating a critical shift in the cotton market dynamics within China [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1]