Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant decline in China's cotton imports, with a volume of 50,000 tons in July 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 73.2% [1] - The import value for the same period is reported at 10.2 million USD, which is a year-on-year decline of 75.2% [1] Industry Overview - The data is sourced from Chinese customs, indicating a critical shift in the cotton market dynamics within China [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1]

棉花：美棉小幅反弹 郑棉窄幅震荡 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：棉花期货日度数据监测 | | | | | | | शुद | 日 度 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 截止 | 单位 | BEF | 文日 | 派联星 | 涨跌幅 | 月同比 | 年同比 | 力史位直 | | | | 收盘价 | 8/5 | 元/吨 | 13675 | 13655 | -20 | -0.15% | -125 | -300 | 27.37% | | | | 成交量 | 8/5 | ਵੇ | 190204 | 123320 | -66884 | -35.16% | 4887 | -157669 | 42.86% | | | CF09 (主力) | 持仓量 | 8/5 | 글 | 304033 | 292430 | -11603 | -3.82% | -253699 | -93132 | ...

Market Review - Cotton futures for the main contract CF2509 increased by 0.04% to 12,900 CNY/ton, while ICE cotton fell by 0.96% to 66.73 cents/pound. Domestic spot prices decreased by 0.1% to 14,124 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The USDA report indicates that from April 25 to May 1, the net export contracts for U.S. cotton for the 2024/25 season were 14,900 tons, a 39% increase from the previous week but a 50% decrease from the four-week average [2] - As of May 2, the CFTC data shows that the ON-call unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton were 50,451 contracts, an increase of 1,165 contracts week-on-week, while unpriced buy orders rose by 1,346 contracts to 87,656 [2] - Brazil's export data revealed that in April, cotton exports reached 239,145.21 tons, with an average daily export of 11,957.26 tons, a 9% increase compared to the daily average of 10,973.14 tons in April of the previous year [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Wenkang Futures, the domestic cotton spinning industry's consumption peak has ended, leading to a decline in downstream operating rates, with a significant year-on-year decrease. Despite low import levels, cotton inventory continues to decrease slightly, indicating a weak supply-demand balance [3] - Hongyuan Futures notes that optimism regarding the first trade negotiations between China and the U.S. has waned, shifting focus to the bleak outlook for U.S. cotton demand. The results of trade negotiations between the EU, Japan, and the U.S. have been unsatisfactory, and significant progress in the upcoming China-U.S. talks is unlikely [3] - If U.S. tariffs remain high, such as at 50%, the significance of negotiations diminishes. Therefore, the recent rebound in Zheng cotton prices may be driven by psychological expectations, leading to potential volatility in cotton prices [3]