2026 年 1 月 25 日 联合研究 光研集萃（2026 年 1 月第 3 期） ——光大周度观点一览 要点 策略周度观点 保持稳健，持股过节。本周市场继续小幅震荡上行，同时前期上涨行业出现了一 定程度的分化，市场交易热度也出现了一定程度的降温。参考之前的市场行情， 我们认为春节前市场将会保持震荡，难以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之前投 资者交易热度有所下行，以及微观流动性短期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节 前 20 个交易日，主要指数上涨概率不足 50%。预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一 轮上行动力，春节后 20 个交易日主要指数上行概率与平均涨幅均较高。因此建 议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。结构层面上，成长风格与小盘风格通 常在春季行情中明显占优，成长领域仍然将是中期主线，建议关注基本面更加扎 实的半导体产业链、AI 硬件、新能源等方向。 本周重点行业 【电新】1）光伏：行情跟随商业航天消息面催化，马斯克表示 SpaceX 与 Tesla 将在 3 年内在美国建设 100GW 光伏产能，并且未来将发射太阳能供电的 AI 卫 星；2）氢氨醇：在政策持续加码背景下"十五五"期间有望获得更多投资；3） ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong start to the year, with major indices showing significant increases, indicating a rise in market risk appetite [5] - The financing amount increased significantly, reflecting a continued optimistic performance in the market [5] - The spring market rally is anticipated to continue, supported by improved market sentiment [5] Group 2: Fixed Income - In the credit bond market, 332 bonds were issued with a total issuance scale of 312.27 billion, marking a 30.6% increase compared to the previous period [6] - Credit spreads varied across industries, with the largest increase in the food and beverage sector (up 2.1 basis points) and the largest decrease in the telecommunications sector (down 8.3 basis points) [6] Group 3: Commodities - The TC spot price reached a historical low, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate procurement, while domestic social inventory continues to grow [7] - Despite the pressure on demand from rising copper prices, the supply-demand situation is expected to remain tight, with a positive outlook for copper prices in 2026 [7] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The small nucleic acid drug market is projected to experience rapid growth in 2026, with key players like Bluestar Technology and Lonza leading breakthroughs in critical areas [8] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has introduced measures against Japan, increasing the urgency for domestic substitution of key semiconductor materials [8] Group 5: Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - The photovoltaic industry is expected to focus on coordination and method restructuring, while the battery industry is advised to prevent oversupply in energy storage batteries [9] - Investment opportunities are identified in domestic computing power, hydrogen energy, and upstream energy storage sectors, with a positive outlook for lithium carbonate prices in the short term [9]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The US real estate market is currently in a "weak supply and demand" state, with expectations of a weak recovery by 2026 due to challenges in policy transmission and external risks [2] - Industrial profits in November continued to decline year-on-year, with only the midstream equipment sector showing stable growth, while upstream and downstream sectors weakened [3] - The A-share market has not shown clear signs of a bull market peak, indicating continued potential for market performance [4] Group 2: Market Strategies - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally supported by ongoing policy efforts and capital inflows, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors [5] - The REITs market has shown signs of price recovery after five weeks of decline, with notable returns compared to other asset classes [6] - Credit bond issuance increased by 15.42% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in the credit market [7] Group 3: Industry Research - The green methanol sector is rapidly growing under the "carbon neutrality" initiative, with a focus on companies that have established a complete supply chain [10] - The engineering machinery industry is witnessing a recovery in domestic demand and accelerated overseas growth, with several key manufacturers recommended for investment [11] - Strategic metals are expected to see investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [12] Group 4: Company Research - Sinopec Engineering's acquisition of the East China Pipeline Design Institute is expected to enhance its competitive edge in pipeline transportation [19] - China Oil Engineering has signed a $424 million EPC contract for a pipeline project in Kazakhstan, indicating its proactive expansion into overseas markets [20] - Jinhui Liquor is positioned to benefit from regional brand advantages and market expansion, with strong revenue and profit growth projections [21]

Overall Viewpoint - The AIDC power/storage sector is experiencing a positive outlook, with North American AI chain focusing on light modules, liquid cooling, AIDC power, and AI storage. Recent developments in liquid cooling have opened up new opportunities for AIDC power overseas orders, and the 26H2 HVDC technology solution is expected to see increased volume. Collaboration related to SST is also anticipated to yield results. The overseas energy storage market remains robust, with the logic of electricity shortages in the U.S. unchanged, and a temporary easing of U.S.-China relations. The market is currently less sensitive to BBB and 301-related legislation, warranting continued attention to AIDC power and overseas storage sectors [4]. Group 1: AIDC Power/Storage - The North American AI chain is prioritizing light modules, liquid cooling, AIDC power, and AI storage, with liquid cooling trends enhancing the potential for AIDC power overseas orders [4]. - The 26H2 HVDC technology solution is expected to facilitate increased production, while SST-related collaborations are projected to gradually materialize [4]. - The overseas energy storage market remains favorable, with the U.S. electricity shortage logic still intact, and a temporary thaw in U.S.-China relations [4]. Group 2: Lithium Battery - Recent environmental assessments for the Jiangxia lithium mine and Tianqi Lithium's decision to not use SMM pricing have influenced the market, with several lithium iron phosphate companies announcing production cuts to strengthen pricing negotiations [4]. - Changes in the supply side of lithium carbonate and the "anti-involution" logic are enhancing price support expectations, leading to a recovery in the lithium battery sector during the spring market [4]. - The investment hierarchy for lithium battery materials is as follows: lithium carbonate > lithium hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode [4]. Group 3: Hydrogen Ammonia and Wind Power - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, hydrogen ammonia is viewed as a significant direction for new energy consumption and non-electric applications, supported by future industry prospects and the EU carbon tariff in 2026 [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the potential for coordinated, large-scale, and advanced construction of hydrogen ammonia projects [5]. - Although Goldwind Technology's stock has surged due to commercial aerospace trends, market expectations for hydrogen ammonia remain relatively low, indicating a need for continued focus [5].

Group 1 - The global scale of green and low-carbon methanol projects is rapidly increasing under the "carbon neutrality" background, with a total planned capacity of 56.3 million tons by November 2025; GENA Solutions estimates that the actual global production capacity of green methanol could reach 6 to 13 million tons by 2030, with securing purchase agreements and financing during the construction phase being the core challenges for project implementation [4][5] - The gasification stage of biomass methanol technology is the core of process control, and its technical level and operational stability directly determine the feasibility and economics of the project; the three methanol production process routes each have their advantages and disadvantages, and balancing costs and carbon utilization rates based on raw material characteristics is a key test for project implementation [4] - Green methanol projects require a core closed loop of resources, technology, and customer composition from planning to mass production; stable and accessible biomass raw materials and low-cost renewable energy are essential for ensuring the sustainability and economy of raw material supply; technology is the core support, with both electrolysis and biomass methanol technologies having application prospects, while customer engagement is crucial for locking in future cash flows through long-term purchase agreements in the context of high green methanol costs [5]

Group 1 - The domestic energy storage sector is experiencing sustained demand, with significant GWh-level tenders such as CGN's 7.2GWh energy storage system and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' 1200MWh independent energy storage project [4] - The independent energy storage market is expected to maintain a good level in 2026, supported by the development of the energy market, capacity market, and ancillary services market [4] - The overseas energy storage demand remains strong, particularly in the U.S. and non-U.S. countries, with potential growth in regions like the Middle East and Ukraine [4] Group 2 - The world's largest integrated green hydrogen and ammonia project, the China Energy Construction Corporation's Songyuan Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park, has officially commenced production, indicating a positive trend for the hydrogen sector [5] - Poland has successfully awarded its first offshore wind power tenders, distributing 3.4GW of installed capacity, which is expected to enhance the European offshore wind market [5] - The hydrogen and ammonia sector is anticipated to receive more investment due to favorable policies and the emphasis on large-scale construction [5] Group 3 - Recent environmental assessments for the Qianxiawo lithium mine indicate a potential continuation of the lithium carbonate destocking trend, with expectations for demand in the lithium battery sector to remain strong [5] - The supply side of the lithium battery industry is expected to improve, with a focus on investment opportunities in lithium mines and segments like aluminum foil and anodes that are not yet supporting expansion [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Focus - The conference call primarily discusses the **electric power and new energy industry** with a focus on various segments such as **hydrogen ammonia**, **AIDC power**, **energy storage**, **solid-state batteries**, **lithium batteries**, **wind power**, and **photovoltaics** [1][2][21]. Core Insights and Arguments High Growth and Anti-Competition Strategies - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes **high growth** and **anti-competition** as the main themes. Key areas of focus include: - **Hydrogen ammonia** and **AIDC power** are highlighted for their high market potential but low expectations, especially with upcoming policies like the 15th Five-Year Plan and EU carbon tariffs [2][21]. - **Energy storage** is expected to maintain good bidding conditions in the domestic market, with projections of **150 GWh** for 2025 and **250-300 GWh** for 2026 [11]. - **Solid-state batteries** are anticipated to remain relevant until **2027-2028**, with emphasis on R&D and cost reduction [1][2]. Lithium Battery and Wind Power - The **lithium battery** sector is showing positive trends in the second half of the year, but future expectations need monitoring [2]. - The **wind power** market, particularly in Europe, is performing well, with domestic profitability recovering. However, demand growth is slower compared to lithium batteries [7][15]. Photovoltaic Industry Challenges - The **photovoltaic industry** faces challenges such as supply surplus, leading to a cautious outlook. Demand is projected to be between **150-180 GW** for 2026, with a low expectation of exceeding **200 GW** [8][9][18]. - Companies like **LONGi** that are involved in energy storage are noted for their potential growth opportunities [9]. Additional Important Insights Energy Storage Market Dynamics - The **peak-valley price difference** in energy storage is currently around **0.2 to 0.4 yuan**, with regional variations. The eastern region shows a peak-valley price difference of about **0.2 yuan**, while the western region can reach **0.3-0.4 yuan** [4][10]. - The **capacity price** varies by region, with Inner Mongolia offering aggressive subsidies and Gansu adopting a more rational approach [10]. Lithium Resource Outlook - The outlook for **lithium resources** remains optimistic, with a focus on overseas storage demand and domestic bidding volumes. Monitoring data in December and January is crucial for future trends [6][21]. Risks and Opportunities - The main risks across sectors stem from demand uncertainty and potential policy changes affecting the anti-competition strategy. The need for a clear understanding of new power systems and tracking overseas data is emphasized [19][20]. - Despite challenges, there are investment opportunities in sectors like hydrogen ammonia, AIDC power, and lithium resources, particularly in regions with low expectations [21][22]. Recommendations - Companies in the **solid-state transformer (SFT)** sector such as **Sungrow Power**, **Jinpan**, **Xinte Energy**, and **Sifang Shenghong** are recommended for their technological and market advantages [5]. - In the **anti-competition sector**, lithium and wind power are prioritized, while photovoltaic companies with new growth logic are also recommended [22].

Overall Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to adhere to "dual carbon" goals by 2026, promoting a comprehensive green transition and advancing energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations in key industries [4] - The conference also highlights the importance of developing a national carbon emissions trading market and fostering new growth points such as hydrogen energy and green fuels, along with the establishment of zero-carbon parks and factories [4] - The investment opportunities in the green energy sector, including hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, green electricity, and energy storage, are expected to remain strong in 2026 [4] Group 1: Domestic Energy Storage - In November, domestic energy storage installations saw significant growth, with a total new installed capacity of 4.51 GW/13.03 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 57.14% (power) and 74.66% (capacity), and a year-on-year increase of 45.95% (power) and 49.6% (capacity) [5] - The independent energy storage bidding in 2026 is anticipated to maintain a favorable level, supported by the development of the industry and the establishment of a complete revenue model through energy markets [5] - The rapid increase in compressed air energy storage is noted in the recent bidding results [5] Group 2: Hydrogen, Ammonia, and Wind Power - The central economic meeting indicates a focus on cultivating hydrogen energy and green fuels as new growth points, with plans to build zero-carbon parks and factories [6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to benefit from both China's future industries and the EU carbon tariff, making hydrogen and ammonia promising directions for investment [6] Group 3: Lithium Batteries - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in the first week of December reached 185,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 17% and a month-on-month decrease of 10%, indicating high policy sensitivity among consumers [7] - The central economic work conference's deployment to optimize "two new" policy implementations suggests the continuation of national subsidy policies to stimulate automotive consumption [7] - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a trend of improvement, with companies launching large capacity storage battery solutions aimed at cost reduction [7]

Overall Viewpoint - Hydrogen ammonia and methanol, along with wind power, are expected to attract more investment due to the dual benefits of China's future industries and the EU carbon tariff in 2026. The global shipping industry is accelerating its decarbonization, and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is promoting green fuel policies, which may keep green methanol prices high amid rising demand and limited supply. The current market expectations for the hydrogen ammonia and methanol sector are low, which can resonate with the wind power sector [4] - The ongoing electricity shortage in the U.S. is highlighted, with Nvidia's current shipment scale corresponding to data center power levels. The gap between actual power supply and grid capacity in the U.S. is a key focus for market speculation. Short-term fluctuations in stock prices are influenced by interest rate expectations and short-selling, but technology remains the main trend, with a focus on opportunities for rebounds in the overseas energy storage and SST sectors [4] Domestic Energy Storage - Heilongjiang Province has released a special implementation plan for large-scale new energy storage construction (2025-2027), aiming for an installed capacity of over 6GW by 2027. The first batch involves 1.45GW, with a reliable capacity compensation mechanism being established. Provinces are improving capacity price compensation mechanisms to ensure financing for independent energy storage. It is anticipated that independent energy storage bidding in 2026 will maintain a good level similar to 2025, and as the industry develops, independent storage will achieve a complete revenue model through energy, capacity, and ancillary service markets. After 2027, the growth of independent energy storage installations will align closely with load growth [5] Lithium Battery - The market is currently speculating on the production expectations for domestic energy storage in 2026, with short-term positive expectations remaining unchallenged. Growth expectations for power batteries and overseas energy storage are consistent. Additionally, the lithium battery supply chain is experiencing a "reverse involution" logic, indicating a trend of supply-demand improvement. From the perspective of supply-demand tightness in the supply chain, lithium hexafluorophosphate is the most constrained, followed by separators, copper foil, high-pressure lithium iron phosphate, and anodes. Short-term expectations for lithium hexafluorophosphate are already high, and subsequent stages are gradually entering long-term contract signing. Mid-term investment opportunities should focus on lithium mines with significant supply variability and separator segments where profitability does not support expansion [5]

Core Viewpoint - The hydrogen and ammonia industry is facing significant challenges and opportunities in 2025, with a notable number of hydrogen ammonia projects being canceled or terminated, reflecting real difficulties in cost, technology maturity, market absorption, and policy support [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Project Cancellations and Challenges - Multiple local governments have set strict deadlines for integrated wind-solar hydrogen projects, leading to the termination of several projects that failed to meet these requirements [4][5]. - The cancellation of the world's largest green methanol project in Inner Mongolia, with an investment of 18.53 billion, highlights the impact of these policies [4]. - Economic challenges remain a core constraint, as the high costs associated with renewable energy and hydrogen production make financial models fragile, leading to project withdrawals [6]. Group 2: Industry Adjustment and Benchmark Projects - The recent wave of project cancellations is viewed as a necessary adjustment for the industry, moving from enthusiasm to rationality, and paving the way for long-term healthy development [7][8]. - In July, three major green hydrogen and ammonia projects were successfully launched, demonstrating resilience and hope for the industry [7][8]. - These projects will validate the feasibility of large-scale renewable hydrogen production and its applications in a real commercial environment [8][9]. Group 3: Cost Reduction and Infrastructure Development - Large-scale procurement of electrolyzers will stimulate manufacturers to expand capacity and reduce costs, benefiting the entire industry [9]. - The construction of these projects will drive the development of renewable energy infrastructure and hydrogen storage and transportation facilities [10]. - The projects will also create diverse application scenarios for green hydrogen, contributing to decarbonization in traditional chemical industries [11]. Group 4: Market Demand and Future Prospects - The successful operation of these projects will significantly boost market demand for green hydrogen and ammonia, particularly in sectors that are hard to electrify [11][12]. - Recent developments in green methanol refueling at major ports indicate a growing market for these products [12]. - The combination of project cancellations and successful launches signals a critical phase for the hydrogen and ammonia industry, with potential for future breakthroughs in technology and business models [13].