专题：贵州茅台2025年半年报发布 营业收入增速同比下降近50%，净利润则下降了40%以上，归为白酒龙头老大，贵州茅台今年上半年的业绩，虽然依旧实现了稳定增长，但同过去相比，增 速已然出现乏力迹象。 8月12日晚间披露的半年报显示，今年上半年，贵州茅台的营业总收入、净利润，同比只分别增长了9.16%、8.89%，与去年同期17.7%、15.8%以上的增速相 比，今年上半年已经出现了显著下滑；营业成本则较上年同期增长了15%以上，毛利率则同比小幅下降。 股息率已经超过部分银行股。 对于上述情况，该公司解释称，这主要是销量增加及生产成本增加所致。而2025年主要目标，是实现营业总收入在上年的基础上增长9%左右，完成固定资 产投资47.11亿元。展望未来，虽面临不少难题，但有利因素强于不利因素，总体发展态势依然向好。 业内人士认为，茅台酒的消费需求下降，"囤酒"的金融属性也在下降，这可能会导致该公司未来的业绩增速进一步放缓。而贵州茅台也将从高成长属性，逐 步变成高股息属性，随着其他高股息个股上升，贵州茅台能否获得价值投资者青睐，需要继续观察。 上半年营收增速接近"腰斩" 半年报显示，今年上半年，贵州茅台实现营业总收 ...

营业收入增速同比下降近50%，净利润则下降了40%以上，归为白酒龙头老大，贵州茅台今年上半年的 业绩，虽然依旧实现了稳定增长，但同过去相比，增速已然出现乏力迹象。 对于上述情况，该公司解释称，这主要是销量增加及生产成本增加所致。而2025年主要目标，是实现营 业总收入在上年的基础上增长9%左右，完成固定资产投资47.11亿元。展望未来，虽面临不少难题，但 有利因素强于不利因素，总体发展态势依然向好。 从高成长到高股息？ 8月12日晚间披露的半年报显示，今年上半年，贵州茅台的营业总收入、净利润，同比只分别增长了 9.16%、8.89%，与去年同期17.7%、15.8%以上的增速相比，今年上半年已经出现了显著下滑；营业成 本则较上年同期增长了15%以上，毛利率则同比小幅下降。 业内人士认为，茅台酒的消费需求下降，"囤酒"的金融属性也在下降，这可能会导致该公司未来的业绩 增速进一步放缓。而贵州茅台也将从高成长属性，逐步变成高股息属性，随着其他高股息个股上升，贵 州茅台能否获得价值投资者青睐，需要继续观察。 上半年营收增速接近"腰斩" 半年报显示，今年上半年，贵州茅台实现营业总收入近911亿元，同比增长9.16%；净 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, boosted by the "anti - involution" concept and the positive news of Yaxia Hydropower Station, the pro - cyclical sectors collectively soared, and the index continued to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index achieved four consecutive weekly gains. The daily average trading volume of the two markets increased by 19.56% compared with last week, and the margin trading balance continued to rise above 1.9 trillion. Domestic hot money accelerated its inflow, showing signs of over - heating market sentiment in the short term. The commodity futures market mostly rose, and the bond market corrected significantly due to the impact of the equity market [1][10]. - As August approaches, a series of major events, such as the Politburo meeting's tone - setting, the results of the third round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, may trigger market fluctuations. Investors are advised to be cautious in the short term, control their positions, and avoid blind operations in the face of uncertainties. They can appropriately focus on growth sectors with relatively reasonable valuations, such as AI applications, cloud computing, and science and technology innovation chips. From a medium - term allocation perspective, high - dividend assets are still the preferred bottom - position assets, and hedging assets such as gold and treasury bonds can be combined to build a diversified portfolio to smooth out volatility risks and seize structural opportunities [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Industry Index - Coal, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, and construction sectors led the gains this week. The trading volume proportions of coal, building materials, construction, steel, and transportation sectors increased significantly compared with last week, while the trading activity of the comprehensive financial sector decreased significantly. The coal sector soared 8.00%, and its trading volume proportion reached a new high in the past four weeks at 1.16%. The pro - cyclical sectors strongly led the rise, while the trading activities of technology sectors such as electronics, computer, media, and communication cooled down, and their trading volume proportions reached new lows in the past four weeks. The bank sector, which was strong in early July, led the decline this week, and its trading volume proportion was at a new low in the past four weeks at 2.00% [10]. - The leverage factor and book - to - market ratio factor had the highest gains this week, while the residual volatility factor had a large decline. The IH contract remained at a premium, indicating that investors were more optimistic about large - cap stocks, and the discount of the IM contract continued to narrow. The average and median returns of neutral hedge funds this week were 0.10% and 0.17% respectively [10]. 3.1.2 Market Style - Affected by the "anti - involution" concept and the positive news of Yaxia Hydropower Station, all five CITIC style indices rose this week, with the cyclical style leading the gains. The growth sector rose 2.54% this week, and its trading volume proportion decreased to a new low in the past four weeks at 47.94%. The consumer style index rose 1.59%, and its trading volume proportion was basically the same as last week. The financial style index performed weakly, only rising slightly by 0.36%, and its trading volume proportion increased to 8.09%. The stable style index rose 1.74%, and its trading volume proportion increased significantly to a new high in the past four weeks at 5.43%. The cyclical style index rose 3.51%, and its trading volume proportion increased to a new high in the past four weeks at 25.81% [14]. - All major broad - based indices rose this week. The mid - cap stocks represented by the CSI 500 showed an obvious catch - up effect. Based on the CSI A - share index, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and CSI 2000 indices only rose 1.69% and 1.81% respectively, while the CSI 500 index rose 3.28% this week, and the trading volume proportions of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500 indices both increased to new highs in the past four weeks [14]. 3.2 Active Equity Funds 3.2.1 Top - Performing Funds in Different Theme Tracks This Week - The report divides active equity funds into single - track and double - track funds based on six sectors: TMT, financial real estate, consumption, medicine, manufacturing, and cyclical sectors. Single - track funds are those with a position in a certain sector greater than 70% for multiple consecutive periods, and double - track funds are those with positions in two sectors both greater than 30% for multiple consecutive periods [19]. 3.2.2 Top - Performing Funds in Different Strategy Categories - The report classifies funds into deep - undervalued, high - growth, high - quality, quality - growth, quality - undervalued, GARP, and balanced - cost - effective types based on investment styles and strategies, and lists the top - performing funds in each type this week [20]. 3.3 Index - Enhanced Funds 3.3.1 This Week's Excess Return Distribution of Index - Enhanced Funds - The average and median excess returns of CSI 300 index - enhanced funds were 0.05% and 0.03% respectively; those of CSI 500 index - enhanced funds were - 0.11% and - 0.13% respectively; those of CSI 1000 index - enhanced funds were 0.05% and 0.03% respectively; those of CSI 2000 index - enhanced funds were 0.24% and 0.36% respectively; those of CSI A500 index - enhanced funds were - 0.02% and - 0.07% respectively; those of ChiNext index - enhanced funds were - 0.29% and - 0.13% respectively; and those of STAR Market - ChiNext 50 index - enhanced funds were - 0.22% and - 0.05% respectively [24]. - The average and median absolute returns of neutral hedge funds were 0.10% and 0.17% respectively; those of quantitative long - only funds were 2.07% and 2.05% respectively [25]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Fund Selections - The report comprehensively screened the medium - and long - term bond - type fund pool and short - term bond - type fund pool based on indicators such as fund size, return - risk indicators, the latest fund size, Wind Fund secondary classification, three - year rolling return, and three - year maximum drawdown [41]. 3.5 This Week's Fund High - Frequency Position Detection - Active equity funds significantly increased their positions in the electronics (0.41%) and computer (0.27%) industries this week; they significantly reduced their positions in the power equipment and new energy (0.23%), basic chemicals (0.11%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (0.10%) industries. From a one - month perspective, the positions in the electronics (1.77%) and computer (1.06%) industries increased significantly, while the positions in the food and beverage (0.55%) and power equipment and new energy (0.62%) industries decreased significantly [3]. 3.6 This Week's US Dollar Bond Fund Weekly Tracking - Not provided in the content

今年以来，港股强势反攻，公募基金南下抢筹的趋势越来越明显。 Choice数据显示，沪港深基金对港股医疗保健板块的配置权重从一季度末的0.54%提升到0.88%，对港股金融板 块的配置权重从0.5%提升到0.67%。其中，石药集团是基金在二季度加仓股数最多的港股，全市场有101只基 金均进行了增持，其中包含梁福睿的长城医药精选、张金涛的嘉实港股优势、万建军的华安研究智选等多只知 名基金经理管理的产品。 三生制药、中国生物制药、信达生物、科伦博泰生物等港股创新药也获得了基金大力增持。比如，葛兰管理的 中欧医疗创新加仓了三生制药，郑澄然管理的广发成长新动能加仓了中国生物制药，谢治宇管理的兴全合宜加 仓了信达生物。值得一提的是，截至二季度末，内地公募基金对三生制药、信达生物、科伦博泰生物三只个股 的持股占流通股比已经超过10%。 最新披露的公募基金2025年二季报显示，全市场有近1800只基金在二季度提高了港股仓位，部分基金的增持幅 度超过50个百分点，以创新药为代表的高成长方向，和以银行股为代表的高股息方向，成为基金加仓港股的两 大"心头好"。 近1800只基金提高港股仓位 从基金二季报来看，可投资港股的港股通基金 ...

Group 1: Securities Industry - The domestic securities industry has experienced a significant workforce reduction, with 7,330 employees lost in the first half of 2025, representing a 2.2% decrease [1] - Major firms like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities have seen the largest reductions, with Guotai Junan losing 698 employees and Guotai Securities' investment banking division experiencing a 15.9% reduction [1] - The overall reduction in workforce may impact certain business scales but could also lead to resource concentration, while smaller firms are increasing their workforce, indicating a differentiated competitive strategy [1] Group 2: Fund Sales Industry - The cancellation of the public fundraising license for Minshang Fund Sales reflects a significant reshaping of the public fund sales industry, with many firms terminating sales partnerships [2] - The increase in license retention thresholds has led to a focus on business quality over quantity, resulting in a more optimized competitive landscape [2] - This self-elimination phase in the industry may lead to a more rational resource allocation, although it could also create short-term investor hesitation [2] Group 3: Insurance Capital - Insurance capital is expected to increase its allocation to equity assets in the second half of the year, focusing on high dividend and high growth stocks [3] - The low interest rate environment has made it necessary for insurance companies to shift towards equity investments to meet their cost requirements [3] - This trend is likely to support stock prices in high dividend and emerging sectors, injecting long-term capital into the market and enhancing investor confidence [3] Group 4: Jinlong Shares - The auction of 35 million shares of Jinlong Shares by its controlling shareholder failed due to a lack of bids, indicating insufficient market interest [4] - This event may raise concerns regarding the company's equity structure and could influence investor decisions [4] - The failure of such auctions may lead to discussions about corporate governance and equity stability, potentially affecting market sentiment [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the A-share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the year's high. The average daily trading volume increased by 22.36% week-on-week. The market risk appetite increased due to the easing geopolitical situation and the introduction of domestic growth-stabilizing policies [1][10]. - The financial technology sector led the rise this week, with both financial and growth styles performing well. The growth style index rose 5.21% this week, and its trading volume accounted for 54.20% of the total, reaching a four-week high [14]. - Looking ahead, the market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend. In July, the market is expected to see an orderly rotation of hot sectors. However, investors should remain cautious before the uncertainties of Sino-US tariff negotiations and the Fed's interest rate decision are eliminated [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Industry Index - The comprehensive finance, computer, comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and non-bank finance sectors led the gains this week. The trading volume of non-bank finance and bank sectors increased significantly compared to last week, while the trading activity of media, petroleum and petrochemical, medicine, food and beverage, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors decreased significantly [10]. - COMEX gold fell 2.94%, and the Chinese bond market maintained a narrow range of fluctuations. The basis of stock index futures contracts increased overall, and the net value of stock hedging strategies continued to decline. The average and median returns of neutral hedging funds this week were -0.10% and -0.03% respectively [1][10]. 3.1.2 Market Style - The financial technology sector led the rise this week, driving the market index higher. The growth style index rose 5.21% this week, and its trading volume accounted for 54.20% of the total, reaching a four-week high. The consumer style index rose 1.46%, and its trading volume accounted for 10.93% of the total, reaching a four-week low [14]. - The financial style index rose 3.41%, and its trading volume accounted for 10.07% of the total, reaching a four-week high. The stable style index rose only 0.78%, and its trading volume accounted for 3.45% of the total, reaching a four-week low [14]. - The cyclical style index rose 3.02%, and its trading volume accounted for 21.35% of the total, reaching a four-week low. The CSI 2000 index rose 5.55% this week, but its trading volume accounted for 28.89% of the total, reaching a four-week low [14]. 3.2 Active Equity Funds 3.2.1 Funds with Excellent Performance in Different Theme Tracks This Week - In the single-track fund category, the top five funds in terms of performance this week were Dongcai Value Qihang A, Taixin Development Theme, Chang'an Yusheng A, Huashang Upstream Industry A, and Huitianfu Consumption Upgrade A [20]. - In the double-track fund category, the top five funds in terms of performance this week were China Merchants Securities Technology Theme 6-Month Holding A, Yin Hua Multi-Power, Yongying High-End Equipment Smart Selection A, Huashang Computer Industry Quantitative A, and Hongtu Innovation Selection LOF [20]. 3.2.2 Funds with Excellent Performance in Different Strategy Categories - In the deep undervaluation strategy, the top three funds were Orient Internet Jia, Qianhai Kaiyuan Event-Driven A, and GF Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Value Growth A [2][22]. - In the high-growth strategy, the top three funds were China Europe Prosperity Outlook One-Year Holding A, Yuanxin Yongfeng High-End Manufacturing, and Huafu Guotai Min'an A [2][22]. - In the high-quality strategy, the top three funds were Furong Fujin A, Great Wall Jiuxin A, and E Fund New Normal [2][22]. - In the quality undervaluation strategy, the top three funds were Tongtai Financial Selection A, Qianhai Kaiyuan Shengxin A, and Wells Fargo Financial Real Estate Industry A [2][22]. - In the quality growth strategy, the top three funds were AVIC New Takeoff A, SDIC UBS New Energy A, and E Fund National Defense and Military Industry A [2][22]. - In the GARP strategy, the top three funds were Guoshou Anbao Target Strategy A, Guotai Dazhizao Two-Year Holding, and China AMC Panyi One-Year Fixed Open [2][22]. - In the balanced cost-performance strategy, the top three funds were Hongtu Innovation Selection LOF, Chang Sheng State-Owned Enterprise Reform Theme, and Taixin Development Theme [2][22]. 3.3 Index Enhanced Funds 3.3.1 This Week's Excess Return Distribution of Index Enhanced Funds - The average and median excess returns of CSI 300 index enhanced funds were 0.06% and 0.10% respectively [25]. - The average and median excess returns of CSI 500 index enhanced funds were -0.35% and -0.37% respectively [25]. - The average and median excess returns of CSI 1000 index enhanced funds were -0.20% and -0.22% respectively [25]. - The average and median excess returns of CSI 2000 index enhanced funds were -0.04% and -0.06% respectively [25]. - The average and median excess returns of CSI A500 index enhanced funds were 0.11% and 0.13% respectively [25]. - The average and median excess returns of ChiNext index enhanced funds were -0.20% and -0.17% respectively [25]. - The average and median excess returns of STAR Market and ChiNext 50 index enhanced funds were -0.11% and -0.14% respectively [26]. 3.4 This Issue's Bond Fund Selections - The report screened out the medium- and long-term bond fund pool and the short-term bond fund pool based on indicators such as fund size, performance risk indicators, the latest fund size, Wind Fund secondary classification, three-year rolling returns, and three-year maximum drawdowns [42]. 3.5 This Week's High-Frequency Fund Position Detection - Active equity funds significantly increased their positions in the petroleum and petrochemical (0.18%), coal (0.09%), and comprehensive (0.08%) industries this week; they significantly reduced their positions in the machinery (0.19%), automobile (0.13%), and commercial and retail (0.08%) industries [3]. - From a one-month perspective, the position of the pharmaceutical industry increased significantly by 0.71%, while the positions of the machinery and automobile industries decreased significantly by 0.64% and 0.65% respectively [3]. 3.6 This Week's Weekly Tracking of US Dollar Bond Funds - Not provided in the content

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][70]. Core Insights - The oil and gas sector is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity, while the refining and trading sector is under pressure but anticipated to improve [1][26]. - Global oil demand continues to rise post-pandemic, with 2024 demand projected at 105.53 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 2.18% [27]. - The report highlights that the U.S. inflation rate has been decreasing, which indirectly supports commodity demand, including oil [3][18]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - In 2024, Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $69.19 and $91.17 per barrel, with an annual average of $79.61, reflecting a 2.87% year-on-year decline [4][20]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a slight recovery in Brent prices, averaging $75 per barrel, up 1.3% from the previous quarter [20][25]. OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has been adjusting production levels to stabilize oil prices, with a decision to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until March 2025 [5][24]. - The report notes that non-OPEC supply, particularly from the U.S., continues to grow, impacting global oil prices [5][24]. Oil and Gas Exploration Sector - The A-share oil and gas exploration sector is projected to perform well, with 2024 revenue expected to reach 425.32 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.22%, but net profit is expected to rise by 8.27% to 138.86 billion yuan [6][31]. - China's crude oil production is forecasted to increase by 1.85% in 2024, reaching 213 million tons [6][32]. Refining and Trading Sector - The refining and trading sector is facing challenges, with revenues expected to decline by 3.29% in 2024, and net profits down by 5.06% [7][37]. - The report attributes this decline to global trade tensions and falling oil prices, which have pressured profit margins [8][40]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high dividends and growth potential, recommending China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) as key investment targets [9][53]. - Dividend payout ratios for major companies are highlighted, with CNOOC at 44.27% and CNPC at 52.24% for 2024 [9][53].

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index has grown significantly over 15 years, from a market cap of 0.36 trillion yuan to 5.64 trillion yuan, representing over 15 times growth [5][9] - The ChiNext Index has accumulated a total increase of 99.3% since its launch, outperforming other indices like the CSI 300 and Wind All A [5][6] - The index is recognized as a leading indicator during bull markets, often associated with strong returns for investors [5][6] Group 2 - In 2024, companies within the ChiNext Index reported total revenues of 1.7 trillion yuan and net profits of approximately 180 billion yuan, indicating growth in both revenue and profit [9] - Nearly 70% of the sample companies achieved positive revenue growth, and over 40% saw revenue and net profit growth exceeding 10% [9][10] - The index's sample companies have shown a 12% increase in gross profit and a 16% increase in cash flow year-on-year [9] Group 3 - The ChiNext Index has undergone 53 adjustments since its inception, allowing it to adapt to changing market themes and maintain relevance [11] - The top three sectors by weight in the index currently include power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, aligning with national development strategies [13] Group 4 - The index focuses on companies that embody innovation and high growth, with significant representation from sectors like semiconductors, AI, and renewable energy [15] - R&D investment among sample companies reached 88 billion yuan in 2024, with over 20% of companies investing more than 15% of their revenue in R&D [15] Group 5 - Cash dividends from the ChiNext Index have increased from 8.69 billion yuan in 2015 to 81.23 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 8.35 times [17] - The dividend payout ratio has risen from 25% to 45.95%, indicating improved financial health among companies in the index [17] Group 6 - As of May 30, 2025, there are 83 public index funds tracking the ChiNext Index, with a total scale exceeding 140 billion yuan, providing diverse investment options [20] - The ChiNext Index has gained international attention, with ETFs linked to it being launched in various countries, including Brazil [22] Group 7 - The ChiNext Index will implement significant changes to its compilation method, including an ESG negative screening mechanism and a weight cap for individual stocks, effective June 16, 2025 [24][25] - These changes aim to enhance the index's representativeness, investability, and risk control capabilities [26]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：KAIZEN投资之道 2. 政策红利与资金增持 （1）监管驱动：新"国九条"明确强化分红约束，将分红与中国特色估值体系挂钩，推动银行股纳 入主流指数。财政部2025年3月向四大行注资5000亿元补充核心资本，直接增强分红可持续性。 （2）资金流向：险资大幅增持银行股，2025年一季度银行板块占险资持仓比例达27.2%（2018年 以来新高），半数举牌涉及农行、邮储银行等。银行ETF规模较年初增长35%，机构持仓占比升 至62%。 来源：雪球 在当前复杂多变的股票市场中，投资者们不断寻找着既能抵御风险又能捕捉增长机遇的投资标 的。高分红银行股以其稳定的盈利能力和丰厚的股息回报，成为稳健投资者眼中的"避风港"；而 港股成长型科技股则凭借其创新活力和巨大的增长潜力，吸引着追求高收益的投资者的目光。两 者在市场中各领风骚，究竟哪个更适合当下市场环境，各自的核心竞争力和护城河又是什么，是 否仍具有投资价值，这些问题都值得我们深入探讨和分析，以下综合分析： 一、当前市场环境与两类资产概况 1.在利率持续下行与政策环境变化的市场格局 ...

大众品首选新消费、高成长。 白酒：周期寻底，配置价值凸显 。我们延续前期观点，行业 2025Q2 产业景气度环比角度仍在寻底，价 格端压力大于量的压力，从库存周期视角看，白酒产业或完全进入到库存周期后半段，在此维度下，大部 分企业短期业绩表现愈发赖于核心市场的市占率提升，且愈发依赖于腰部及以下单品驱动，份额逻辑演绎 到最后阶段。我们一直强调，白酒商品属性正在加速重塑，其快消品属性强化，能够提前适应快消品运作 逻辑的企业竞争优势会愈发凸显。股价层面，我们认为白酒板块配置价值凸显： 1 ）分红层面有潜力：当 下头部企业股息率接近或大于 3% ； 2 ）动态估值基本回落至历史区间低位； 3 ）后续具备潜在催化因 素，例如房价等资产价格边际企稳，内需政策等； 4 ）选股层面，首选具备份额逻辑的企业。 风险因素：食品安全、产业政策调整等。 报告导读： 新消费趋势下，渠道、品类创新共振，带动大众品业绩弹性释放；白酒产业 周期仍在寻底，但配置价值凸显。 投资建议：大众品首选新消费、高成长，白酒可以更积极。 新消费本质是结构性红利，渠道、品类共振。当下人口周期见顶，伴随零售效率持续优化及年轻群体逐步 创收，消费呈现明显的新渠 ...