Core Viewpoint - The global smoking rate has significantly decreased from 22.3% to 16.4% between 2007 and 2023, marking a 26% relative decline, yet over 7 million people still die annually from tobacco-related diseases [3][4]. Group 1: Global Tobacco Control Progress - The World Health Organization's MPOWER measures have seen substantial adoption, with the number of countries implementing at least one measure increasing from 44 in 2008 to 155 in 2024, covering over 6.1 billion people [3]. - Graphic health warnings on cigarette packaging have made notable progress, with 56% of countries implementing such warnings by 2024, covering approximately 5 billion people, or 62% of the global population [4]. - The report emphasizes the need to expand graphic warnings to all tobacco products and to enforce plain packaging regulations to combat misleading marketing [4]. Group 2: Challenges in Tobacco Control - The emergence of electronic cigarettes and innovative marketing strategies by the tobacco industry pose new challenges for tobacco control efforts [5][6]. - In 2023, tobacco use resulted in approximately 7.36 million deaths globally, with a significant portion occurring in low- and middle-income countries [5]. - Over 30 million adolescents aged 13-15 are reported to be using tobacco products, with around 12 million using e-cigarettes in countries where surveys were conducted [5]. Group 3: China's Tobacco Control Efforts - China's smoking rate has decreased to 23.2% in 2024, down 0.9 percentage points from 2022, reflecting steady progress in tobacco control [7]. - The implementation of smoke-free regulations in 254 cities has protected 229 million people from secondhand smoke, with the exposure rate dropping from 76.3% in 2015 to 46.5% in 2024 [7][8]. - Public support for smoke-free policies has reached a historical high, with over 90% of the population favoring legislation to ban smoking in indoor public spaces [8]. Group 4: Economic Impact of Tobacco Use - Tobacco-related diseases impose a significant economic burden, with costs reaching 15.2 trillion yuan in 2018, surpassing the 1.16 trillion yuan in tobacco tax revenue [9]. - Enhancing tobacco tax rates and protecting the public from secondhand smoke could significantly advance global tobacco control efforts [9]. Group 5: Youth Engagement in Tobacco Control - Youth are increasingly recognized as vital agents of change in tobacco control, with innovative initiatives being implemented in schools to raise awareness about tobacco hazards [10][12]. - Creative approaches such as debates, theme speeches, and social media campaigns are effectively promoting smoke-free culture among young people [12].

在收涨的七只成分股里，嘉能可（GLN）涨0.52%表现第六，金田公司（GFI）涨1.29%，哈莫尼黄金 （HAR）涨1.86%，英美烟草（BTI）涨2.12%，安格鲁阿山帝黄金（ANG）涨4.3%，沙索（SOL）涨 10.89%。 成分股Valterra铂业（VAL.SJ）收跌5.86%、南非Woolworth控股（WHL）跌5.51%、必得维斯特集团 （BVT）跌4.61%、因帕拉白金控股（IMP）跌4.51%领跌。 周五（6月13日），南非富时/JSE非洲领先40可交易指数收跌1.64%，报87865.89点，脱离6月12日所创 收盘历史最高位89326.22点，逼近6月3日收盘位87181.74点，本周乐基下跌0.84%。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 工业盈利：外需敞口与弹性分析 ❖ 核心观点 4 月以来，外部环境出现急剧变化。4 月政治局会议强调，"着力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期"。此处，稳企业的内涵，我们理解或包括稳定企业盈利。 因而，有必要进一步研究外部环境变化对企业盈利的影响幅度以及需要的政策 对冲力度。简言之，工业企业（与出口相关）的外需敞口，内外需盈利弹性。 我们的估算表明，工业部门营收端的外需敞口或在 16.2%左右。从两个路径分 析出口变动对企业盈利影响，路径一为影响工业企业营收与利润率。路径二为 影响全社会总产出进而影响工业企业盈利。1 个百分点的出口变动，工业盈利 增速或变化 0.41%至 0.43%。 内需弹性方面，类似的分析估算表明，最终消费增速变化 1 个百分点，工业盈 利增速或变化 0.54%。资本形成增速变化 1 个百分点，工业盈利增速或变化 0.7%。换言之，1 个百分点的出口变动，需要的对冲力度可能是 0.76%的最终 消费的增速变化或 0.59%的资本形成的增速变化。从 4 月政治局会议来看，最 终消费的政策加码方向为"大力发展服务消费，尽快清理消费领域限制性措施， 设立服务消 ...