最近，美国斩杀线这个话题在简中社交媒体上火了，一些网民用它描述那些看似体面的美国中产阶级，随时可能因一次意外或风险跌入深渊。 看着网上七嘴八舌的讨论，我却想起了数月前在洛杉矶住酒店的经历，那个深夜的遭遇，让我看到了美国社会一条更残酷的实物红线。 去年10月中旬，抵达洛杉矶前几天，我们住在圣莫尼卡海滩附近的一家连锁五星酒店，价格大概是含税400美元左右。 | 在线付 | ¥7997.56 | | --- | --- | | 10-18 | ¥2665.89 | | 10-19 3份早餐/间 | ¥2665.89 | | 10-20 3份早餐/间 | ¥2665.89 | | 10-21 3份早餐/间 | | | 支付优惠 | -¥0.11 | | 口今他信甜 ¥112/11 | | 虽然酒店距离海滩足足有1公里，但在今天通货膨胀极其严重的洛杉矶，已经属于性价比比较合适的酒店。 第一天晚上，我被时差折磨得毫无睡意，凌晨两点，怕打扰老婆孩子休息，便拎着电脑独自下楼去大堂写稿。电梯门打开的一瞬间，我立刻感觉到气氛有 些诡异，空气里没有五星级酒店惯用的香氛，反倒飘着一股焦糖烧焦的甜腻味道。 大堂吧角落里蜷缩着几个黑影， ...

记者 辛圆 其次是城乡收入差距。蔡昉表示，该差距自2008年起快速缩小，这得益于脱贫攻坚和各项惠农政策。但目前城乡收入比仍在2.3—2.4左右，在国际上仍属较 高水平。研究表明，城乡收入比降至2以下是相对合理的标准。 再次是收入分配结构。"我们强调要提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重、提高居民收入在国民总收入中的比重。自2008、2009年以来，这两个比重均有所回 升，但尚未恢复到九十年代初期的历史较好水平，也普遍低于多数OECD国家。这说明我们仍有提升潜力，需进一步优化分配结构。"蔡昉说。 "国际经验表明，从中等收入向高收入阶段迈进时，消费率需显著提升约20个百分点。我国消费率目前约为39%，与更高发展阶段的要求存在差距。因此， 提高收入水平、改善收入分配，是突破制约、支撑未来经济发展的关键。"他说。 蔡昉提到，要理解当前中国收入分配状况与现代化目标之间的距离，可以从三个关键指标入手。 首先看总体收入差距。蔡昉表示，基尼系数是衡量收入差距的常用指标，数值在0到1之间，越高代表差距越大。一般认为，0.4是收入分配相对合理的阈 值。因此，应设定明确的收入分配改善目标：争取在"十五五"期间显著缩小差距，到2035年努 ...

城乡收入差距同样是一种发展现象。无论是农业经济还是以农业占主导的农村经济，在工业化和城镇化 过程中必然经历生产要素向外转移的过程，这也是资源重新配置的过程，最集中地表现为剩余劳动力的 转移，由此农业劳动生产率和国民经济整体劳动生产率同时得以提高。农业经营规模扩大、农业机械化 水平提高和剩余劳动力充分转移，可能由于各种因素受到阻碍，或者产生不协调现象，造成农业劳动生 产率提高速度滞后于非农产业的情形，导致务农收益偏低，最终表现为城乡收入差距扩大。例如，2024 年占劳动力总数22.2%的农业劳动力，仅生产了占GDP比重6.8%的农业增加值，这展示了农业劳动生产 率偏低的事实，由此可以理解为什么务农收入无法实现同非农产业收入的同步提高。同年在农户可支配 收入中，来自务农等家庭经营收入的比重仅为33.9%，显著低于工资性收入的比重42.4%。 基尼系数是一个综合性的指标，主要由农村收入差距、城镇收入差距和城乡之间收入差距三部分构成， 在统计意义上相对完整地反映全社会的收入分配状况。长期以来，城乡收入比率是整体收入差距的一个 主要的贡献因素。在21世纪第一个十年末收入差距达到最高点之前，城乡收入比率的变化同基尼系数保 ...

Core Insights - The core argument is that in China's new development stage, the main constraint on economic growth has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, with resident consumption becoming the decisive driving force for growth [1][2]. Demand-Side Constraints - Demand-side constraints, particularly in resident consumption, have become the primary limitation on China's economic growth, influenced by factors such as declining manufacturing advantages, the transition to high-quality development, and demographic changes like population decline and aging [2][3]. - The transition from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth is essential as China faces challenges from a decreasing population and slower income growth, which significantly suppresses resident consumption [2][5]. Economic Growth Dynamics - The relationship between resident consumption rates and economic growth is critical; higher consumption rates correlate with lower probabilities of significant economic slowdown, highlighting the importance of maintaining consumption at levels consistent with development stages to avoid the middle-income trap [3][4]. Barriers to Consumption Growth - Several barriers must be overcome to enhance resident consumption, including the long-term trend of slowing GDP and disposable income growth, which is exacerbated by demographic shifts and the transition to a higher economic development stage [5][6]. - The existing income distribution gap, characterized by a high Gini coefficient, limits overall consumption demand as lower-income households tend to have a higher marginal propensity to consume [6][7]. - Rapid aging and the phenomenon of "getting old before getting rich" further complicate consumption dynamics, as older populations typically have lower consumption rates and face multiple financial burdens [7][8]. Policy Recommendations - To foster necessary changes in consumption dynamics, a shift in mindset and policy is required, focusing on long-term human capital development and job creation to support household income and consumption [8][9]. - Improving income distribution through effective tax and transfer systems is crucial, as current redistributive measures in China are significantly lower than those in many OECD countries, indicating substantial potential for improvement [9][10]. - Expanding the provision of public goods and services is essential, as increased government spending on social services can enhance overall living standards and indirectly support consumption growth [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The low consumption rate in China is a multifaceted issue, primarily driven by the low share of household income in the national income distribution, rather than just short-term consumption policies or immediate adjustments to the Gini coefficient [2][4][9]. Group 1: Current Consumption Rate Situation - In 2020, China's household consumption rate was 38.8%, significantly lower than countries with similar GDP per capita, such as Argentina (63%), Poland (53.6%), and the United States (68%) [4][6]. - The final consumption expenditure accounted for 54.3% of GDP in China, while developed countries typically see this figure around 80% [6]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Low Consumption - The low consumption rate does not equate to insufficient consumption, as China's average annual growth rate of household consumption from 2000 to 2019 was 8.24%, outperforming the U.S. (2.36%) and the Eurozone (1.09%) [7]. - The government consumption in China is relatively high, while household consumption remains low, with service consumption only around 25%, indicating a significant gap compared to other countries [7][8]. - The distribution of national income shows that the household sector accounts for 60.6% of the initial distribution, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the world average, while the corporate sector is higher than average [8]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improving Consumption - To address the low consumption rate, the government should transition from an investment-oriented to a service-oriented role, enhancing social security systems and providing affordable housing to increase consumer funds [9]. - There is a need for a combination of short-term stimulus and structural reforms to address both immediate consumption gaps and long-term consumption issues [12][13]. - The estimated average consumption gap from 2020 to 2024 is around 6% annually, equating to approximately 2.9 trillion yuan, necessitating targeted policies to fill this gap [13].

Group 1: Economic Sentiment - A significant 76.3% of respondents in a survey believe that "making money is becoming increasingly difficult," which is an increase of 8.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The growth rate of residents' income has noticeably slowed, with the per capita disposable income in Q1 2025 being 11,782 yuan, reflecting a real growth of only 3.2% after adjusting for price factors [3] - The Gini coefficient stands at 0.468, indicating a substantial disparity in wealth distribution, with lower-income individuals experiencing slow or even declining income growth [3] Group 2: Financial Industry - The financial sector is currently the most profitable, with the six major state-owned banks reporting a combined net profit of 682.524 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, averaging about 3.77 billion yuan per day [5] - The securities industry achieved a total operating revenue of approximately 251.9 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 31%, and a net profit of 104 billion yuan, up 65% [5] - The insurance industry reported premium income of 3.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [5] Group 3: Monopoly Industries - Monopoly industries such as oil, telecommunications, tobacco, and electricity have fewer competitors, making it easier for these companies to generate profits [6] - The three major oil companies in China—PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC—collectively achieved a net profit of 175.009 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [8] - The domestic tobacco industry reported a total tax and profit amount of approximately 624.24 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of about 7.58% [8] Group 4: Real Estate Industry - Despite a decline in both sales volume and area in the real estate sector during the first half of 2025, it remains a primary avenue for wealth accumulation [10] - Homebuyers often exhaust their savings and incur bank loans to purchase properties, leading to significant capital inflow into real estate companies [10] - The real estate sector has historically produced some of the wealthiest individuals in China, indicating its role in wealth concentration [10] Group 5: Wealth Distribution Insights - The primary sectors where wealth is flowing include the financial industry, monopoly industries, and real estate, as highlighted by entrepreneur Cao Dewang [12] - These sectors benefit from either monopolistic conditions or supportive government policies that stimulate market activity, contributing to the perception that earning money is increasingly challenging for the average resident [12]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, which is seen as a consensus decision among policymakers [2][10] - Current economic indicators suggest strong growth, with a GDP growth rate of 3.3% for the second quarter and retail sales up 6% year-over-year [6][15] - There are mixed signals regarding inflation, with current rates around 2.9%, which is above the Fed's target of 2% [5][10] Monetary Policy - The Fed's approach to monetary policy is described as cautious and data-dependent, with a focus on balancing growth and inflation [10][12] - There is a debate among Fed officials regarding the appropriate level of interest rate cuts, with some advocating for more aggressive cuts [10][11] - The Phillips Curve is mentioned as a flawed model for understanding the relationship between unemployment and inflation, suggesting a need for diverse economic models [9][10] Income Inequality - The discussion highlights a widening gap between the wealthy and low-income consumers, with concerns about the distribution of economic growth [13][14] - Despite income inequality, there has been notable growth in retail sales, indicating optimism among lower-income consumers [15]

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes that achieving national wealth is challenging and should not be defined by distant ideals or slogans, as this leads to unrealistic expectations and potential failures in policy implementation [2] - Lin Yifu predicts that by 2050, China's per capita GDP will reach 50% of the current level of the United States, indicating a need for China to focus on improving its economic conditions rather than immediately pursuing common prosperity [2][4] - The article highlights that even if Lin's goal is achieved, the concept of wealth remains distant, as per capita GDP does not reflect actual income levels for residents, with China's social security spending significantly lower than that of Nordic countries [4] Group 2 - Wang Xiaolu, deputy director of the National Economic Research Institute, argues that the focus should be on expanding the economic "cake" before addressing income distribution and public service improvements for low-income and vulnerable groups [6] - The article questions the notion that income disparity is solely a result of market economy dynamics, suggesting that all economic systems can experience polarization, and that competition is essential for efficiency [7] - The discussion includes the idea that progressive taxation could balance income distribution without undermining market principles, emphasizing the importance of effective governance in utilizing tax revenues for public welfare [8]