Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019111 [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - High-sulfur fuel oil's strong performance continues, and in the short term, prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. The number of global CDU maintenance has increased slightly. Although Middle Eastern exports continue to rise, they have not flowed into Singapore and Malaysia in the short term, and Singapore's imports have not significantly increased. Geopolitical conflicts in Iran remain uncertain, causing market concerns about unexpected supply disruptions. High-sulfur prices will remain high unless there is a significant increase in Singapore's imports [4]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, despite the复产 of the Al Zour refinery and the gradual increase in Japanese exports, there are still some positive factors. Brazilian exports have declined due to refinery maintenance, and European refineries are expected to process more heavy components, limiting low-sulfur exports. In the short term, low-sulfur fuel oil prices have support and are unlikely to weaken significantly [4]. - Valuation: FU is expected to range from 2,850 to 2,950, and LU from 3,200 to 3,400 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices are in a high-volatility environment, and there is potential for further price increases. 2) Inter-period: The contango structure of FU and LU has reversed to backwardation and may return to contango after geopolitical issues subside. 3) Inter-variety: The crack spreads of FU and LU have rebounded slightly, and the LU-FU spread will continue to narrow in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall, independent, and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking, FCC, coking, and CDU units from 2018 - 2026 are provided, showing the trends and fluctuations in refinery maintenance [8][9][12]. - **Domestic Refinery Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on China's fuel oil production, low-sulfur fuel oil production, and domestic fuel oil commodity volume from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the production capacity and market supply of domestic refineries [14]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: The report shows data on China's marine fuel oil consumption, Singapore's fuel oil sales, and China's fuel oil apparent consumption from 2018 - 2025, reflecting the demand situation in the fuel oil market [18]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the spot inventory of fuel oil in Singapore, European ARA, Fujairah, and the United States from 2018 - 2026 are presented, showing the inventory levels and trends in different regions [21][22]. 3.4 Price and Spreads - **Spot FOB Prices in Asia-Pacific**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujairah from 2018 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the price trends in the Asia-Pacific fuel oil market [27][29]. - **Spot FOB Prices in Europe**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2026 are presented, showing the price trends in the European fuel oil market [31]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Prices in the United States**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high-sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the price trends in the US fuel oil market [32]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the prices of high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2026, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026, are presented, showing the price trends in the paper and derivative markets [33][36][39]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: Data on the high-low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the spread relationships in the fuel oil spot market [41][43]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: Data on the crack spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 are presented, showing the crack spread relationships in the global fuel oil market [44]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: Data on the month spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the month spread relationships in the global fuel oil paper market [47]. 3.5 Imports and Exports - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on China's fuel oil import and export volumes from 2018 - 2025 are presented, showing the domestic fuel oil import and export situation [51][52]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export situation [54][56]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export situation [59][60]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Spreads - **Review and Logic**: The report reviews the significant increase in Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices during the week, with the Zhoushan market moving in tandem. In terms of spreads, the narrowing of the high-sulfur domestic and foreign spot price spreads and the widening of the LU domestic and foreign price spreads are analyzed [64]. - **Spot Market Spreads**: Data on the domestic and foreign spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil spot prices from 2021 - 2026 are presented, showing the spread trends in the spot market [68][69]. - **Futures Market Spreads**: Data on the domestic and foreign spreads of FU and LU futures prices from 2021 - 2026 are presented, showing the spread trends in the futures market [71][73]. 3.7 FU and LU Positions, Volumes, and Warehouse Receipts - **Positions and Volumes**: Data on the trading volumes and positions of FU and LU futures contracts from 2020 - 2026 are presented, showing the trading activity and market participation in the fuel oil futures market [76][78][80]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the inventory and delivery pressure in the fuel oil futures market [87][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price fluctuations of domestic and international fuel oils have significantly increased recently, with the up - and - down trends reversing frequently. For high - sulfur fuel oil, stable Middle - East exports and the off - season of marine fuel will put downward pressure on prices. However, due to the un - recovered heavy - oil supply in Venezuela and potential geopolitical conflicts in Iran, the high - sulfur market remains uncertain, and prices are unlikely to decline in a trending manner in the short term. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the Al Zour refinery will gradually resume production, there are still upward drivers. Brazilian exports are showing a decline, and the Dangote refinery's maintenance will end in January, leading to reduced exports. Additionally, the geopolitical issues in Venezuela will bring risk premiums. In the short term, domestic and international low - sulfur prices will remain strong. But the stronger domestic market than the overseas market will widen the internal - external price spread, attracting domestic traders to import for profit, which will have a negative impact on domestic prices [4]. - The valuation of FU is 2400 - 2550, and LU is 2900 - 3150. Unilaterally, fuel oil prices have entered a high - volatility environment in the short term, and the direction of price movement is unclear. In terms of inter - period spreads, the monthly spread structures of FU and LU have returned to backwardation and may return to contango after geopolitical issues cool down. For inter - variety spreads, the short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU have reached low levels, and the LU - FU spread will enter a volatile phase in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025, showing the trends in refinery operations [8]. - It also shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2026, reflecting the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [11][13][15][16]. - Data on the monthly production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil (including total and low - sulfur fuel oil) from 2018 - 2025 are provided, indicating the domestic supply situation [20][21]. Demand - The report provides monthly data on the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025, the sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, showing the demand situation at home and abroad [25]. Inventory - It presents data on the spot inventory of global fuel oil, including the heavy - oil inventory in Singapore from 2018 - 2026, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA from 2018 - 2026, the heavy - distillate inventory in Fujairah from 2018 - 2026, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2026 [29][31][32]. Price and Spread - **Regional Spot FOB Prices**: The report shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (Singapore, Fujairah, Mediterranean, etc.), Europe (North - West Europe, US Gulf), and the US from 2018 - 2026 [37][39][42][46]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It includes the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in North - West Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026 [49][50][52]. - **Spot Spreads**: The report presents data on the viscosity spread and high - low - sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2026 [58][59]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and North - West Europe from 2019 - 2026 [61][62][63]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and North - West Europe from 2022 - 2026 are provided [65]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [70][72]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as China, the Middle East, the US, and Singapore from 2018 - 2026 are shown [74]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as Singapore, China, the US, and the Middle East from 2018 - 2026 are presented [76]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: The weekly Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices entered a volatile phase, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. The impact of geopolitical issues on overseas spot prices gradually subsided, and the spread between domestic futures prices and overseas spot prices gradually narrowed as the number of warehouse receipts decreased [79]. - **Logic**: In the short term, due to the cooling of geopolitical events, the strength of the overseas spot market has declined. At the same time, the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU has started to decrease. It is expected that the spreads between FU, LU, and the Singapore market will increase in the short term [79]. - **Internal - External Spreads in the Spot and Futures Markets**: The report shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets from 2021 - 2026 [83][84][85]. - **Changes in FU and LU Positions and Trading Volumes**: Data on the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2026 are provided [91][97][100]. - **Changes in FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Numbers**: The changes in the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 are presented [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline at the beginning of the week, stabilized, and rebounded slightly near the weekend. For high - sulfur fuel oil, Middle - East exports continued to surge, with most of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia and Iran. Considering the upcoming end of Saudi Arabia's major maintenance, the short - term weakness of high - sulfur fuel oil may not be reversed. However, Russian exports have started to decline, and a large amount of spot has been piled up in floating storage near Russia, which will support high - sulfur fuel oil prices. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the number of spot goods flowing to the Asia - Pacific region has decreased due to refinery maintenance in Brazil and European refineries' deep - processing of heavy components to increase gasoline and diesel production. But Brazilian and Kuwaiti refineries are expected to resume operations next month, which will increase supply and put pressure on prices. The spot market's transaction premium has declined, and prices may fall further as supply recovery is reflected in shipping data. - Valuation: FU is estimated to be in the range of 2400 - 2500, and LU is estimated to be in the range of 3000 - 3250. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices will remain weak in the short term. 2) Inter - period: The contango structure of FU and LU spreads is difficult to reverse under the condition of loose supply. 3) Inter - variety: The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU have reached a low level; the LU - FU spread will gradually decline in the short term. [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [9][11][13][14] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It shows the monthly production and commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, including low - sulfur fuel oil production, but no specific analysis is provided. [18][19] Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [23] Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, ARA in Europe, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [27][29][30] Price and Spreads - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, and 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [35][36][37][39][42] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in New York Harbor, and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [40][44][45] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [47][48][51][52][53][55] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It shows the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [57] - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [59][60][61] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: It shows the month spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [63] Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [68][70] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions such as China, the Middle East, and the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [72] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions such as Singapore, China, and the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [74] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review and Logic**: This week, Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the Zhoushan market followed the same trend. The internal - external spreads began to shrink from the previous high. For FU, the short - position holdings still exceeded the long - position holdings, causing FU to underperform the external spot market, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, both long and short positions were gradually closing, the number of warehouse receipts remained stable after the delivery, and a large amount of low - sulfur components were expected to enter Zhoushan at the end of the month, so the internal - external spread may continue to narrow in the short term. [77] - **Internal - External Spreads Data**: It provides the internal - external spreads data of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil spot, as well as the spreads between FU and LU futures contracts and Singapore prices from November 24 - 28, 2025. [78] - **Spot Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil spot, and the spread between LU and Singapore from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [81][82][84] - **Futures Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads between FU and LU futures contracts and Singapore prices from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [85][86][87] - **FU and LU Position and Volume Changes**: It shows the trading volume and position changes of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [89][90][91][93][95][96] - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: It shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [99][100]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, fuel oil prices rose significantly, with the price center gradually reaching a two - month high. For high - sulfur fuel oil, market transactions improved slightly, the premium increased, Middle East shipments remained high, but Russian exports continued to decline. Due to recent attacks and sanctions, nearly one - third of Russian refinery capacity was offline, so supply factors still supported high - sulfur fuel oil. If Russian exports continue to face obstacles, high - sulfur fuel oil valuations may continue to rise. For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is no obvious supply gap in the Asia - Pacific region, and spot shipments are normal. The August Singapore bunker sales data was good, providing some support on the demand side. On the domestic market, the quota issue has been fully priced in by the market, but inventory continued to accumulate in the Zhoushan area, and there were still warehouse receipts on the futures market. In the short term, the price may be relatively weaker than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. - Valuation: FU is estimated to be in the range of 2700 - 3000, and LU is estimated to be in the range of 3400 - 3650. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU will continue to be strong in the short term, and LU will mainly follow the upward trend. 2) Inter - period: FU and LU will maintain the current structure. 3) Inter - variety: FU cracking will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread may still contract slightly in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU devices, hydrocracking devices, FCC devices, and coking devices over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [9][11][13][14] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: It shows the monthly production of fuel oil in China, the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries, and the monthly domestic commercial volume of fuel oil over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [20] 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [23] 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [26][28][29] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in north - western Europe, and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [34][35][36][38][39][41] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in north - western Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil prices in the USAC over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [43][44] - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil prices in the USAC over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [44] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, Singapore 380 bunker swaps, and domestic futures contracts (FU and LU) over different time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [47][48][51] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It shows the Singapore high - low sulfur spread, Singapore viscosity spread, and other spreads over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [57][58][59] - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [62][63][64] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [66] 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [71][73] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific analysis is provided. [75] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific analysis is provided. [77] 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices rose significantly, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, domestic FU and LU were relatively stronger than the international market, and the premium continued to recover. - **Logic**: This week, spot prices at home and abroad rebounded significantly. On the domestic market, FU started to rebound from the bottom, and the internal - external spread continued to repair. The same situation occurred for LU. Due to the relatively small new batch of quotas, the domestic LU maintained a stable spread with the international spot market. [80] - **Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and domestic futures contracts (FU and LU) against Singapore over different dates, but no specific analysis is provided. [81] 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - It shows the trading volumes and open interest of fuel oil main - continuous contracts, fuel oil continuous contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contracts, and related sub - contracts over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [94][96][99] 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - It shows the changes in the number of FU and LU warehouse receipts over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [105][106]

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: September 21, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil still fluctuated, but the amplitude significantly narrowed. For high-sulfur fuel oil, Middle East exports remained high, and the spot market transaction premium in the Asia-Pacific region continued to be below 0. There is a possibility of shipments from Northwest Europe to Asia, making it difficult for the Asia-Pacific low-sulfur market price to improve. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strength of the Asia-Pacific low-sulfur price has basically disappeared. The shutdown of downstream facilities in Nigeria may continue to provide support in the future, but due to high port inventories and the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets, the domestic LU futures price is unlikely to turn strongly bullish. - The estimated value range is 2650 - 2900 for FU and 3300 - 3500 for LU. - Strategies include: 1) Unilateral: The bottom support of FU is emerging, while LU is weakening marginally. 2) Inter - period: FU and LU will maintain their current structures. 3) Inter - commodity: The cracking spread of FU will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread may still contract slightly in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries are presented, covering the period from 2016 - 2025. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global FCC, CDU, hydrocracking, and coking units are provided, spanning from 2018 - 2025. [13][14][15] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China are shown, covering 2018 - 2025. [18] 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [22] 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US are provided, covering 2018 - 2025. [25][26][28] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and other regions are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [32][34][36] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, etc. are provided, covering 2018 - 2025. [38][39][41] - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [44][45] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of LU and FU futures contracts, are provided, covering 2024 - 2025. [48][49][53] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the high - and low - sulfur spread, viscosity spread, and cracking spread in Singapore, as well as the 3.5% cracking spread in Northwest Europe, are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [56][57][58] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Data on the M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are provided, covering 2022 - 2025. [62] 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [66][67] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of high - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as China, the Middle East, the US, and Russia are provided. [70][71] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of low - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, and the Middle East are provided. [73] 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, the fuel oil prices in the Asia - Pacific region generally declined, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were relatively stronger than the overseas market, and the premium and discount improved. - **Logic**: This week, the spot prices at home and abroad generally declined. Due to the high inventory in the Singapore market, the overseas spot prices were generally weak. In the domestic market, FU started to rebound from the bottom, and the internal - external spread was repaired. Similarly, for LU, because the newly issued quota decreased year - on - year, the spot supply at ports will not increase significantly in the future, so the internal - external spread of low - sulfur fuel oil also improved. [76] 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - Data on the trading volume and open interest of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts (main contract, continuous contract, etc.) are presented, covering 2020 - 2025. [87][89][92] 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - Data on the warehouse receipt quantity changes of FU and LU are presented, covering 2020 - 2025. [99][100]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend of fuel oil prices continued this week, and the previous strength of LU further weakened. The supply in the domestic and overseas fuel oil markets is generally loose, with an increasing trend in Middle - East exports in August. The Singapore market has entered a high - inventory state, and the weak spot market transactions will continue to suppress price trends. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the export volume from Brazil is unstable, there are obvious increases in exports from Kuwait and Indonesia. The RFCC unit maintenance of the Nigerian Dangote refinery may lead to further outflow of heavy - oil resources, and there is still an expectation of increased supply in the Asia - Pacific market. In China, the low - sulfur production decreased slightly in July, the port bunkering demand is still weak, and some refineries are expected to increase low - sulfur exports in August, so the price weakness is hard to shake off. However, attention should be paid to the new batch of export quotas. If the quota is too low, it may support short - term prices [4]. - Valuation: FU is in the range of 2700 - 2850, and LU is in the range of 3300 - 3500 [4]. - Strategies: Unilaterally, it will remain weak following crude oil in the short term; in the inter - period, the contango structure of the near - end of FU and LU will continue; in the inter - variety, the FU crack has fallen to the historical average, but there may still be room for decline, and the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), and the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units, as well as the monthly production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil [6][10][20]. Demand - It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China [23]. Inventory - Data on global fuel oil spot inventories are provided, including the heavy - oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy - distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US [27][29][30]. Price and Spread - It includes the FOB prices of fuel oil in different regions (Asia - Pacific, Europe, and the US), paper - cargo and derivative prices, fuel oil spot spreads, global fuel oil crack spreads, and global fuel oil paper - cargo monthly spreads [35][47][61]. Import and Export - There are data on domestic fuel oil import and export, global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export, and global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export [73][78][80]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - The report reviews that the Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices first rose and then fell this week, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the premium of high - sulfur spot and FU over the external - market spot was generally stable, while the premium of the near - month LU contract relative to the Singapore market began to decline. The logic is that the domestic and overseas spot and futures prices generally fell this week. FU was weaker, leading to a narrowing of its premium over the external market. For low - sulfur fuel oil, due to increased domestic refinery production and poor bunkering demand, the number of domestic warehouse receipts increased, and the previous strength of LU began to weaken, resulting in a decline in the premium of LU over the Singapore spot [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The reinstatement of Trump's tariff policy exposes the hidden concerns of the US economic governance coordination, and is not good news for the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange assets [5]. - Glass is currently weak in the short - term, and the key lies in the weak demand and continuous pressure of warehouse receipt pricing. Future improvement depends on the recovery of glass demand [6][7]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are supported by the peak demand season. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain strong in the short - term, while low - sulfur fuel oil may continue to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil [8]. - The shipment of asphalt is slowing down, and it is weak in the near - end. The main contradiction lies in the demand, especially in the South due to the approaching rainy season [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Gold and Silver - Gold is in a state of oscillating decline, and silver follows the downward trend. The trend intensities of both are 0 [14][18][22]. 3.1.2 Copper - The decrease in copper inventory supports its price, and the trend intensity is 0. In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus [24][26]. 3.1.3 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is in range - bound oscillation, and alumina is significantly supported by costs. The trend intensities of both are 0 [27][29]. 3.1.4 Zinc - Zinc faces pressure above, and the trend intensity is 0 [30][31]. 3.1.5 Lead - Lead is in range - bound oscillation, and the trend intensity is 0 [33][34]. 3.1.6 Tin - Tin breaks below the oscillation range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [36][39]. 3.1.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel is supported by short - term costs, but weak expectations limit its elasticity. Stainless steel has an increasing marginal reduction in production due to negative feedback and is difficult to fall deeply. The trend intensities of both are 0 [40][41][46]. 3.1.8 Carbonate Lithium - The de - stocking speed of carbonate lithium is slow, and its trend may remain weak. The trend intensity is - 1 [48][50]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon hits a new low on the disk, and polysilicon has amplified fluctuations. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [14][51][53]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Iron Ore - The downstream demand for iron ore has reached a phased peak, and it is in a weak oscillation. The trend intensity is - 1 [54]. 3.3.2 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a low - level oscillation with negative feedback expectations leading. The trend intensities of both are 0 [57][58][60]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a weak oscillation. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [62][65]. 3.3.4 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke has completed the second round of price cuts and is in bottom - bound oscillation. Coking coal is also in bottom - bound oscillation. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [66][68]. 3.3.5 Thermal Coal - The inventory of thermal coal mines is increasing, and it is in a weak oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [69][71]. 3.4 Others 3.4.1 Logs - Logs are in repeated oscillations [72].