北交所策略专题报告 AI 算力时代：AIDC 引发燃气轮机需求，北交所电力标的抢滩登场 北交所研究团队 ——北交所策略专题报告 | 诸海滨（分析师） | 余中天（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhuhaibin@kysec.cn | yuzhongtian@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080007 | 证书编号：S0790525050003 | AI 算力浪潮驱动燃气轮机与电网设备需求，北交所电力板块迎来高增长机遇 西门子能源公司披露 2026 年第一财季财报。美国是西门子能源本财季订单和营 收增长的最大贡献者，同比增幅分别达到 85.7%和 27.1%。Global Energy Monitor 追踪数据显示，美国目前在建的天然气发电装机容量居世界第一，其中超过三分 之一计划直接为数据中心供电。北交所内电力相关标的共有 15 家，包括民士达、 广信科技、锦华新材、宏远股份、聚星科技、球冠电缆、亿能电力、灿能电力、 科润智控、胜业电气、晨光电缆、雅达股份、派诺科技、格利尔、太湖远大。关 注民士达、广信科技、锦华新材等。广信科技（920037.BJ）为国内少数具备 750 ...

Group 1 - Japan has decided to participate in three investment projects in the United States, including a synthetic diamond project valued at approximately $600 million, a gas power generation project worth about $33.3 billion, and a crude oil infrastructure project estimated at $2.1 billion [2][3] - Companies such as Toshiba, Hitachi, and SoftBank are interested in participating in the gas project, while Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, JFE, Nippon Steel, and Mitsui Ocean Development are considering involvement in the crude oil project [2][3] - Asahi Diamond Industrial and Tsubaki Nakashima Co. have been identified as potential buyers for the synthetic diamond project [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S.-Japan economic agreement has progressed, with Japan planning to invest $36 billion in U.S. energy and critical mineral projects [4]

燃气轮机概念反复活跃，联德股份触及涨停，应流股份、杰瑞股份、航发动力、万泽股份跟涨。消息面 上，美国数据中心建设热潮引发用电荒。全球能源监测机构的全球油气工厂追踪数据显示，截至2026年 1月，美国在建天然气发电装机容量超过29吉瓦，一年内翻了一番还多。 ...

数据显示，2025年，美国新建燃气发电厂的准备周期大大增长，从2023年的三年半跃升至五年，且成本 飙升了49%。其中，燃气轮机产量远低于美国14家主要公用事业公司承诺的产能。 销量剧增 全球能源监测机构的全球油气工厂追踪数据显示，截至2026年1月，美国在建天然气发电装机容量超过 29吉瓦，一年内翻了一番还多。处于规划阶段的产能，在一年内增长了四倍多，达到159吉瓦以上。 不过这其中许多项目可能几年内都无法开工，主要就是因为制造商缺乏可用的燃气轮机。 GE Vernova首席执行官Scott Strazik指出，2025年该公司的燃气轮机合同量增长了约80%，然而大部分在 过去两年内签订的高利润订单需要到2027年以后才能开始交付。 美国数据中心建设热潮引发用电荒，天然气被视为最佳解决方案。 作者 | 马兰 人工智能数据中心建设热潮引发了美国的用电荒，并迫使科技巨头和电网公司扩大电力供应以满足不断 增长的需求，而天然气被视为解决这一难题的最佳选择。 高盛去年在一份报告中指出，天然气将受益于美国不断增长的电力需求和全天候不间断供应的要求。它 是所有能源类型中最灵活的，而且美国天然气储备十分丰富。 然而，天然气 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant cold wave driven by high-pressure systems in the Atlantic and Arctic has led to a drastic drop in temperatures across Northern and Central Europe, increasing heating demand and impacting energy supply [1] Group 1: Temperature Impact - Temperatures in southeastern England dropped to a low of -12.5℃, while eastern France and the Bavarian Alps recorded temperatures as low as -22℃ [1] - This cold wave is reported to be the most severe in France since 2012, with 26 departments in northwestern France under orange weather alerts for rain, snow, and ice [1] Group 2: Energy Demand and Supply - The cold weather has significantly raised heating demand across Europe, prompting France to increase the output of gas-fired power plants to meet the highest electricity demand in five years [1] - The coastal Charente-Maritime region in France experienced snowfall accumulation of up to 30 centimeters, further complicating energy supply and demand dynamics [1]

Core Business Positioning - The company positions itself as a "modular solution leader" in the gas power generation sector, focusing on North American AI data centers and oil and gas field microgrids, utilizing a unique model of "outsourced core engine + deep system integration + localized delivery" [1][3] Technical Route - The core technology combination includes modified aircraft engines (aero-derivative gas turbines) and gas internal combustion engines, with partnerships with Siemens and Baker Hughes for high-performance engines [2][3] - The modified gas turbines are designed for rapid start-up and high efficiency, while gas internal combustion engines are suitable for emergency backup and smaller distributed generation scenarios [2] - The company integrates its proprietary microgrid control systems and energy storage modules with purchased engines to achieve modular deployment and optimize data center PUE [2][3] Core Advantages - The company has established a strong competitive barrier through exclusive agreements with top engine manufacturers, ensuring stable supply and prioritization [3][4] - Its system integration capabilities meet stringent reliability requirements, validated by large-scale projects in North America [3] - The company leverages its existing oil and gas equipment customer base to enhance its gas power generation solutions [4] North American Orders - The company has secured two major gas power generation contracts in North America, totaling approximately 1.5 billion RMB, with deliveries expected in 2026 [4][5] - These contracts serve as primary power sources for AI data centers, highlighting the company's technological maturity and market position [4] Revenue and Profitability - The gas power generation business is part of the natural gas equipment/EPC or new energy sectors, showing significant growth potential with a projected net profit of around 500 million RMB by 2026 [5][6] - The business has a gross margin of 30%-40%, significantly higher than the overall company margin of 31.29%, indicating strong profitability [5] Growth Drivers - The gas power generation business is identified as the core growth engine for the next 2-3 years, supported by natural gas equipment and traditional oil and gas sectors [6] - The company anticipates that the gas power generation segment will evolve from a growth area to a pillar business as hydrogen transition and carbon reduction policies advance [6]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation between Jerry Holdings and Kawasaki Heavy Industries in the gas turbine sector marks a new phase in their partnership, aimed at providing power solutions for global AI data centers, industrial manufacturing, and oil and gas energy sectors [1] Group 1 - Jerry Holdings and Kawasaki Heavy Industries held a signing ceremony for strategic cooperation on December 25 [1] - The partnership will focus on the gas power generation field [1] - The collaboration aims to deliver power solutions across various sectors, including AI data centers, industrial manufacturing, and oil and gas energy [1]

Core Insights - The establishment of the Siemens Energy Hainan Gas Turbine Assembly Base marks a significant milestone in the collaboration between Siemens and the Hainan Free Trade Port, reflecting a 30-year journey of technological and economic development in the Yangpu Economic Development Zone [2][3][5]. Group 1: Historical Context - The two Siemens V94.2 gas turbines, operational for 30 years, were pivotal in the development of the Yangpu Economic Development Zone, providing reliable power and enabling industrial growth [4]. - The introduction of these turbines in 1994 was crucial for overcoming the energy supply challenges faced by the newly established economic zone [4]. Group 2: New Developments - The new Siemens Energy assembly base will serve as a comprehensive hub for manufacturing, assembly, engineering services, and R&D, aimed at the local and Southeast Asian markets for gas power, offshore wind, and green hydrogen [5][6]. - This project is the first significant foreign investment manufacturing project in Hainan since the Free Trade Port's establishment, indicating a shift from Siemens being a supplier to becoming a co-builder and solution partner [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The project aligns with the goals of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which aims to create a high-level open economy and a resilient energy system, leveraging institutional innovations and favorable policies [6][7]. - The Yangpu Economic Development Zone is evolving from attracting foreign investment through preferential policies to a model of institutional openness that gathers global high-end resources [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The transition from old to new energy infrastructure symbolizes the upgrading of development momentum in Yangpu, with Siemens' new project representing a leap in the capabilities of Hainan as a significant gateway for China's new era of openness [9].

Summary of Conference Call Records Companies and Industries Involved - **Jereh Group** (杰瑞股份) - **Haimai Technology** (豪迈科技) - **Boinhan Company** (博盈特焊) - **HRSG Industry** (Heat Recovery Steam Generators) Key Points and Arguments Jereh Group - Jereh Group expects to achieve approximately **1.5 billion RMB** in sales revenue from over **200 million USD** gas generator orders by the end of **2025 to 2026**, with a net profit increase of **300-400 million RMB** [1][5] - The company anticipates **70 million USD** in rental income for **2025**, corresponding to a profit of **200 million RMB** [1][5] - Jereh has over **800 MW** of gas turbine resources and plans to expand its capabilities in collaboration with **Baker Hughes** and **Siemens**, aiming for **6-7 billion RMB** in revenue from the power generation segment within five years [1][3][4] - The company has secured two significant orders in North America, totaling over **200 million USD**, with deliveries expected between **2025 and 2026** [2][5] - Jereh's core competitive advantages include strong design capabilities, resource reserves, and channel advantages in North America and the Middle East [6] Haimai Technology - Haimai Technology's stock has reached new highs, benefiting from the gas turbine supply chain, with a projected revenue growth of over **20%** in **2025** [3][12] - The company has a global market share of over **30%** in tire molds and maintains stable cash flow through partnerships with brands like **Bridgestone** and **Michelin** [3][12] - Haimai's large component business has expanded into gas turbines and wind power-related castings, with a strong order backlog for **2025 and 2026** [12][13] - The company is also experiencing growth in CNC machine tools, with expectations of revenue reaching **2.5 to 3 billion RMB** in **2025**, reflecting a **24%** and **20%** year-on-year increase [3][19] Boinhan Company - Boinhan's stock has doubled in less than two months, driven by the high demand in the gas turbine sector [9] - The company is expected to release order announcements that will validate its order-taking capabilities, further boosting its stock price [9][11] - Boinhan's main business is steadily rising, with net profit margins in overseas markets nearing or exceeding **20%** [11] HRSG Industry - The HRSG sector is expanding to meet customer demand, with expectations of price increases in the coming quarters due to sustained demand [10] - The industry is experiencing a significant potential for mid-sized gas turbine matching, which has not yet been fully realized [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Jereh's overall performance is projected to reach around **3 billion RMB** in **2025**, with potential to exceed **4 billion RMB** if more orders are secured [7][8] - Haimai's CNC machine tool business is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on high-end five-axis machine tools, which have a market size of approximately **12 billion RMB** [17][18] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to enter a new upcycle in **2026**, driven by equipment replacement needs and supportive policies [18]

Core Viewpoint - The successful completion of the 168-hour trial operation of the Sichuan Huadian Neijiang Gas Turbine Innovation Development Demonstration Project marks a significant advancement in energy supply for Sichuan Province, particularly during peak winter demand [1] Project Overview - The project involves the construction of two F-class 475MW gas-steam combined cycle units, with a total investment of 2.14 billion yuan [1] - The first unit has officially commenced power generation, while the second unit was put into operation on July 25 [1] Advantages and Environmental Impact - The project serves as a peak-shaving power source for the Sichuan power grid, offering advantages over traditional coal power, including rapid start-stop capabilities, flexible peak regulation, and lower carbon emissions [1] - Environmental indicators for nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide are below national ultra-low emission standards, achieving a balance between efficient power generation and green low-carbon objectives [1] Expected Outcomes - Upon full completion, the project is expected to generate an annual electricity output of 2.375 billion kWh, saving approximately 200,000 tons of standard coal and reducing carbon emissions by about 880,000 tons each year [1] - The project facilitates the local conversion and efficient utilization of shale gas resources in the Neijiang region [1]