2025年12月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：海外现货走强，支撑价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 铅：需求偏弱，限制价格上涨 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：跟涨铜 | 11 | | 氧化铝："发内卷"政策导向 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：多头情绪仍然饱满 | 13 | | 钯：震荡上行 | 13 | | 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 15 | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 29 日 黄金：通胀温和回落 白银：高位调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 2 期货研究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, presenting the latest market trends and price movements of each product, along with corresponding trading strategies. It also provides detailed fundamental data and macro - industry news for each commodity to assist investors in making decisions [1][2]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot markets showed varying degrees of increase, and ETF holdings slightly increased. Macro - industry news includes the upcoming 2026 National Two Sessions and China's continued implementation of an active fiscal policy [6][8]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment phase, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international silver prices increased significantly, and trading volume and positions changed. ETF holdings slightly decreased [6]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum has strong bullish sentiment, and palladium is in an upward - trending oscillation, both with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot markets showed significant increases, and trading volume and positions changed [23][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strength of overseas spot markets supports price increases, with a trend intensity of 1. Domestic and international copper futures prices increased, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes China's fiscal policy and production data from Peru and Kazakhstan [9][11]. - **Zinc**: It shows a slightly upward - trending oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international zinc prices had slight changes, and inventory increased. Macro - industry news includes China's industrial profit data and fiscal policy [12][14]. - **Lead**: Weak demand restricts price increases, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international lead prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes China's fiscal policy and industrial profit data [15][16]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again, with a trend intensity of 1. Domestic and international tin prices increased, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes the upcoming 2026 National Two Sessions and China's fiscal policy [18][20]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum follows the upward trend of copper; alumina has a "self - competing" policy orientation; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets had certain changes, and inventory and other data also changed [21][22]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, there is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities; for stainless steel, fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot markets had certain changes, and there were many industry news items related to Indonesia [27][31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The difference between reality and expectations increases the divergence between bulls and bears, with high - level oscillations, and a trend intensity of 0. The prices of carbonate lithium futures and spot markets increased, and inventory and other data changed. Macro - industry news includes the price increase of battery - grade carbonate lithium and the production line maintenance plan of Anda Technology [32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon should pay attention to the boost from sentiment on the market; polysilicon oscillates within a range with large fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 1 for industrial silicon and 0 for polysilicon. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot markets had certain changes, and inventory and other data also changed. Macro - industry news includes the price competition order compliance guidance in the photovoltaic industry [36][38]. - **Iron Ore**: It fluctuates repeatedly at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of iron - ore futures increased slightly, and spot prices also increased. Macro - industry news includes China's industrial profit data [39][40]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in low - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased slightly, and spot prices also had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes production, inventory, and demand data in the steel industry [41][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Both are subject to market information disturbances and have wide - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon futures decreased, and spot prices had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes the price changes of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [46][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has an expectation of a fourth - round price reduction and fluctuates repeatedly; coking coal is affected by year - end production cuts and fluctuates repeatedly, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures decreased, and spot prices also had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes the CCI metallurgical coal index and production suspension in Yunnan [50][54]. - **Log**: It oscillates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of log futures had slight changes, and spot prices were stable. Macro - industry news includes the LPR quotation [55][58]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA are in high - level oscillation markets; MEG has limited upward space and still faces medium - term pressure, all with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene, PTA, and MEG futures increased, and spot prices also had certain changes. Market dynamics include the restart of production devices [59][66]. - **Rubber**: It shows a slightly upward - trending oscillation, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of rubber increased, and the market had a positive sentiment. The import volume of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation rate may slow down [67][70]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves upward, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of synthetic rubber increased, and inventory increased slightly. The short - term price center of butadiene - styrene rubber moves upward, but the near - term fundamentals limit the upward elasticity [71][73]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of asphalt futures had slight changes, and inventory and production data also changed. Market information includes production volume and inventory data [74][85]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is weak, and spot transactions are concentrated in the middle stream, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of LLDPE futures increased, and the basis weakened. The upstream price increased, and inventory shifted to the middle stream [86][88]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market stabilizes and oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of PP futures decreased slightly, and the basis was under pressure. The downstream demand was weak, and the PDH profit was at a low level [89][91]. - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of caustic - soda futures and spot prices had certain changes. The market followed the rebound of alumina, but the supply pressure was high [92][94]. - **Pulp**: It oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of pulp futures had slight changes, and spot prices were relatively stable. The market was affected by multiple factors, and there was no clear one - sided drive [96][101]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of methanol futures decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market oscillated in a weak fundamental and strong macro environment [102][106]. - **Urea**: It oscillates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of urea futures decreased slightly, and inventory decreased. The market drive was neutral, and there was support at the bottom [107][110]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of styrene futures increased, and the processing fee was expected to be at a medium - high level. The supply and demand structure supported the price, but there were also risks [111][114]. Agricultural Products - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG has a short - term tight supply, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; propylene's spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling rebound, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of LPG and propylene futures had certain changes, and industry news includes CP paper - cargo prices and device maintenance plans [115][121]. - **PVC**: The short - term rebound height is limited, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of PVC futures and spot prices were relatively stable, and the market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern [123][126]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil mainly shows a night - session adjustment trend and may remain strong in the short term; low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market is temporarily stable, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel - oil futures had certain changes, and spot prices also changed [128]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips**: Both are in high - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The market trading atmosphere was good [130][131]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of offset - printing - paper futures increased slightly, and spot prices were stable. The market trading was light, and the price was stable [133][136]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of pure - benzene futures increased, and inventory increased. The market is expected to rebound after the first - quarter pressure [138][139]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil rebounds in the short - term rhythm with limited height; soybean oil has little driving force from US soybeans, and range operation is recommended, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of palm oil and soybean - oil futures increased slightly, and industry news includes production and export data of palm oil and soybean - growing conditions [141][146]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Overnight US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal may adjust; soybeans oscillate, both with a trend intensity of 0. The price of soybean - meal futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The US soybean market was affected by multiple factors [147][149]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of corn futures increased, and spot prices also increased. Market information includes corn prices in different regions [150][153]. - **Sugar**: The market atmosphere is strong, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of sugar futures increased, and industry news includes production and import data at home and abroad [154][157]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price回调, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of cotton futures had certain changes, and spot prices increased. The spot trading of cotton was light, and the demand of the cotton - textile industry was weak [159][164]. - **Eggs**: It oscillates and adjusts, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of egg futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The market was relatively stable [166]. - **Hogs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and it is strong in the short term, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of hog futures and spot prices increased, and industry news includes warehouse - receipt registration and anti - dumping determination [168][172]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of peanut futures had slight changes, and spot prices were stable. The market supply and demand were relatively balanced [174][176].

一、业务核心定位：燃气发电赛道的 "模块化解决方案领航者" 杰瑞的燃气发电项目，核心燃机是靠外购的，依托 "外购核心机头 + 深度系统集成 + 本 地化交付" 的独特模式，成为北美 AI 数据中心、油气田微网等场景的优选供应商，是国 内少数能在海外高端燃气发电市场实现规模化交付的企业。 其业务聚焦两大核心场景：北美 AI 数据中心（主供电源 / 调峰 / 应急）：主打 6MW/35MW 级模块化航改燃机，精准匹配高算力需求下的低 PUE、快速部署、高可靠 性要求；油气田微网 / 工业分布式：以 "燃机 + 储能 + 热电联供" 一体化方案，解决现场 供电难题与减排需求，形成差异化竞争优势。 二、技术路线：航改燃机为主，多方案互补 1. 核心技术组合 2. 与 SOFC 的场景分流（北美数据中心） 在北美数据中心燃气发电赛道，杰瑞航改燃机与 SOFC（固体氧化物燃料电池）形成互 补而非竞争：杰瑞航改燃机：主打主用 / 调峰 / 应急场景，核心优势是快速启停、规模化 交付能力强、可靠性经过长期验证，能满足数据中心突发断电、负荷波动时的供电需 求；SOFC（如 Bloom Energy 产品）：主打基荷供电（持续稳 ...

此外，东吴证券近期指出，AI数据中心建设带来大量用电需求，且对电力的可靠性、稳定性提出较高 要求。燃气轮机发电具备建设周期快、电力输出稳定、发电资源要求低等特点，有望成为短期内最优的 数据中心供电解决方案。全球燃气轮机市场主要由美国西门子、GE、三菱重工、卡特彼勒(子公司索拉) 等主导，国产替代空间较大。据了解，东方电气自主研发的G50重型燃气轮机已经实现了商运和出海。 消息面上，核聚变再迎新催化。据报道，特朗普媒体科技集团同意以全股票交易方式与核聚变能源企业 TAE科技公司合并，交易总价值超60亿美元。两家公司于周四表示，此项交易旨在整合特朗普媒体与科 技集团的资本渠道，以及TAE科技的核聚变技术，从而为人工智能产业的蓬勃发展提供能源支持。 东方电气（600875）(01072)盘中涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.11%，报23.2港元，成交额1.59亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - GEV and Siemens have reported significant growth in new gas turbine orders, indicating a strong demand in the gas turbine market, driven by the increasing electricity needs from AI data centers [2][3]. Group 1: Order Growth - GEV signed 114 new gas turbine orders in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46%, with heavy-duty gas turbine orders reaching 69 units, up 57% [2][3]. - Siemens' gas service business secured new orders worth €18.2 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a 42% year-on-year growth, with Q3 orders for gas turbines soaring by 231% to 86 units [2]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Financial Guidance - GEV has advanced its annual gas turbine production capacity target from Q3 2026 to H1 2026 and plans to increase its production capacity to 24 GW by 2028, supported by a projected capital expenditure of $10 billion from 2025 to 2028 [3]. - GEV has raised its revenue guidance for 2028 from $45 billion to $52 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin increase from 14% to 20% [3]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The construction of AI data centers is driving a surge in electricity demand, with gas turbines being positioned as the optimal power supply solution due to their quick construction cycles and stable power output [4]. - There is significant potential for domestic equipment manufacturers to replace foreign brands in the gas turbine market, with several companies identified as key players benefiting from this trend [4][5]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ) for its strong order book and partnerships with major players [5]. - Yingliu Technology (603308.SH) focusing on high-tech turbine blades for domestic replacement [5]. - Haomai Technology (002595.SZ) as a main supplier of gas turbine components [5]. - Liande Co., Ltd. (605060.SH) as a supplier for Caterpillar gas turbines [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising interest in the gas turbine sector, highlighting recent significant orders for Jerry Holdings and the overall market potential driven by the demand for stable power supply, particularly for AI data centers [1][18]. Summary by Sections Gas Turbine Overview - Gas turbines convert thermal energy into mechanical power using a high-speed rotating wheel, reflecting a country's industrial strength and playing a crucial role in the energy supply system. They are recognized for their environmental performance, operational flexibility, space efficiency, and excellent power quality [3]. Market Share and Key Players - According to GEM data, GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries dominate the global gas turbine market, holding two-thirds of the share in gas-fired power plants under construction. GE Vernova leads with nearly 55GW of capacity, particularly in Asia [4]. Advantages of Gas Turbines - Compared to nuclear power, gas power plants have shorter construction cycles, aligning better with data center needs. The average construction time for gas plants in the U.S. is under four years, while nuclear plants take about 115 months [5]. - Gas plants have faster approval processes and more stable power supply compared to solar and wind energy, which are affected by natural conditions [6]. - Gas turbines outperform diesel generators in startup speed, deployment flexibility, and maintenance costs, making them more suitable for data centers [7][8]. Cost Advantages - The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for gas power projects in the U.S. was $45/MWh in 2020, with projections to decrease to $42.72/MWh by 2028, enhancing their economic viability for AI data centers [9]. HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) - HRSG is a key component in gas-steam combined cycle systems, recovering waste heat from gas turbines to improve energy efficiency. The market for HRSG is currently underexplored, with a significant capacity gap expected to widen by 2027 [10][11]. Market Dynamics and Barriers - The North American market has stringent technical standards and customization requirements for HRSG, creating barriers for entry. Tariffs and trade policies also impact the export of HRSG equipment [12][13][14]. Domestic HRSG Export Outlook - Domestic companies like BYTH and Xizi Clean Energy are optimistic about HRSG exports, with significant production capacity planned in Vietnam and successful projects in various countries [15][16]. HRSG Value Assessment - The pricing model for HRSG is similar to gas turbines, with average values per production line estimated at $10-12 million. The industry’s net profit margins are expected to rise as supply-demand gaps widen [17].

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (000338.SZ) has signed a manufacturing license agreement with its associate company Ceres Power Holdings plc to establish a production line for batteries and stacks aimed at the stationary power generation market [1] Group 1 - The agreement is set to be executed on November 5, 2025 [1] - Key components for the production will be supplied by Ceres Power [1] - The products will provide power for AI data centers, commercial buildings, and industrial parks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power announced a manufacturing license agreement with its associate company Ceres Power Holdings plc to establish production lines for batteries and stacks aimed at the stationary power generation market [1] Group 1 - The agreement is set to be effective from November 5, 2025 [1] - Key components for the production will be supplied by Ceres Power [1] - The products will provide power for AI data centers, commercial buildings, and industrial parks [1]

Core Insights - Bloom Energy's stock price increased over 23%, reaching $139.66, following the release of its latest earnings report [1] - The company reported Q3 adjusted earnings per share of $0.15, exceeding analyst expectations, and revenue of $519 million, significantly higher than the anticipated $428 million [1] - Bloom Energy announced plans to expand its production capacity, aiming for an annual fuel cell production capacity of 2 gigawatts by the end of 2026 [1] - The stock has surged over 350% this year, driven by the concept of powering AI data centers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bloom Energy's stock price surged over 23%, reaching $139.66, following the release of its latest earnings report which exceeded analyst expectations [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a Q3 adjusted earnings per share of $0.15, surpassing analyst forecasts [1] - Revenue for the quarter was $519 million, significantly higher than the expected $428 million [1] Capacity Expansion - Bloom Energy announced plans to expand its production capacity, aiming to achieve an annual production capacity of 2 gigawatts of fuel cells by the end of 2026 [1] Stock Performance - The stock has experienced a remarkable increase of over 350% this year, driven by the concept of powering AI data centers [1]