【导读】 葛卫东、冯柳等 知名私募最新调仓换股情况曝光 中国基金报记者 吴君 随着A股上市公司2025年半年报披露，知名私募最新调仓换股情况逐步浮出水面。 今年二季度，高毅资产冯柳继续加仓安琪酵母，但减持了海康威视、东诚药业；混沌投资葛卫东仍然持有移远通信、臻镭科技，臻镭科 技年初至今股价上涨近93%；睿郡资产董承非减持了芯朋微，仁桥资产夏俊杰加仓新经典，银叶投资新进浩欧博。 葛卫东持有移远通信、臻镭科技 高毅资产冯柳连续加仓安琪酵母 二季度末，混沌投资董事长葛卫东继续持有移远通信362.60万股，较一季度末没有变化；期末参考市值为3.11亿元，位列第六大流通股 东。 物联网模组龙头移远通信今年以来股价上涨了26.69%。 | | | 高毅资产冯柳2025年二季度末持仓 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券简称 | 流通股东名称 | 期末参考市值(亿元) | 持股数量(万股) | 持股数量变动 | | 海康威视 | 高毅邻山1号远望基金 | 93.73 | 33,800.00 | 減少 (1200.00 | | 安琪酵母 | 高毅邻山1号远望基金 | 12.31 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 124.60 RMB [7][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 39.98% year-on-year for H1 2025, reaching 11.546 billion RMB, and a net profit growth of 125.03%, amounting to 471 million RMB [1]. - The growth is attributed to the company's strategic focus on the Internet of Things (IoT) sector and its transition from a module supplier to a comprehensive IoT solution provider [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in industry demand and the long-term opportunities presented by edge AI development [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 11.546 billion RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 6.325 billion RMB in Q2 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 47.28% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.14% [1][2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for H1 2025 was 17.71%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.43 percentage points [3]. Business Expansion - The company's module and antenna business generated 11.5 billion RMB in revenue for H1 2025, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in 5G, LTE, and automotive modules [2]. - The company achieved overseas revenue of 5.3 billion RMB, a 30% increase year-on-year, while domestic revenue reached 6.3 billion RMB, growing by 49% [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a stabilization and recovery in market demand for IoT modules, with expectations for improved trends as downstream demand recovers [4]. - The shift towards edge computing in AI is expected to enhance the value of IoT modules, transitioning their role from mere transmission to "transmission + computation" [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been revised upwards to 988 million RMB, 1.197 billion RMB, and 1.403 billion RMB, respectively [5]. - The company is assigned a 2025 PE ratio of 33x, reflecting its leading position in the IoT industry, with a target price adjustment to 124.60 RMB [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [7][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 11.45 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.8%, with a net profit of RMB 463 million, up 121% year-on-year [8]. - The company is transitioning from a module supplier to a comprehensive IoT solution provider, leveraging advancements in 5G and AI technologies to enhance its market position [10]. - The IoT industry is anticipated to recover significantly in 2025, with the company poised to benefit from this growth as it maintains the largest global market share in IoT module shipments [10]. - The company has a strong focus on AIoT technologies, integrating AI with IoT applications, which is expected to drive future growth [10]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of RMB 1.024 billion, RMB 1.517 billion, and RMB 2.234 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 3.91, RMB 5.80, and RMB 8.54 [10]. Company Overview - The company operates in the communication industry, with a current A-share price of RMB 82.24 and a market capitalization of RMB 21.519 billion [2]. - The stock has shown significant price appreciation over the past year, with a 63.3% increase [2]. - Major shareholders include Qian Penghe, holding 17.19% of the shares [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 90.71 million in 2023, with projections of RMB 588.22 million in 2024 and RMB 1.023 billion in 2025, reflecting substantial growth [9]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 21, 14, and 10, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [10].

Core Viewpoint - The performance expectations of communication companies are diverging in Q2 2025, but overall improvement is anticipated compared to Q1, driven by the surge in AI demand in North America [1] Group 1: Performance Expectations - The leading companies in optical modules are expected to experience rapid growth due to the explosion of AI demand in North America [1] - The performance of optical devices and second-tier optical module companies is also expected to accelerate [1] - Domestic demand for computing power continues to improve, with leading domestic optical module and switch companies expected to perform well [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The AIDC sector, due to its heavy asset characteristics, is expected to see performance improvements in the second half of 2025 [1] - Traditional domestic communication equipment is generally under pressure [1] - Overall, the performance of operators is stable, with growth expectations improving compared to Q1 [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The deep-sea construction is expected to drive the optical cable and submarine cable industry into an upward channel [1] - The IoT module sector maintains a favorable outlook, with performance expected to grow on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1] Group 4: Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies in optical modules, AIDC, operators, and IoT sectors [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.221 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, and a net profit of 212 million RMB, up 286.9% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [7]. - The company is focusing on emerging fields such as industrial intelligence, smart agriculture, AI models, and edge computing, which are expected to drive future growth [10]. - The IoT industry is recovering, with expectations for significant growth in 2025 as global demand gradually returns [10]. - The company is well-positioned in the AIoT sector, leveraging its experience in edge computing and exploring various AI technologies [10]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 900 million, 1.32 billion, and 1.89 billion RMB, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 53%, 47%, and 43% [10]. Company Overview - The company operates in the communication industry, with a current A-share price of 68.98 RMB and a market capitalization of 18.049 billion RMB [2]. - The stock has seen a 12-month high of 95.6 RMB and a low of 38.06 RMB, with a significant year-on-year price increase of 82.2% [2]. - Major shareholders include Qian Penghe, holding 17.19% of shares [2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 17.81% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.88 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 4.04%, up 2.71 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 3.44 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 [8][10].

Group 1: Key Insights on Gujinggong Liquor (古井贡酒) - The company reported 2024 revenue of 23.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, and a net profit of 5.52 billion, up 20.2% year-on-year [12][16] - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 9.15 billion, growing 10.4% year-on-year, with net profit at 2.33 billion, a 12.8% increase [12][16] - The company maintains a buy rating with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 5.92 billion, 6.29 billion, and 6.63 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 7.3%, 6.3%, and 5.3% [16] Group 2: Key Insights on Chongqing Bank (重庆银行) - In Q1 2025, Chongqing Bank achieved revenue of 3.6 billion, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.6 billion, also up 5.3% [15][20] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.21%, with a provision coverage ratio rising to 248% [15][20] - The bank's loan growth accelerated, with a 16.4% year-on-year increase, driven by a more than 30% growth in corporate loans [20] Group 3: Industry Insights on Real Estate - The recent political bureau meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, highlighting the need for high-quality housing supply [22][26] - The meeting also called for optimizing the policies for acquiring existing housing stock, indicating a proactive approach to address market challenges [26] - The real estate sector is viewed as crucial for economic stability, with ongoing support expected to enhance market conditions [22][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.19 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.13%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 668 million yuan, up 18.53% year-on-year [6] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by domestic vehicle and 5G FWA businesses, with a notable increase in revenue from the core business excluding the impact of the divested wireless vehicle business [6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the expected explosion in applications of edge AI and robotics, with new product launches such as the "Nebula Series" AI modules and the Fibot embodied intelligent robot development platform [6] - The company has a strong outlook for its vehicle and FWA businesses, with expectations for continued high growth supported by advancements in AI capabilities and product offerings [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7.716 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.105 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.4% from 2025 to 2027 [5][8] - Net profit is expected to fluctuate, with estimates of 626 million yuan in 2025, 752 million yuan in 2026, and 966 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth trajectory despite a slight dip in 2025 [5][8] - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 19.7% to 20.2% over the forecast period, indicating a focus on maintaining profitability amid revenue growth [5]

Macroeconomic Overview - In April, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 50.7, above the expected 49 and previous 50.2; the Services PMI preliminary value is 51.4, below the expected 52.6 and previous 54.4; the Composite PMI preliminary value is 51.2, below the expected 52 and previous 53.5 [3] - The Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 48.7, above the expected 47.4 and previous 48.6; the Services PMI preliminary value is 49.7, below the expected 50.5 and previous 51; the Composite PMI preliminary value is 50.1, slightly above the neutral 50, below the expected 50.2 and previous 50.9 [4] - The data indicates that Manufacturing PMI values are performing better than Services PMI, suggesting that the impact of trade wars on manufacturing has not yet fully materialized, while the Services sector reflects economic sentiment more quickly [4] Company Analysis: Yiyuan Communication - Yiyuan Communication reported a 2024 revenue of 18.594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.14%, with a gross margin of 17.61%, down 1.33 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders is 588 million yuan, up 548.5% [7] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 5.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, with a net profit of 145 million yuan, up 265% [7] - The growth is driven by a recovery in the IoT industry, with shipments of LTE, automotive, and 5G modules increasing by over 60% [7] Company Analysis: Sanhuan Group - Sanhuan Group reported a 2024 revenue of 7.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, with a gross margin of 43%, up 3.15 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders is 2.19 billion yuan, up 38.6% [8] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, with a net profit of 587 million yuan, up 33.8% [8] - The strong performance is attributed to a recovery in demand for consumer electronics and optical communication, as well as increased sales of MLCC products [8] Company Analysis: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.15%, with a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% [10] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, with a net profit of 91 million yuan, up 62.13% [10] - The overseas market remains the core source of revenue and profit, with a focus on OEM/ODM partnerships to enter international markets [10] Company Analysis: Wen's Food Group - Wen's Food Group reported a 2024 revenue of 104.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, with a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, up 244.5% [11] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 6.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 82.7% [11] - The company achieved profitability in its pig farming business, with a significant increase in pig sales volume and a rise in average selling price [12]

随着年报季的徐徐展开，券商分析师也加足马力，火速跟踪上市公司最新财报数据调整观点。东方财富 Choice数据显示，过去一周（3月21日至3月27日）就有15只股票被分析师调整评级。 从券商上调评级的股票来看，业绩改善与困境反转是不少股票评级上调的共性原因，地产板块的金地集团 同时被中金公司及中银证券两家券商上调评级。另一方面，多只消费股的评级近期遭下调，业绩不及预期 或盈利下降是主因；此外还有公司因"涨多了"而被下调评级。 困境反转，2股被券商上调评级 记者注意到，企业经营边际改善的"困境反转"逻辑，是不少个股近期被券商上调评级的原因之一。 例如，金地集团于日前发布2024年年报，尽管该公司2024年亏损，但中金公司、中银证券均上调了该股 票的评级；东方证券也上调了中国石化的评级至"买入"，预计其经营状况将迎来改善拐点。 具体来看，金地集团本周发布的2024年年报显示，公司2024年实现营业收入753.44亿元，同比下降 23.22%；归母净利润为-61.15 亿元，同比下降788.54%，乃公司上市24年后的首次亏损。不过，券商分 析师却纷纷从财报中看到了困境反转的机遇。 中金公司也将金地集团评级上调至"跑 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as servers, IDC, switches, switching chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling driven by domestic AI development, as well as servers and optical modules driven by overseas AI development [5]. Core Insights - DeepSeek has disclosed the theoretical cost and profit margin of its V3/R1 inference system, with a theoretical daily revenue of $562,027 and a profit margin of 545%. This advancement, along with the launch of the general-purpose AI Agent product Manus by Monica, is expected to accelerate the domestic AI application deployment and enhance profitability in the AI sector [1][10]. - The acceleration of AI technology iteration is leading to increased demand for computing power, prompting major internet companies like ByteDance and Baidu to potentially raise capital expenditures to expand their computing investments [1][12]. - The report highlights that in March 2025, Broadcom's Q1 revenue reached $14.916 billion, a 25% year-on-year increase, with net profit soaring by 315% to $5.503 billion, indicating strong performance in AI semiconductor revenue [1]. Summary by Sections Server Sector - Approximately 60% of the investment in large models is allocated to hardware procurement, with servers accounting for 69% of total capital expenditure. The year 2025 is projected to see a significant increase in inference demand, benefiting domestic ASIC chip manufacturers like ZTE and Unisoc [2][7]. Switch Sector - Network equipment procurement, including switches, constitutes about 11% of hardware procurement. Major suppliers like Ruijie Networks and Unisoc are positioned to benefit from the demand from leading internet companies [2][10]. IDC Sector - Data centers are crucial for AI development and deployment, with companies like Data Port and Runjian signing agreements to provide computing services. IDC suppliers are expected to benefit significantly from large-scale construction in 2025 [3][12]. Liquid Cooling Sector - The liquid cooling market is anticipated to expand significantly, with NVIDIA's NVL36/72 cabinets expected to be shipped in bulk by 2025. Domestic suppliers are accelerating their international expansion, indicating a promising growth trajectory [3][14]. Core Data Updates - In December, the three major telecom operators achieved a total telecom revenue of 141.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.10%. New business revenue reached 39.6 billion yuan, growing by 66.39% year-on-year [4][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sectors such as servers, IDC, switches, switching chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling, driven by both domestic and international AI developments [5].