Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: In July, China's export performance was strong, with non-US countries supporting exports and electromechanical products showing competitive advantages. However, future export growth is expected to decline gradually, and the decision - makers' policies are expected to improve the price index [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar is weak, and non - US currencies are generally strong. The short - term exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB is expected to be supported in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a likely anchor at 7.20 [3]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic economic data did not exceed market expectations, and the short - term market is expected to continue the trend of shrinking volume and oscillation. Wait for the release of domestic financial data and US inflation data [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The liquidity has improved, and the primary market situation is better than expected. It is recommended to hold long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The SCFI European line continues to decline. The futures price is expected to be in a volatile or slightly declining trend in the short - to - medium term [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [13][14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium resources is expected to tighten, and investors need to be cautious about holding positions [17]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [21]. - **Black Metals**: Steel products are expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state in the short term, and iron ore is in a narrow - range oscillation. Coal and coke are not pessimistic in the medium - to - long term, and ferroalloys are recommended to be lightly bought on dips [22][24][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is at risk of decline, LPG remains in a loose situation, PTA - PX is recommended to expand the processing fee, ethylene glycol is recommended to be bought on dips, methanol 09 is weak, PP and PE are in an oscillatory state, PVC is to be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene have weak short - term unilateral drives, fuel oil is weak, low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, asphalt is in a weak oscillation, urea is in a weak oscillation, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a game between reality and expectation [30][32][37][40][42][43][46][48][50] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - **Domestic**: In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed. The export was strong, and the decision - makers introduced a series of livelihood policies [1][2]. - **Overseas**: The US non - farm payrolls data was revised downwards, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased. There were various international events such as potential US - Russia cease - fire agreements and tariff policies [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated. The US dollar index was weak, and non - US currencies were strong [2][3] - **Influencing Factors**: The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the US domestic economic situation, China's export performance, and the central bank's guidance [3][4] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index oscillated, and the trading volume decreased. The futures index volume decreased, and the bullish sentiment declined [5] - **Influencing Factors**: Domestic economic data, policy support, and the upcoming release of financial and inflation data [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures opened high and closed low, then rebounded. The liquidity improved, and the primary market situation was better than expected [5][6] - **Influencing Factors**: Liquidity improvement, the issuance of local bonds, and the impact of VAT adjustment [6] Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The container shipping index (European line) futures oscillated, and the SCFI European line continued to decline [7][8] - **Influencing Factors**: Shipping company performance, geopolitical risks, and shipping company price adjustments [8] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated, affected by tariff policies and Fed news. Fund positions and inventory changed [9][10][11] - **Influencing Factors**: US tariff policies, Fed interest rate cut expectations, and China's gold reserve increase [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: The price oscillated, affected by inventory and the approaching peak season [13] - **Alumina**: The supply was excessive, the price was under pressure, and the cost was the support [14] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand were good, and the price followed the aluminum price [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the fundamentals provided some support [16] - **Influencing Factors**: Supply and demand of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel, and macro - level factors such as tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose, and the inventory increased [16][17] - **Influencing Factors**: Mine - end news, production and demand of the lithium battery industry chain, and the suspension of mining operations [16][17] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the production and demand of the industry changed [17][18][19] - **Influencing Factors**: Production capacity changes, market demand, and the adjustment of registered brands [18][19][20] Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were affected by production restrictions and market demand [22] - **Iron Ore**: The price oscillated in a narrow range, and the supply and demand were affected by coal prices and steel demand [22][23][24] - **Coal and Coke**: The prices oscillated strongly, and the supply and demand were affected by production inspections, imports, and downstream demand [24][25] - **Ferroalloys**: The prices fluctuated with coal prices, and the supply and demand were affected by steel production and raw material supply [26][27][28] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price declined, and the supply and demand were affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical events [28][29][30] - **LPG**: The price was under pressure, and the supply was loose while the demand was slightly improved [31][32] - **PTA - PX**: The price followed the cost, and there was a supply - demand gap in August [32][33] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a weak balance [36] - **Methanol**: The 09 contract was weak, and the port inventory increased [37][38] - **PP and PE**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a state of change [39][40][42] - **PVC**: The price was high - valued and high - inventory, and it was recommended to be short - allocated [43] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral drive was weak, and the supply and demand situation was different [43][44][46] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The prices were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [46] - **Asphalt**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by weather and funds [47][48] - **Urea**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by export and agricultural demand [49][50] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices were in a game between reality and expectation, and the supply and demand were different [50][51][53]

服务行业：海南自贸封关时间已定。 1）国家发展改革委副主任王昌林7月23日在国新办发布会上表示，关于海南 自贸港封关的具体时间，经党中央批准，定于2025年12月18日正式启动。王昌林表示，在12月18日这一天启动封 关运作，具有重要象征意义，也是向世界展示我国坚定不移扩大高水平开放的决心和信心。接下来还有几个月时 间，我们将抓紧做好后续准备工作，帮助经营主体充分了解封关政策、开展相关业务测试。 宏观日报 | 2025-07-24 关注AI下游人形机器人消费进展 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注人形机器人领域发展。 1）7月23日，农业农村部召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会，部党组书 记、部长韩俊主持会议并讲话。会议强调，进一步强化市场引导和政策支持，健全生猪产能综合调控机制，促进 生猪市场稳定运行，加快推进生猪产业转型升级，推动生猪产业稳定健康发展.。2）华尔街投行摩根士丹利发布报 告预测，人形机器人今年下半年将在中国"被广泛采用"。大摩还预测称，未来中国在人形机器人领域将愈发占据 优势，与美国等其他国家的差距将逐步拉开。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）黑色：黑色商品集体价格上行。2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided reports do not mention industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The Malaysian palm oil market is under downward pressure due to the sharp decline in crude oil and the recovery of production. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market is expected to fall further to the range of 8,150 - 8,250 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: International soybean oil prices are under pressure due to the expected decline in Indian imports and favorable crop weather in the US. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the factory sell - pressure is not strong, and the basis quote is supported [1]. Meal Industry - The bullish sentiment of US soybeans has been fully traded. With the improvement of weather expectations and the decline in oil prices, the market is weak. Domestic soybean inventory pressure is acceptable, and soybean meal inventory is still low. The short - term disk may follow the US soybeans to correct, but the decline is expected to be limited [3]. Corn Industry - The current corn supply varies with traders' strategies. In the short term, corn prices may correct due to increased arrivals and auction expectations, but in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand gap supports an upward trend. It is advisable to go long on dips [5]. Pig Industry - The current pig breeding still has profits, but the market is cautious about capacity expansion. The short - term disk may be strong, but there is a risk of a decline in the 09 contract near delivery if the live inventory continues to be postponed [9][10]. Cotton Industry - The market driving force is still weak, with the downstream textile industry's开机 rate decreasing and finished product inventory increasing. However, the supply - side basis of old crops is still relatively strong. The short - term domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. Sugar Industry - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. If there are no new negative factors, the possibility of a significant decline in sugar prices is small. This week, it is expected to maintain bottom - range fluctuations between 5,650 - 5,800 [15]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is still sufficient. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, and may experience a slight decline later [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On June 24, the futures price of Y2509 was 7,606 yuan, down 1.60% from the previous day. The basis was 654 yuan, down 26 yuan. The inventory of factories increased by 30,000 tons last weekend, and the estimated soybean arrival in July is about 11 million tons [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On June 24, the futures price of P2509 was 8,208 yuan, down 2.05%. The basis was 282 yuan, down 138 yuan. The import cost in Guangzhou Port in September was 8,737.7 yuan, down 1.80% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On June 24, the futures price of OI2509 was 9,310 yuan, down 1.55%. The basis was 470 yuan, up 7 yuan [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: On June 24, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The futures price of M2509 was 3,037 yuan, down 0.98%. The basis was - 117 yuan, up 10 yuan [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,550 yuan, down 1.20%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,657 yuan, down 0.82%. The basis was - 107 yuan, down 9 yuan [3]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On June 24, the futures price of Corn 2509 was 2,389 yuan, down 0.79%. The basis was - 9 yuan, up 19 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 108 yuan, down 9 yuan [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2509 was 2,744 yuan, down 1.51%. The basis was - 24 yuan, up 42 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan, down 24 yuan [5]. Pig Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the price of the main contract was 13,550 yuan for the 2507 contract, up 0.74%, and 13,940 yuan for the 2509 contract, down 0.29%. The 7 - 9 spread was 390 yuan, down 140 yuan [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 14,550 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Shandong, it was 14,900 yuan, up 100 yuan [9]. Cotton Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the futures price of Cotton 2509 was 13,610 yuan, up 1.08%; the 2601 contract was 13,585 yuan, up 0.63%. The 9 - 1 spread was 25 yuan, up 60 yuan [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14,767 yuan, down 0.09%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,883 yuan, down 0.07% [13]. Sugar Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the futures price of Sugar 2509 was 5,710 yuan, down 0.19%; the 2601 contract was 5,555 yuan, down 0.36%. The 1 - 9 spread was - 155 yuan, down 9 yuan [15]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,040 yuan, down 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5,860 yuan, down 0.09% [15]. Egg Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the price of the Egg 09 contract was 3,642 yuan, up 0.33%; the 07 contract was 2,819 yuan, down 1.33%. The 9 - 7 spread was 823 yuan, up 50 yuan [17]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.92 yuan per catty, down 0.24% [17].