2025年07月16日 证券研究报告 | 商贸零售行业2025年中期投资策略 产品驱动叠加调改创新，新质消费彰显增长韧性 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：张峻豪 021-60933168 zhangjh@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980517070001 0755-81981311 liuxu1@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980522120001 证券分析师：柳旭 证券分析师：孙乔容若 021-60375463 sunqiaorongruo@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523090004 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 投资摘要 附表：重点公司盈利预测及估值 | 代码 | 公司 | 投资 | 收盘价 | 总市值（亿元） | | EPS | | | | PE | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名称 | 评级 | 07-11 | 07-11 | 2024 | 2025E ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the retail sector [2][4][40]. Core Insights - The domestic beauty and cosmetics brands performed exceptionally well during the March 8 promotional event, with a GMV exceeding 9.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year growth [1][11]. - The gold and jewelry industry is expected to reach a turning point, with improved terminal demand anticipated in Q2 2025 after a bottoming out in Q1 2025 [2][14]. - The report highlights a shift in the gold and jewelry sector's driving factors from price and store openings to product strength and craftsmanship [2][14]. Summary by Sections Beauty and Cosmetics - The March 8 promotional event saw 380 beauty products from 141 brands, with local brands accounting for approximately 41.7% of the total GMV [1][11]. - Notable local brands like Perleya and Mao Geping have shown significant improvements in rankings compared to previous years [1][11]. Gold and Jewelry - The industry is expected to recover from previous price fluctuations, with a focus on craftsmanship and brand strength driving future growth [2][14]. - The report suggests that consumer preferences are shifting towards unique designs and personal expression rather than just investment value [14]. Investment Recommendations - High-growth new consumer stocks are expected to maintain premium valuations, with companies like Laopu Gold and Mao Geping recommended for attention [2][41]. - The gold and jewelry sector is projected to improve gradually starting Q2 2025, with companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang highlighted as potential investments [2][43]. - Retail companies are actively transforming their business models, with recommendations for companies like Bailian and Yonghui Superstores [2][43]. - The integration of AI in business operations is anticipated to enhance efficiency and open new growth avenues, with companies like Xiaoshangpin City and Anke Innovation recommended [2][43].