核心观点 免税：春节假期离岛免税销售整体稳健，市场预期过高导致股价暂时承压。短期看，折扣缩减、货币升值的带动仍有 待体现；中期看，高端消费复苏、日本旅游回流逻辑不变，看好中长期业绩增长逻辑不变，持续推荐。 黄金珠宝：本周金价整理后向上突破，头部品牌涨价效果或好于预期。2 月 28 日老铺黄金正式启动 2026 年开年首轮 调价，整体涨幅在 20%-30%之间，创下公司历史调价新高。本次调价呈现大克重、热门款涨价更高的规律，小克重入 门款相对涨价幅度较小，对高客群体的价格策略方面更加强调品牌调性。 消费者对涨价接受度好于预期，品牌力持续验证。从线下表现看，2 月 27 日北京、上海、广州、澳门多地门店排队火 爆，排队时间或达 3 小时以上；2 月 28 日涨价后上海豫园店、杭州万象城等地依然出现排队盛况。看好 26 年店铺优 化调整与高客运营策略，同店增长有望持续；同时海外加速布局，有望贡献超额增量。 行业数据追踪 GMV 表现：根据国金数字未来 Lab，1 月第 4 周天猫+京东整体 GMV 同比+81.52%，同比高增或与年货节错期相关。 品类表现：根据国金数字未来 Lab，1 月第 4 周天猫+京东品类增 ...

核心观点：春节文旅量稳价升，看好高端消费回暖 我们认为，2026 年消费最确定的增量来自服务，而文旅是服务消费中最具弹性的赛道，因此选择开设"数说文旅消费" 专题，重点跟踪文旅消费数据。 总览：2026 年春节消费延续元旦复苏趋势，量增平稳、价格改善亮眼。商务大数据显示假期前四天全国重点零售及餐 饮企业日均销售额同比+8.6%，显著高于 2025 年国庆中秋 2.7%及春节 5.4%增速。 出行：春节长假期驱动长途出行旺盛，长辈"反向过节"趋势明显，客流量增长亮眼。根据交通部数据，2026 年 2 月 16 日-2 月 21 日日均全社会跨区域人员流动 2.99 亿人次，同比 2025 年同期+11.05%，累计跨区域人员流动达 17.93 亿人次，同比+11.13%，长途出行市场维持高景气。分具体出行方式看，春节前六日铁路/公路/水路/民航累计分别较 2025 年同期+ 16.37%/+10.90%/+31.05%/+9.45%。 旅游：春节客流充裕，多景区供给侧优化，营收增长亮眼。张家界黄龙洞将非遗年俗与溶洞景观深度融合，三峡游轮 将传统年俗与三峡风光交融，打造沉浸式体验；黄山旅游借力有奖发票活动，将外部 ...

免税/旅游数据 #1月离岛免税销售额同比+44.8%。 2026年1月，海南离岛免税购物市场迎来"开门红"，实现购物金额45.3亿元，同比增长44.8%。 #春节期间海南旅游预订火热。 【国金商社】2月金股中国中免H：1月离岛免税超预期，看好春节旺季期间销售表现，继续重点推荐！ 今日早盘中国中免A股大涨5.1%，H股大涨8.2%，持续推荐！ 免税/旅游数据 #1月离岛免税销售额同比+44.8%。 2026年1月，海南离岛免税购物市场迎来"开门红"，实现购物金额45.3亿元，同比增长44.8%。 【国金商社】2月金股中国中免H：1月离岛免税超预期，看好春节旺季期间销售表现，继续重点推荐！ 今日早盘中国中免A股大涨5.1%，H股大涨8.2%，持续推荐！ OTA平台数据显示，截至2月初，春节假期海南日均机票订单量同比增长45%+。 去哪儿数据显示，海南春节酒店整体预订热度同比增长191%。 木鸟民宿数据显示，海南春节民宿订单同比上涨79.6%，人均消费增长15%。 中期：高端消费回暖持续验证！#雅诗兰黛25Q4中国大陆净销售额增长13%，连续实现双位数增长。 太古集团中国内地零售物业销售额FY25增速较Q1-3扩大 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Bama Tea Industry (06980) has seen a significant decline in its stock price, dropping over 10% to 43 HKD, which is below its IPO price of 50 HKD [1] - Bama Tea Industry is recognized as a leading tea brand and retail chain supplier in China, covering six major categories of tea and related products [1] - The company is projected to maintain steady growth in its tea business, with an expansion of offline channels and optimization of store efficiency, alongside the development of online channels [1] Group 2 - Bama Tea Industry ranks first in the number of tea chain specialty stores in China for 2024 and holds the top market share in sales revenue for Oolong and black tea categories [1] - According to a report by Zhongtai Securities, the tea market is experiencing diversified demand and supply-side consolidation, which benefits industry leaders like Bama Tea [1] - Short-term forecasts indicate a decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with expected year-on-year changes of -4% and -18% respectively, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to a rebound in high-end consumption [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the retail industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a warming trend in high-end consumption, particularly benefiting offline department stores and supermarkets. It notes that the retail industry has undergone significant changes over the past decade, with a contraction in supply due to the rise of e-commerce and other retail formats. The report anticipates a recovery in offline retail driven by increased policy support and adjustments in supermarket operations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that the "Retail Wheel" theory reveals cyclical patterns in the retail industry. It identifies two main investment themes: 1. Accelerated adjustments in supermarkets, with resilient performance expected from leading regional retail companies such as Chongqing Department Store, Bubugao, Yonghui Supermarket, Huijia Times, Xinhua Department Store, and Jiajia Yue [3]. 2. Department stores with luxury goods operations are expected to benefit from the recovery in high-end consumption, including companies like Hangzhou Department Store and Wushang Group [3]. High-End Retail Market Signals - Several high-end retailers are showing signs of stabilization, with LVMH, Hermès, Prada, and Kering reporting positive revenue growth. For instance, Hermès and Prada saw revenue increases of 9.6% and 8%, respectively. LVMH has returned to positive growth after two quarters of decline, and Kering's losses have significantly narrowed [8]. - Notable sales growth was observed in Beijing and Shanghai's high-end retail locations, with sales increases of 7.8% and 41.9% respectively in the first three quarters [8]. Upcoming Consumer Trends - The extended Spring Festival in 2026 is expected to boost seasonal consumption, with a potential 10-day shopping period when combined with Valentine's Day. Historical data indicates that the first quarter's performance is crucial for annual revenue, suggesting a favorable outlook for 2026 [8]. - The implementation of a nationwide "immediate refund" policy for outbound travelers is anticipated to enhance consumer spending from foreign visitors, with significant increases in the number of travelers and refund amounts reported [8].

Group 1 - Bosideng launched a new high-end series "AREAL" in collaboration with creative director Kim Jones, showcasing the collection at a global premiere in Shanghai [1] - Edvance Group has played a significant role in Bosideng's brand transformation and high-end strategy, indicating a strong partnership [1] - Edvance Group has achieved a market share of 13.8% in high-end brand experience marketing in Greater China, serving over 550 world-class brands [1] Group 2 - LVMH's third-quarter performance exceeded market expectations, with organic revenue growth of 2% in the Asia-Pacific region, signaling a recovery in high-end consumption [2] - The recovery of the Chinese luxury market and the shift of local brands like Bosideng towards high-end positioning are expected to benefit Edvance Group through increased marketing budgets [2] - Edvance Group is poised for a new round of value reassessment due to its strong luxury marketing experience and leading industry position [2]

Group 1 - Bosideng has launched a new high-end series "AREAL" in collaboration with creative director Kim Jones, showcasing Eastern craftsmanship on a global stage [1] - Edvance Group has played a significant role in Bosideng's brand transformation and high-end strategy, indicating a clear growth opportunity for Edvance in the high-end market [1] - Edvance Group has achieved a market share of 13.8% in high-end brand experience marketing in Greater China, serving over 550 world-class brands [1] Group 2 - LVMH's third-quarter performance exceeded market expectations, with organic revenue growth of 2% in the Asia-Pacific region, signaling a recovery in high-end consumption [2] - The recovery of the Chinese luxury market and the move of local brands like Bosideng towards high-end positioning are expected to benefit Edvance Group, leading to a structural increase in brand marketing budgets [2]