1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply decreased last week, demand increased, and the market is affected by factors such as cost support, inventory levels, and downstream production trends. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8510 - 8760 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production is decreasing, demand is showing signs of recovery but may be weak in the future, and cost support is stabilizing. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 47635 - 50375 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 85,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 9.59% increase from the previous week, with demand rising [6]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory was 302,000 tons, at a high level; the silicone inventory was 53,200 tons, at a low level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 68,200 tons, at a high level; the social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 203,300 tons, a 0.44% increase; the main port inventory was 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 13th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 565 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions increasing [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule is decreasing, inventory remains high, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support increases, and the industrial silicon 2605 contract oscillates between 8510 - 8760 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon production was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for January is expected to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease compared to the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.52GW, a 3.33% increase from the previous week; the inventory was 262,300 tons, a 13.10% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is at a loss. The production schedule for January is 45.2GW, a 2.96% increase compared to the previous month. In December, the battery cell production was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease; last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 9.04GW, a 1.34% increase. Currently, battery cell production is at a loss. The production schedule for January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease. In December, the component production was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease; the expected component production for January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 31.3GW, a 5.43% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,650 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On January 13th, the price of N - type dense material was 54,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5745 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 302,000 tons, a 1.30% decrease, at a high level compared to the same period in history [11]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [11]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule continues to decrease, demand from silicon wafer production continues to increase, battery cell production continues to decrease, component production continues to decrease. Overall demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. Cost support stabilizes, and the polysilicon 2605 contract oscillates between 47635 - 50375 [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 02 contract down 1.38%, the 03 contract down 1.49%, etc. [17]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts increased, with the 08 contract up 119.27% [17]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 11,128, a 2.20% increase [17]. - **Organosilicon**: The DMC production decreased by 1.86%, the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 64.23%, and the profit was 2100 yuan/ton [17]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The monthly production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46%, the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.85% [17]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [17]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.90%, the sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.44%, and the main port inventory decreased by 2.14% [17]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: The weekly sample enterprise production decreased by 5.28%, the production in Sichuan decreased by 100.00%, and the production in Xinjiang decreased by 5.09% [17]. - **Cost/Profit**: The cost of 553 in Yunnan increased by 12.18%, and the cost of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang increased by 13.68% [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of various silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, the weekly production increased by 5.74%, and the weekly inventory decreased by 22.06% [19]. - **Battery Cell**: The prices of various battery cells remained mostly unchanged, the monthly production decreased by 15.91%, the weekly external sales factory inventory increased by 1.35%, and the export increased by 24.25% [19]. - **Component**: The prices of various components remained mostly unchanged, the monthly production decreased by 17.48%, the domestic inventory decreased by 51.73%, the European inventory decreased by 5.44%, and the export increased by 5.54% [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 0.45%, the average cost of the polysilicon industry remained unchanged, the monthly supply decreased by 14.48%, the monthly consumption decreased by 10.37%, and the monthly balance changed by - 39.38% [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon main contracts and the price spread between 421 and 553 [21][22]. - **Polysilicon Disk Price Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of polysilicon main contract prices, trading volumes, and basis [24][25]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in warehouses and ports, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipt volume [27][28][29]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of industrial silicon weekly production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise opening rates [31][32][33]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: The report shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [38][39][40]. - **Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets for industrial silicon, including production, consumption, import, and export [42][43][46]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organosilicon**: The report shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [48][49][50][51][53][54][55]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: The report shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy [56][57][59][60][61]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: The report shows the cost, price, inventory, production, demand, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, as well as the trends of photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [66][67][69][70][72][73][75][76][78][79][81][82][84][85][87][88][89][90].

中信建投证券研报指出，2025年以来，受到低迷的产品价格影响，合盛硅业盈利有所下滑。但一方面目 前公司主要产品价格都在底部，可以说价格继续下行的空间已经不大。另一方面，25年下半年以来，在 有机硅、多晶硅行业均已经看到了"反内卷"相关政策或举措的落地。综合而言，认为行业景气度将逐步 回暖，带动公司盈利的逐步回升。公司作为硅行业龙头，仍然有充分投资价值。目前产业链景气度仍然 低迷，但反内卷之下，行业反转的曙光已现，后续可预期公司聚焦在优势的工业硅、有机硅业务，且盈 利随着行业转暖不断改善，债务问题也有望在进一步的盈利回升、股权融资之下得到有效缓解。维持对 公司的"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since 2025, the profitability of Hoshine Silicon Industry has declined due to sluggish product prices, but the current prices are at a low point with limited room for further decline [1] Industry Summary - The organic silicon and polysilicon industries have seen the implementation of "anti-involution" policies or measures since the second half of 2025, suggesting a gradual recovery in industry prosperity [1] - The overall industry environment remains weak, but signs of a turnaround are emerging under the anti-involution context [1] Company Summary - As a leading company in the silicon industry, Hoshine Silicon Industry still holds significant investment value [1] - The company is expected to focus on its strengths in industrial silicon and organic silicon businesses, with profitability improving as the industry warms up [1] - Debt issues are anticipated to be effectively alleviated through further profit recovery and equity financing [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply increased last week, demand remained weak, costs in Xinjiang decreased during the wet season, and it is expected to oscillate between 8305 - 8695 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is expected to increase in August, demand shows signs of decline but may rebound later, and it is expected to oscillate between 47790 - 50610 [9][11]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, making the downward trend difficult to change [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% week - on - week decrease. Demand is persistently low [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passed 553 was 2354 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On August 1st, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 1050 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 540,000 tons, a 0.93% week - on - week increase; sample enterprise inventory was 171,450 tons, a 3.40% week - on - week decrease; major port inventory was 119,000 tons, a 0.83% week - on - week decrease [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling is decreasing and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support is increasing, and it is expected to oscillate between 8305 - 8695 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% week - on - week increase. The scheduled production in August is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 11GW, a 1.78% week - on - week decrease; inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% week - on - week increase. Silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9500 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On August 1st, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 229,000 tons, a 5.76% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [13]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling continues to increase, demand shows signs of decline but may rebound later, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to oscillate between 47790 - 50610 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased, with the 09 contract down 2.97% week - on - week [19]. - Spot prices of some products remained stable, while the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 1.02% [19]. - Social inventory increased by 0.93% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 3.41% week - on - week, and major port inventory decreased by 0.83% week - on - week [19]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts decreased, and the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable [21]. - Weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and inventory decreased by 22.06% week - on - week [21]. - Monthly battery cell output increased by 1.90% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 24.25% [21]. - Monthly component output increased by 1.73% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 8.44% [21]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show historical price and basis changes [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical inventory changes of different regions and ports [27]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical production and capacity utilization changes of sample enterprises [29]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical price changes of main production areas' electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrodes, and some reducing agents [34]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends show the historical cost and profit changes of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the historical supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations [38][41]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon trends show the production, price, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [44]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy trends show the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloys [52]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon trends show the cost, price, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other aspects of polysilicon [62]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component composition cost - profit trends (210mm) show the cost and profit trends of 210mm component compositions [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends show the trends of new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and solar power generation [81].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].