1月9日，碳中和50ETF（159861）盘中涨超1.5%，锂电供需改善与储能转型引关注。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 天风证券指出，锂行业经历3年调整期，供需基本面加速改善，价格已从6万/吨以下回升至13万以上。 需求侧动力电池构筑基本盘，储能因经济性成为新增长极，固态电池等新技术或进一步提升锂单耗。供 应端增速预计下行，西澳锂矿产量同比持平，非洲矿及南美盐湖新增产能逐步释放，但国内锂云母因矿 证问题短期扰动较大。钴方面，刚果金配额政策导致供给大幅收紧，2025年配额仅9.66万吨（同比降 56%），中长期供需或转向紧平衡，钴价中枢有望提升。稀土永磁领域，供给格局持续优化，《稀土管 理条例》落地推动行业整合，需求端新能源汽车占比提升至42%，节能电机、人形机器人等新应用打开 长期成长空间。 碳中和50ETF（159861）跟踪的是环保50指数（930614），该指数从中国A股市场中选取涉及清洁能 源、节能减排、污染治理等环保相关业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映环保产业代表性企业的 整体表现。环保50指数精选50只成分股，覆盖环境监测、资源回收利用等全产业链环节，旨在体现环保 领域具有技术优势和核心竞争 ...

Group 1 - Magnesium alloy is an ideal lightweight material with good casting properties and shock resistance, making it suitable for large automotive structural components and robotics applications [1][2] - The current magnesium-to-aluminum ratio is at a historical low, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of magnesium alloys, and supply-demand tightening is expected to drive magnesium prices upward in the long term [1][3] - The production capacity utilization rate of primary magnesium in China is low, and the anti-involution policy is expected to promote high-quality development in the magnesium industry [2][3] Group 2 - The application of magnesium alloys in the automotive sector is expanding, with large magnesium alloy automotive components being increasingly utilized, achieving over 50 kg per vehicle [2] - The commercial progress of humanoid robots is anticipated to be a core driver for long-term demand growth for magnesium alloys [2][4] - The demand for rare earth elements, particularly neodymium and praseodymium, is expected to grow due to the increasing needs from electric vehicles, air conditioning, and consumer electronics [3][4] Group 3 - The price of praseodymium and neodymium has remained strong, with significant price increases noted recently, driven by robust downstream demand and tight upstream supply [4] - The production of new energy vehicles in China is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 45.4% expected by mid-2025 [4] - The humanoid robot sector is projected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 75.0% from 2024 to 2035, indicating substantial future demand for rare earth materials [4]

Core Viewpoint - Global copper supply is facing disruptions, particularly due to incidents at the El Teniente copper mine in Chile, which will affect future production capacity increases. Additionally, Zambia's copper output has declined in Q2 due to acid leaks and lower ore grades. Despite being in a low-demand season, strong demand from the power grid and new energy sectors, along with low domestic social inventory, is supporting copper prices. The expectation of a stable increase in copper prices is bolstered by supply constraints, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the upcoming demand peak in September and October. Furthermore, the domestic rare earth industry is experiencing strong demand, leading to rising prices, particularly in the permanent magnet sector, which is expected to see performance improvements by Q3 2025 [1]. Group 1 - Global copper supply disruptions are ongoing, with Chile's El Teniente mine facing capacity issues due to accidents [1] - Chile has lowered its copper production forecast for this year to 5.58 million tons, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, down from a previously projected 3% [1] - Zambia's Q2 copper production has declined due to acid leaks and lower ore grades [1] Group 2 - Despite being in a low-demand season, demand from the power grid and new energy sectors remains resilient, supporting copper prices [1] - Domestic social inventory is at a low level, maintaining a premium in the spot market for copper [1] - The expectation of stable copper price increases is supported by supply constraints, potential Fed interest rate cuts, and the upcoming demand peak in September and October [1] Group 3 - Domestic large manufacturers are intensively bidding, and the tightening of rare earth export controls has led to increased overseas orders for magnetic materials [1] - The demand for permanent magnets is strong, with some companies extending production schedules to mid-October [1] - The tightening of rare earth supply controls and strong downstream demand are driving continuous price increases in rare earth materials [1] - The permanent magnet industry is expected to see performance improvements driven by volume and price increases by Q3 2025 [1]