汽车 2026 年度策略 领先大市-A(维持) 汽车板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：常闻 短期承压不改长期趋势；趋势为王抓住确定性 2026 年 3 月 2 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 投资要点： 合金多行业应用持续开拓-镁合金月报 （202601） 2026.2.12 【山证汽车】多重驱动、多点爆发；镁 合 金 时 代 加 速 到 来 - 轻 量 化 专 题 2026.1.19 刘斌 执业登记编码：S0760524030001 邮箱：liubin3@sxzq.com 贾国琛 执业登记编码：S0760525120001 邮箱：jiaguochen@sxzq.com 2025 年我国汽车产销量平稳增长，2026 年虽然短期承压但不改长期向 好趋势。2025 年，我国汽车产销量为 3453.1 和 3440 万辆，分别同比+10.4% 和+9.4%。2026 年 1 月，因为新能源汽车购置税、以旧换新等政策调整，乘 用车销量，特别是新能源汽呈车现销一量定压力，但我们认为中国汽车行业 整体平稳发展的趋势没有改变。国内市场，内需政策仍然会有力支持汽车行 业发展，在北京、上海等限购地区与三四线城市，汽车消费仍有释放空间。 ...

【山证汽车】多重驱动、多点爆发；镁 合 金 时 代 加 速 到 来 - 轻 量 化 专 题 2026.1.19 刘斌 执业登记编码：S0760524030001 邮箱：liubin3@sxzq.com 贾国琛 执业登记编码：S0760525120001 汽车 2026 年度策略 领先大市-A(维持) 汽车板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：常闻 合金多行业应用持续开拓-镁合金月报 （202601） 2026.2.12 邮箱：jiaguochen@sxzq.com 短期承压不改长期趋势；趋势为王抓住确定性 2026 年 3 月 2 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 投资要点： 2025 年我国汽车产销量平稳增长，2026 年虽然短期承压但不改长期向 好趋势。2025 年，我国汽车产销量为 3453.1 和 3440 万辆，分别同比+10.4% 和+9.4%。2026 年 1 月，因为新能源汽车购置税、以旧换新等政策调整，乘 用车销量，特别是新能源汽车销量呈现一定压力，但我们认为中国汽车行业 整体平稳发展的趋势没有改变。国内市场，内需政策仍然会有力支持汽车行 业发展，在北京、上海等限购地区与三四线城市，汽车消费仍有释放空间。 ...

从工业机械臂到人形机器人，从伺服电机到精密减速器，机器人对金属材料的需求呈现出 "量级跃 升"与"品质苛求" 的双重特征。这不仅是一场制造业的变革，更是一场波及上游矿业的"金属革命"。 一、 机器人的"骨骼"：轻量化金属的三国演义 机器人的第一个需求是"动起来"，而且要"动得轻巧、动得精准"。这对其结构材料提出了极高要求。 （来源：矿业俱乐部） 当全球的目光聚焦于锂、钴、镍这些能源金属时，另一场更深刻的金属需求革命正在悄然酝酿——机器 人产业的爆发，正在重塑多种基础金属的需求曲线。 铝合金：轻量化的主力军 工业机器人的大臂、小臂、基座，人形机器人的躯干骨架，绝大多数采用高强度铝合金。铝的密度仅为 钢的三分之一，却能提供足够的结构强度。全球机器人产业每年消耗的铝合金已超过50万吨，且以每年 15%以上的速度增长。 更关键的是，机器人用铝不是普通的建筑铝型材，而是高强高韧的航空级铝合金。这要求上游铝企具备 精准的合金配方控制和热处理工艺，而非简单的熔铸产能。 镁合金：更轻的下一站 在需要极致轻量化的末端执行器、手机式外壳等部件，镁合金正在取代铝合金。镁的密度比铝还轻三分 之一，且具有优异的减震性能和电磁屏蔽特性。 ...

Core Insights - The overall magnesium price increased in January 2026, with magnesium ingot (1) averaging 18,127.50 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.50% and a month-on-month increase of 5.24% [1] - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 0.75, primarily due to a significant increase in aluminum prices driven by demand from emerging industries [2] - The magnesium alloy sector showed resilience with a 4.51% year-on-year increase in exports, despite an overall decline in magnesium product exports [2] Price Tracking - In January 2026, the average price of aluminum (A00) was 24,085.50 yuan/ton, up 20.24% year-on-year and 9.77% month-on-month [1] - The magnesium market supply was relatively balanced, with stable prices supported by supply and steady demand from essential needs, leading to a positive market outlook [1] Industry Dynamics - The Shenzhou 20 return capsule utilized a magnesium-lithium alloy operation platform, significantly reducing weight and achieving new breakthroughs in aerospace applications [3] - A strategic cooperation was established between Bole Intelligent and Anhui Liheng for the supply of 37 large magnesium alloy semi-solid injection molding machines, indicating rapid expansion into large integrated structural components for electric vehicles [3] - Three key magnesium industry standards will be implemented starting February 1, 2026, marking a new phase in energy conservation and environmental governance in the magnesium smelting industry [4] Important Company Announcements - Baowu Magnesium Industry forecasted a net loss of 10-20 million yuan for 2025, primarily due to declining magnesium prices impacting profitability [6] - Yian Technology projected a net loss of 13-18 million yuan for 2025, attributed to increased investments in new sectors and currency appreciation affecting export profits [6] Investment Recommendations - Companies with full industry chain layouts such as Baowu Magnesium Industry are recommended for attention [7] - Companies with high magnesium alloy business ratios and strong elasticity like Xingyuan Zhuomei are also highlighted [7] - Equipment manufacturers benefiting from increased capital expenditures in component enterprises, such as Yizhiming, are suggested for consideration [7]

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,134.02, a slight increase of 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.86% to 14,283.00 [4]. Industry Commentary: Automotive - In January 2026, the average price of aluminum (A00) was 24,085.50 RMB/ton, up 20.24% year-on-year and 9.77% month-on-month. The average price of magnesium ingots (1) was 18,127.50 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.50% and a month-on-month increase of 5.24%. The magnesium market supply was relatively balanced, leading to stable prices [6]. - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio fell to 0.75, marking a historical low, primarily due to a significant increase in aluminum prices driven by demand from emerging industries such as photovoltaics and energy storage. This trend highlights the cost advantages of magnesium alloys, which are expected to see increased application [6]. - In 2025, China's total magnesium product exports reached 447,600 tons, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year, with export value dropping by 17.15% to approximately 1.069 billion USD. However, magnesium alloy exports grew by 4.51% year-on-year, indicating a structural shift towards high-value-added products [6]. Company Commentary: Juguang Technology (688167.SH) - Juguang Technology projected a net loss of 42 to 32 million RMB for 2025, a reduction in loss by 76.0% to 81.7% year-on-year. The company expects a net loss of 78 to 68 million RMB after excluding non-recurring items, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 57.2% to 62.7% [8]. - The company reported a revenue increase of approximately 40% due to higher shipments in optical communication and consumer electronics, with a gross margin improvement driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [10]. - Juguang Technology's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 613 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with significant contributions from laser optical components and optical solutions for automotive applications [10]. Company Commentary: Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Aishuo Co. announced a projected net loss of 130 to 180 million RMB for 2025, primarily due to increased investments in new technologies and the impact of currency appreciation on export profits [12]. - The company has secured a patent authorization from Maxeon for its BC solar cell technology, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in overseas markets [14]. - Aishuo's BC components have demonstrated superior efficiency and performance, with a significant increase in sales volume and a strong order backlog, particularly in high-value markets [17]. Industry Commentary: Photovoltaic Sector - The price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.0 RMB/kg, while silicon wafer prices saw a decline, with 182-183.75mm N-type wafers averaging 1.10 RMB/piece, down 12.0% week-on-week [16]. - The market for battery cells is experiencing high prices with low transaction volumes, indicating a potential stabilization in the short term [16]. - Aishuo's BC components are priced at a premium compared to TOPCon components, reflecting their advanced technology and market demand [19].

Core Viewpoint - The magnesium market is expected to maintain a balanced supply in January 2026, with stable prices supported by supply-side stability and steady demand, leading to a gradual increase in magnesium prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, the average price of aluminum (A00) was 24,085.50 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.24% and a month-on-month increase of 9.77%. The average price of magnesium ingots (1) was 18,127.50 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 1.50% and a month-on-month increase of 5.24% [2]. - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio fell to 0.75 in January, marking a historical low, primarily due to a significant increase in aluminum prices driven by demand from emerging industries such as photovoltaics and energy storage [3]. Group 2: Export Trends - In 2025, the total export volume of various magnesium products from China reached 447,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.65%. The total export value was approximately 1.069 billion USD, reflecting a substantial year-on-year decline of 17.15% [4]. - The export of magnesium ingots was 251,300 tons, down 5.53% year-on-year, with an average export price of 15,757 CNY/ton, which is about 743 CNY lower than the domestic average [4]. - Conversely, magnesium alloy exports were relatively strong, totaling 99,600 tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, indicating a structural growth in this segment despite overall weak overseas magnesium demand [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include Baowu Magnesium Industry (002182.SZ) for its full industry chain layout, Xingyuan Zhuomei (301398.SZ) for its high proportion of magnesium alloy business, and Yizhim (300415.SZ) benefiting from increased capital expenditure by component manufacturers [5]. - Additional companies to watch include Yian Technology (300328.SZ), Yongmaotai (605208.SH), and Xinyuan Zhizao (600615.SH), which are involved in magnesium alloy components [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the magnesium alloy sector, indicating a leading performance compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio has reached a historical low, highlighting the economic advantages of magnesium alloys as their applications continue to expand across multiple industries [2]. - In January 2026, the average price of aluminum was 24,085.50 CNY/ton, up 20.24% year-on-year and 9.77% month-on-month, while magnesium ingot averaged 18,127.50 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.50% year-on-year increase and a 5.24% month-on-month increase [2]. - The magnesium market is experiencing a balanced supply, with stable prices supported by steady demand, leading to a positive market outlook [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2025, China's total magnesium product exports reached 447,600 tons, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year, with export value dropping 17.15% to approximately 1.069 billion USD [3]. - Magnesium ingot exports fell by 5.53% to 251,300 tons, while magnesium alloy exports grew by 4.51% to 99,600 tons, indicating a structural growth in high-value-added segments [3]. Industry Dynamics - The implementation of three key magnesium industry standards on February 1, 2026, marks a new phase in energy conservation and environmental governance within the magnesium smelting industry [6]. - The Shenzhou 20 return capsule utilized a magnesium-lithium alloy operation platform, showcasing advancements in aerospace applications with significant weight reduction [5]. Company Announcements - Baowu Magnesium Industry forecasts a net loss of 10-20 million CNY for 2025, primarily due to declining magnesium prices impacting profitability [7]. - Yian Technology anticipates a net loss of 13-18 million CNY, attributed to increased investments in new alloy sectors and currency fluctuations affecting export profits [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with comprehensive industry chain layouts such as Baowu Magnesium Industry, and those with high magnesium alloy business ratios like Xingyuan Zhuomei, as well as equipment suppliers benefiting from increased capital expenditures in component manufacturing [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the magnesium alloy sector, indicating a leading performance compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio has reached a historical low, highlighting the economic advantages of magnesium alloys as their applications continue to expand across multiple industries [2]. - In January 2026, magnesium prices increased slightly, while aluminum prices surged, driven by demand from emerging industries such as photovoltaics and energy storage, leading to a favorable market environment for magnesium alloys [2]. - The export volume of magnesium products in 2025 decreased by 2.65% year-on-year, with a significant drop in export value by 17.15%. However, magnesium alloy exports showed a growth of 4.51%, indicating a structural shift towards high-value-added products in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The magnesium market in January 2026 showed a balanced supply, with stable prices supported by steady demand [2]. - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio fell to 0.75, a decrease of 0.14 year-on-year, reflecting the competitive edge of magnesium alloys [2]. Industry Developments - The implementation of three new industry standards for magnesium processing began on February 1, 2026, marking a significant step towards energy conservation and environmental governance in the magnesium smelting industry [6]. - The aerospace sector has seen advancements with the use of magnesium-lithium alloy platforms, which significantly reduce weight and enhance performance [5]. Company Announcements - Baowu Magnesium Industry reported a projected net loss for 2025 due to declining magnesium prices, while Yian Technology also forecasted losses attributed to increased investments in new technologies and currency fluctuations [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with comprehensive industry chain layouts such as Baowu Magnesium Industry, and those with high exposure to magnesium alloy business like Xingyuan Zhuomei, as well as equipment suppliers benefiting from increased capital expenditures in the sector [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the rising aluminum prices are positively impacting the magnesium alloy market due to its enhanced cost-effectiveness, especially after the new national standards for electric bicycles were released [1] - Global aluminum prices have been steadily increasing and reaching new highs, while magnesium alloy prices remain low, leading to a significant increase in demand for magnesium alloys [1] - Since October, the company's magnesium alloy sales have increased by approximately 10% from the previous base, achieving a historical high [1] Group 2 - The usage of magnesium in electric two-wheelers is expected to continue to rise rapidly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The trend of lightweighting in the automotive sector is accelerating, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, with several major automakers actively promoting the application of magnesium alloys [1] - The penetration of magnesium products in vehicles is increasing, with one automaker currently using over 20 kg of magnesium alloy per vehicle, and future applications could see usage rise to 50-100 kg as larger magnesium die-cast components are integrated [1] Group 3 - The application scenarios for magnesium alloys are expanding, including areas such as instrument panel brackets, electric drive housings, and rear floors, indicating unprecedented development opportunities for magnesium alloy automotive die-cast components [1]

Core Viewpoint - Baowu Magnesium Industry (002182) has a diverse business portfolio that includes magnesium materials, magnesium products, aluminum products, mineral products, and construction template businesses [1] Group 1: Business Segments - The company’s main products consist of magnesium alloys, deep-processed magnesium alloy products, aluminum alloys, deep-processed aluminum alloy products, intermediate alloys, and metallic strontium [1]