[Table_Title] 华安国证港股通消费主题 ETF（159285）：促服 务消费若干措施出台，港股通消费迎配置良机 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 量化金融研究丨深度报告 [Table_Summary] 国证港股通消费主题指数，为反映港股通范围内消费领域相关上市公司的运行特征，丰富指数 化投资工具，编制国证港股通消费主题指数，该指数是按相应的指数编制规则采用派氏加权法 逐日连锁计算所得出来的。该指数发布于 2022 年 4 月 11 日，指数简称：港股通消费，基日为 2014 年 12 月 30 日，基点为 1000 点。华安国证港股通消费主题 ETF（159285）采用指数化 投资策略，紧密跟踪标的指数，追求跟踪偏离度和跟踪误差最小化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 覃川桃 邓元哲 SAC：S0490513030001 SAC：S0490524080006 SFC：BUT353 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 华安国证港 ...

Core Insights - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 80.62 billion from August 11 to 15, 2025, with significant investments in non-bank financials, hardware equipment, pharmaceutical biology, software services, and real estate II sectors, totaling a net inflow of HKD 130.61 billion across the top five industries [2][5][30] - On August 15, 2025, southbound funds achieved a single-day net inflow of HKD 358.76 billion, marking the highest level since 2018 [2][5][30] Industry Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.65% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.52% during the period from August 11 to 15, 2025, with healthcare, information technology, and materials sectors leading the gains, while utilities lagged [5][12][27] - The top five industries for southbound fund inflows were: - Non-bank financials: HKD 47.23 billion - Hardware equipment: HKD 37.1 billion - Pharmaceutical biology: HKD 22.62 billion - Software services: HKD 14.31 billion - Real estate II: HKD 9.36 billion [2][5][30] Fund Flow Dynamics - Southbound funds showed a divergence from foreign institutional flows, with southbound investments focusing on non-bank pharmaceuticals while foreign capital targeted media and software sectors [5][30] - From August 1 to 15, 2025, southbound funds had a net inflow of HKD 543.79 billion, primarily into software services, hardware equipment, non-bank financials, consumer discretionary retail, and pharmaceutical biology [5][45] Sectoral Trends - The report highlighted that the inflow of southbound funds was concentrated in technology sectors, while foreign capital increased its stake in pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals [5][45] - The major outflows were observed in sectors such as telecommunications services, durable consumer goods, and automotive components [5][30][45]

Core Conclusions - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector has shown impressive performance in the first half of the year, but has entered a phase of digestion and volatility since mid-June [1][8] - The macro logic supporting the new consumption trend is based on the historical shift in consumer behavior observed in Japan, where consumption has transitioned from mass-market to personalized and rational consumption [1][20] - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong exhibits higher growth potential compared to the A-share market, driven by evolving consumer concepts and demographic changes [1][30] Current Phase of New Consumption - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is currently experiencing a phase of heat digestion, following a significant rise in the first half of the year, with notable stocks like Pop Mart, Old Puhuang, and Mixue Group seeing an average price increase of 247% [8][9] - The shift in consumer focus towards experience and participation, characterized by "self-consumption" and "social consumption," has led to a surge in popularity for categories such as trendy toys, tea drinks, and luxury jewelry [8][9] - Since mid-June, the new consumption stocks have faced a correction, with the average decline of the "three golden flowers" reaching 25% [9][17] Mid-term Support for New Consumption - Despite the recent volatility, the report suggests that the macroeconomic logic supporting the new consumption trend remains intact, with historical parallels drawn from Japan's consumption evolution [20][22] - The report references Maslow's hierarchy of needs, indicating that as income rises, consumer demand is shifting from material to spiritual needs, reflecting a broader trend towards personalized and rational consumption [20][30] - The ongoing demographic changes and the evolution of consumer concepts in China are expected to sustain the growth of the new consumption sector in the long term [30][31] Advantages of Hong Kong's New Consumption Assets - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is characterized by a higher proportion of innovative consumption compared to the A-share market, which is dominated by traditional sectors like liquor and home appliances [33][35] - The financial performance of Hong Kong's new consumption stocks is robust, with projected revenue growth of 54% for key players in 2024, significantly outpacing the A-share market [35][39] - The report anticipates continued inflows into Hong Kong's new consumption sector from public funds, with an estimated total inflow of 300 to 450 billion yuan expected in 2025 [35][41] Future Trends and Opportunities - The report identifies several emerging trends in consumer behavior, including the rise of the Z generation, single households, and the aging population, which are driving demand for personalized and emotional consumption experiences [31][47] - The pet economy is highlighted as a rapidly growing sector, with a projected market size of 811.4 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing emotional needs among consumers [47][54] - The report emphasizes that policy support for consumption is likely to enhance consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the areas of self-consumption and value-for-money products [47][48]