证券研究报告|公司深度研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 基地班+直通车双轮驱动 [Table_Title2] 华图山鼎(300492) [Table_Summary] ► 投资建议 迎合考公培训市场返乡化、多科化趋势，公司在基地班基 础上推出打破考试界限、依据学科类型的直通车班型、同时依 托租金优势、规模效应优势盈利能力更强，我们预计截至 26Q1 直通车基地班达到 70 多家，未来 3 年有望达到 320 家左右、对 应利润 10 亿元左右。预计 2025-2027 年公司营业总收入分别为 33.13/39.4/46.76 亿元，同比增长 17%/19%/19%；归母净利润分 别为 3.24/4.0/5.96 亿元，同比增长 512%/23%/49%，对应 2025- 2027 年 EPS 为 1.65/2.03/3.03 元，26 年 1 月 27 日公司收盘价 85.92 元对应 PE 为 52/42/28X。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ► 历史回顾：25H 教育业务净利率恢复至 12% 公司为中国招录考试培训龙头之一，2014 年于新三 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 89.20 CNY [5][16]. Core Insights - The company is leveraging AI technology and a city-based base sinking strategy, in collaboration with Fenbi, to accelerate its market share growth and reshape the public examination industry [2][12]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 312 million, 438 million, and 543 million CNY respectively, and EPS of 1.58, 2.23, and 2.76 CNY [12][16]. - The strategic partnership with Fenbi is anticipated to enhance competitive barriers and operational efficiency in the vocational education market [12][21]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 247 million CNY in 2023 to 5,159 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 131.3% in 2024 [4][13]. - The net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 92 million CNY in 2023 to a profit of 543 million CNY by 2027, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [4][13]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 53.48% in 2024 to 57.16% by 2027, driven by brand effect and operational efficiency [19][21]. Industry Analysis - The number of college graduates in China is expected to exceed 12 million by 2025, creating a sustained demand for public examination training [32][46]. - The public examination training market is projected to reach approximately 151 billion CNY in 2025, with a potential growth to 237 billion CNY by 2030 [46][47]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing number of civil service examination candidates, which has shown a consistent upward trend [41][46].

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape of the civil service exam training market is evolving as two leading companies, Fenbi and Huatu, have announced a strategic partnership to mitigate fierce competition and enhance user experience [2][4][20]. Group 1: Strategic Partnership - Fenbi and Huatu have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to explore collaboration in investment, corporate governance, technology development, and channel cooperation [5][6]. - The partnership aims to leverage each company's strengths, with Huatu's extensive offline presence complementing Fenbi's online capabilities, thereby improving operational efficiency [6][7]. - Both companies will advocate for industry self-regulation and user oversight, aiming to establish industry benchmarks and combat unethical practices [7][8]. Group 2: Market Context - The civil service exam training market has become increasingly competitive, with many institutions employing aggressive pricing strategies, leading to a chaotic market environment [2][19]. - The market for vocational exam training in China is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2026, with civil service exam training alone expected to reach 20 billion yuan [17]. - The increasing number of graduates seeking stable employment has intensified competition in the civil service exam sector, resulting in lower pass rates and a crowded training market [17][18]. Group 3: Company Performance - Fenbi has faced declining revenues, with a projected income of 27.90 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.66% year-on-year, and an 8.50% decline in the first half of the year [17]. - Huatu has shown resilience, with a 15.65% year-on-year revenue growth to 24.64 billion yuan in the first three quarters, surpassing its competitor, Zhonggong Education [19]. - Zhonggong Education, once the market leader, has seen its revenue shrink from a peak of 112 billion yuan in 2020 to 26.27 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a significant market shift [19].

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape of the civil service exam training market is intensifying, leading to a strategic partnership between two leading companies, Fenbi and Huatu, aimed at reducing vicious competition and promoting high-quality development in the industry [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The civil service exam training market has become highly competitive, with a significant number of candidates vying for limited positions, resulting in a booming yet chaotic training market [1]. - The market is characterized by aggressive tactics from training institutions, including low pricing and guarantees of passing, which have led to a lack of quality and increased competition [2]. - The civil service exam training market in China is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2026, with the civil service exam segment alone expected to reach 20 billion yuan [20]. Group 2: Strategic Partnership - On December 12, Fenbi and Huatu announced a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance the competitive environment of the civil service exam training market, improve user experience, and achieve resource complementarity [3][4]. - The partnership will explore collaboration in investment, corporate governance, technology development, and channel cooperation, including potential equity cooperation and joint ventures [4][5]. - Both companies aim to leverage their respective strengths—Huatu's extensive offline presence and Fenbi's online technology and user traffic—to improve operational efficiency and raise industry entry barriers [5][7]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Despite the strategic partnership, the market reaction was lukewarm, with both companies' stock prices declining following the announcement [8]. - Fenbi has faced challenges in recent years, with revenue declining due to intensified competition and the rise of low-cost individual teachers on social media platforms [17][22]. - Huatu, while experiencing growth, is also dealing with legal issues related to its IPO process, which could impact its control and financial stability [17]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The civil service exam training market is fragmented, with many players leading to low concentration; the top five companies only hold a combined market share of 22.1% [22]. - Huatu has seen a revenue increase of 15.65% year-on-year, reaching 24.64 billion yuan, surpassing the struggling market leader, Zhonggong Education, which has seen a significant revenue decline [22]. - The partnership between Fenbi and Huatu may signal the beginning of a new round of industry reshuffling, as both companies seek to consolidate their positions in a challenging market [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Fenbi Co., Ltd., reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to intense competition in the exam training industry, while also emphasizing its strategic shift towards AI-enabled products to capture market share [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Fenbi's revenue was RMB 1.492 billion, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, and net profit was RMB 226.6 million, down 18.39% [1]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the reporting period amounted to RMB 973.6 million [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from training services was RMB 1.2949 billion, a decline of 6.1% year-on-year, attributed to competitive pressures in the exam training sector [1]. - Sales from independent textbook and study material sales decreased by 21.7% to RMB 197 million [1]. - Small class training course revenue was RMB 1.0325 billion, accounting for 79.7% of training service revenue [1]. Online Learning Products - Revenue from Fenbi's online learning products, including membership packages and beginner training camps, was approximately RMB 46.9 million [2]. - Traditional large class training courses generated revenue of about RMB 192.8 million, with typical class sizes exceeding 1,000 students [2]. - The newly launched AI-based large class course, priced at RMB 399, sold approximately 50,000 enrollments, generating around RMB 20 million [2][3]. AI Product Development - The AI large class course is designed to be more affordable and efficient compared to traditional courses, with plans to expand offerings to more subjects by 2025 [3]. - The company is also developing an AI interview evaluation feature to enhance students' interview preparation [3]. Fund Utilization - Fenbi announced a change in the use of proceeds from its global offering, allocating 100% of unutilized net proceeds (approximately HKD 113.2 million) towards AI research and development [4]. - As of December 31, 2024, unutilized net proceeds were approximately HKD 60.8 million [4]. Market Outlook - The number of candidates passing the qualification review for the national examination increased by 12.6% year-on-year, indicating a growing market demand for public examination training [4]. - Despite the competitive landscape and price wars, the introduction of AI products is seen as a strong response to market challenges [4]. Stock Performance - As of August 29, Fenbi's stock price was HKD 3.12, reflecting a decline of 2.19%, with a total market capitalization of HKD 7 billion [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Fenbi (02469.HK) increased by 13.97% to HKD 3.670 as of the market close on August 19, reaching a nearly one-year high of HKD 3.930 during intraday trading [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Fenbi Limited is a non-degree vocational education training service provider in China, focusing on delivering high-quality vocational education through technology [1] - The company has developed a comprehensive suite of vocational exam training products and services, including high-quality live or recorded online training courses, supplemented by self-study materials and tools [1] - Fenbi has established itself as a well-known brand in China's vocational exam training industry, catering to adult learners seeking to advance in public service and various professional fields [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - On the trading day mentioned, the net inflow of funds into Fenbi was HKD 151.45 million, with no specific data provided for the inflow and outflow amounts [1]