跨年布局的"前哨战"：震荡是风险还是机会？ 随着年内行情步入尾声，公募基金的年末"答卷季"却上演了截然不同的剧情。 (相关资料图) 一方面是部分绩优基金态度趋于谨慎，通过主动调仓与严格限购锁定全年收益，净值波动显著收窄；另 一方面是次新基金则积极建仓，展现出"倒车接人"的进攻姿态。 这一攻守分化的格局，凸显了机构投资者对后市短期判断的战略分歧，也使得年末的市场博弈更趋复 杂。有人降仓、调仓控制回撤，亦有人直言"下跌正酝酿买入窗口"。随着全年业绩冲刺进入最后阶段， 震荡之中藏着哪些确定性布局密码？ 年末攻防显分化 Wind数据显示，截至12月3日，在已有数据的4686只主动权益基金（仅计算初始基金，下同）中，11月 以来的平均收益率为-2.67%，区间首尾业绩差距仅26个百分点。这一波动幅度不仅较10月31.48个百分 点的净值分化有所收窄，更与前三季度每月平均近50个百分点的涨跌幅形成悬殊对比。 值得注意的是，多只年内收益率超50%的绩优产品，单月振幅环比出现明显收窄，市场人士推测其基金 经理已实施调仓操作。 以11月21日行情为例，当日上证指数单日下跌2.45%，申万电子指数跌幅更是达到4.58%。年内累计 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 11 月 10 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 关注资本市场的估值切换行情 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.82%，沪深 300 股指期货上涨 0.48%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 1.31%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 3.95%；股份制银行理财预期 收益率收于 1.85%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率下跌 1BP 至 1.01%；十年国债 收益率上行 2BP 至 1.81%，活跃十年国债期货本周下跌 0.17%。 资产配置建议 本期观点（2025.11.9） | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注国内稳增长政策的落地情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注中美经贸磋商进展及其释放的重要信息 | 不变 | | 一年内 | = | 地缘关系仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注"增量"政策落实情况 | 超配 | | 债券 | - ...

Core Insights - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates a market style switch in early October, leading to a recovery in the food and beverage index, with snacks, beer, and health products showing significant gains [1] - Looking ahead to late October, the focus will shift to Q3 earnings reports, with companies in the new consumption sector expected to perform well, highlighting potential investment opportunities in high-performing stocks and sectors [1] - For Q4 2025, two key themes are suggested: first, a year-end valuation switch focusing on new consumption companies with solid fundamentals; second, attention to cyclical sectors with low valuations and supply clearing, as PPI improvements gradually transmit to CPI [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates a market style switch in early October, leading to a recovery in the food and beverage index, with snacks, beer, and health products showing significant gains. The trend of style switching is expected to continue, with a focus on third-quarter earnings reports in late October, particularly for companies in the new consumption sector that are anticipated to perform well [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.3% increase from October 1 to October 15, outperforming the Wind All A index by 2.1%, ranking 14th among 31 sub-industries [4]. - Eight out of ten sub-sectors achieved positive monthly returns, with snacks, beer, health products, and seasoning and fermentation products leading the gains at +3.5%, +3.1%, +2.9%, and +2.4% respectively [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The 2025 Autumn Sugar and Wine Fair took place from October 11 to 15 in Nanjing, featuring a predominance of small and medium brands, with health-oriented products continuing to drive innovation [1]. - In the liquor segment, there is a weak recovery in demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with high channel inventory indicating a prolonged destocking period [1][2]. - The beverage sector is seeing a high density of NFC juice layouts, with new coconut water brands emerging, while traditional categories are experiencing increased competition [2]. - The snack category is focusing on health trends, with growth in products emphasizing formula optimization and the introduction of traditional Chinese snacks [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Cost Analysis - As of October 15, the wholesale prices for various liquor brands showed slight recovery compared to September, but year-on-year comparisons indicate significant declines [3]. - Packaging material prices have varied, with glass and PET prices down by 4.6% and 13.7% respectively, while aluminum and cardboard prices have increased [3]. - Raw material costs for several key ingredients have decreased year-on-year, with notable declines in pork and quail egg prices, while palm oil and sunflower seed prices have increased [3].

Core Insights - The food and beverage index has shown recovery in early October due to a market style switch, with snacks, beer, and health products leading the gains [1] - The trend of style switching is expected to continue, with a focus on third-quarter earnings reports in late October [1] - Companies representing new consumption trends are anticipated to perform well, making them key stocks to watch [1] - For the fourth quarter of 2025, two key themes are suggested: 1) Year-end valuation switching focusing on new consumption companies with solid fundamentals; 2) Attention to cyclical stocks with low valuations and supply clearing as PPI improvements gradually transmit to CPI [1]

中国银河证券指出，10月上旬，市场风格切换下食品饮料指数迎来修复，板块内部零食、啤酒、保健品 涨幅靠前，我们认为后续风格切换趋势有望延续。展望10月下旬，市场重点将聚焦于三季报业绩，以新 消费方向为代表的公司具备较好业绩，相关绩优个股与板块可重点关注。展望四季度，我们建议关注二 条线索：1）年底的估值切换行情，关注新消费方向具备扎实基本面的标的；2）在PPI改善向CPI改善逐 渐传导的预期下，可重点关注估值低位+供给出清的顺周期方向。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Conclusions - In a bull market, the style is relatively stable in the early and late stages, but it tends to fluctuate in the mid-stage. Non-mainstream sectors may lead in the later stages of the bull market, influenced significantly by capital flow rather than performance realization, typically lasting 1-2 quarters [2][10][28] Historical Cases - During the 2005-2007 financial cycle bull market, from January to May 2007, small-cap growth stocks surged, with non-mainstream sectors like textiles, environmental protection, and pharmaceuticals leading the gains. This was attributed to accelerated capital inflow and a shift in market focus towards previously underperforming sectors [3][11][14] - In the 2013-2015 TMT bull market, the fourth quarter of 2014 saw large-cap value stocks outperform, with non-bank financials, construction, banking, and steel sectors leading. This shift was driven by significant inflows of retail capital and a change in focus from performance to valuation [19][21][27] Market Dynamics - Non-mainstream sectors tend to lead in the later stages of a bull market due to increased capital inflow, as mainstream sectors often reach high valuation levels, leading investors to seek undervalued sectors with high safety margins [3][28] - The performance of non-mainstream sectors may be supported by earnings growth, as seen in the textiles sector in early 2007, but there can also be instances where performance realization remains weak despite leading gains, such as in the construction and steel sectors in late 2014 [30][28] Current Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current market may be entering a main upward trend, with potential for style switching towards low-value sectors, particularly in banking and non-bank financials, as well as in low-valued electric equipment and cyclical stocks [37][38] - The financial sector is highlighted as having low overall valuations, with potential for rebound due to style switching and regulatory support for long-term capital inflows [39]