摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周 AI 应用中，海外 Claude 活跃度周均环比大幅提升，Gemini 与 ChatGPT 保持平稳；国内豆包持续上升，通 义止跌回稳。模型层面，深度求索于 8 月 21 日发布 DeepSeek-V3.1，引入混合推理架构，优化了智能体任务表 现并提升了思考效率，其 API 同步升级并开源了 Base 模型。该模型采用的 UE8M0 FP8 格式专为适配下一代国产 芯片设计，标志着国内 AI 软硬件协同进入新阶段。此外，一个性能强大的神秘模型"nano-banana"现身，社区 普遍猜测其为 Google 尚未发布的新品。 - 三星 HBM4 预计 11–12 月量产，缩小与 SK 海力士差距；SK 海力士已于 6 月实现初步量产并计划 10 月量产。三 星 HBM3E 本月底通过质测后将供货，并以大幅折扣抢市。美光亦已交付 HBM4 样品，2026 年产能基本售罄。 NVIDIA 则布局自研 HBM 基底芯片，寻求更强议价能力。整体看，HBM 市场进入技术升级与价格战并存阶段，格 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI application activity has seen a general increase overseas, while domestic applications remain stable, with notable growth in Doubao [10] - CoreWeave has become the first cloud service provider to deploy Nvidia's latest Blackwell Ultra AI chips, significantly enhancing AI training and inference efficiency, leading to a 6% increase in its stock price [11] - The smartphone storage market is undergoing structural changes driven by AI penetration, with NAND average capacity expected to reach 224GB and DRAM exceeding 8GB by 2025 [12] - In May 2025, China's smartphone sales reached approximately 24.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.11% [17] - Desktop computer sales in May 2025 were approximately 1.25 million units, down 15.52% year-on-year, while laptop sales were about 1.79 million units, up 11.82% year-on-year [23] Summary by Sections Overseas Market Review - AI application activity continues to rise overseas, while domestic applications remain stable [7] - CoreWeave's deployment of Nvidia Blackwell Ultra chips marks a significant advancement in AI infrastructure [11] - The smartphone storage supply-demand structure is being reshaped due to AI [12] Consumer Electronics Dynamics - In May 2025, China's smartphone market saw a year-on-year increase in sales [17] - Desktop sales declined while the laptop market showed recovery [23]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is committed to advancing comprehensive reform and innovation in Shenzhen, focusing on enhancing collaboration between industry, academia, and research institutions [1] Group 1: Support for Innovation and Reform - The Guangdong provincial government is fully supporting Shenzhen in establishing a comprehensive innovation system and mechanism [1] - Emphasis is placed on optimizing the collaborative model for tackling key core technologies and improving the mechanism for the transformation of scientific and technological achievements [1] - The government aims to reform educational methods, school management models, and support mechanisms in Shenzhen [1] Group 2: Specific Reform Measures - Specific reform tasks have been outlined at the provincial level, with clear points and implementation measures [1] - In the reform of the collaborative model for tackling key core technologies, the focus will be on improving the operational system of national laboratories and leveraging leading technology enterprises as "problem solvers" [1] - A provincial and municipal shared support mechanism for national laboratories in Guangdong will be established, along with innovative selection mechanisms for major scientific projects [1]