慕尼黑经济研究所商业景气指数被视为德国经济发展的风向标，对观察德国经济形势具有重要参考价 值。 （文章来源：新华社） 慕尼黑经济研究所所长克莱门斯·菲斯特说，在德企业对业务现状满意度整体下降，对未来几个月的前 景预期也明显趋于谨慎，这反映了它们对德国经济复苏的信心在下降。荷兰国际集团宏观研究主管卡斯 滕·布热斯基说，此前的乐观情绪正在消退。一方面，美国加征关税和欧元走强进一步加大德国出口压 力；另一方面，被寄予厚望的财政刺激措施尚未如期显现成效，德国仍缺乏提升竞争力的结构性改革。 新华财经柏林9月24日电（记者车云龙张毅荣）德国慕尼黑经济研究所24日公布的数据显示，经季节调 整后，德国9月商业景气指数从上月的88.9点降至87.7点，为今年1月以来首次下滑。 数据显示，构成商业景气指数的四项指标中，除建筑业指标环比上升外，制造业、服务业和贸易指标均 出现下降。其中，服务业指标降幅明显，尤其体现在运输和物流行业；制造业领域新订单持续减少。 ...

新华社柏林9月24日电（记者车云龙 张毅荣）德国慕尼黑经济研究所24日公布的数据显示，经季 节调整后，德国9月商业景气指数从上月的88.9点降至87.7点，为今年1月以来首次下滑。 数据显示，构成商业景气指数的四项指标中，除建筑业指标环比上升外，制造业、服务业和贸易指 标均出现下降。其中，服务业指标降幅明显，尤其体现在运输和物流行业；制造业领域新订单持续减 少。 慕尼黑经济研究所所长克莱门斯·菲斯特说，在德企业对业务现状满意度整体下降，对未来几个月 的前景预期也明显趋于谨慎，这反映了它们对德国经济复苏的信心在下降。荷兰国际集团宏观研究主管 卡斯滕·布热斯基说，此前的乐观情绪正在消退。一方面，美国加征关税和欧元走强进一步加大德国出 口压力；另一方面，被寄予厚望的财政刺激措施尚未如期显现成效，德国仍缺乏提升竞争力的结构性改 革。 慕尼黑经济研究所商业景气指数被视为德国经济发展的风向标，对观察德国经济形势具有重要参考 价值。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 ...

道琼斯工业指数下跌0.46%，标普500下跌0.30%，纳斯达克回落0.38%。下跌背后，几个重量级公司的 财报表现令人意外。联合健康集团发布的盈利预测低于市场预期，股价重挫7.5%，成为拖累道指的"重 灾区"；波音虽然亏损收窄，但未能赢得投资者信心，跌幅达4.4%。默克更是因延长对中国的HPV疫苗 出口暂停时间，收跌1.7%。这些公司属于传统的盈利支柱，一旦失速，市场信心便会迅速动摇。 短期调整或许只是风向的初步信号。在所有变量都未落定之前，市场将很难再现此前那种无惧利空的单 边上涨。投资者或许需要重新思考，涨势背后是否已埋下过热的隐忧。 DLSMARKETS认为财报不佳固然构成直接冲击，但市场真正纠结的，还是即将公布的美联储政策声 明。通胀路径、就业数据与增长预期之间的微妙平衡，让货币政策走向充满不确定性。投资者一方面希 望看到美联储继续"鸽派"维稳，另一方面又担心经济可能没有市场想象中强韧。一旦表态偏"鹰"，资金 可能重新定价风险资产。 周二，美国三大股指集体回落，市场情绪出现微妙转变。虽然此前标普500和纳斯达克指数不断刷新纪 录高位，但本轮调整暴露出投资者对盈利质量和政策前景的双重担忧。财报季如期而 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, the lowest since February, but still above the market expectation of 130,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, alleviating concerns about a sharp slowdown in the labor market [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Chief Economist Samuel Tombs warned that the current employment data may mask deeper issues, citing a significant downward revision of March's non-farm payrolls from 224,000 to 120,000 [3] - Tombs predicts that May's employment data may be revised down to around 100,000 in the upcoming August report, with an average downward revision of 30,000 since the beginning of 2023 [3] Group 3: Industry-Specific Employment Trends - Employment prospects in retail, wholesale, transportation, and logistics are bleak, with an expected reduction of about 50,000 jobs by year-end due to diminishing pre-tariff effects [5] - The NFIB reported that small business hiring intentions have dropped to the lowest level since May 2020, indicating potential future weakness in the job market [6] Group 4: Public Sector Employment - A wave of layoffs in the public sector is anticipated, with 59,000 federal jobs already eliminated and a reduction of 22,000 in May [8] - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.8% by December due to these trends [8]

Group 1: Core Insights - The visit of President Xi Jinping to Russia signifies the deepening of pragmatic cooperation between China and Russia, showcasing resilience and complementarity despite external challenges [1][2] - The bilateral trade volume between China and Russia reached $244.8 billion in 2024, marking a 1.9% year-on-year increase, with China maintaining its position as Russia's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years [2][4] - The strategic cooperation between the two nations is characterized by enhanced political trust, deepening strategic collaboration, and expanding cultural exchanges, reflecting their commitment to a multipolar world and a shared future [2][3] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - The pragmatic cooperation between China and Russia is showing strong momentum in emerging sectors such as technology innovation, automotive production, cross-border e-commerce, and medical equipment, indicating significant growth potential [4][5] - Traditional cooperation areas, including machinery manufacturing, heavy industry, aerospace, energy, and logistics, are expected to continue driving the strategic partnership forward [4][5] - New cooperation potentials are identified in complementary industrial sectors, with Russia excelling in raw materials and heavy machinery, while China leads in computer and precision equipment manufacturing [5][6] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - In the first three months of the year, the trade volume between China and Russia was $53.213 billion, reflecting a 6.6% year-on-year decline, although a significant increase of 16% was observed in March [6][7] - The decline in trade volume is attributed to seasonal factors and does not indicate a long-term trend, as both countries are committed to maintaining stable and predictable economic cooperation [6][7] - Despite challenges posed by external trade conflicts, the cooperation between China and Russia is expected to persist, with both nations aiming to establish a multipolar world [7][8]