7月按兵不动后，关于美联储是否会在9月降息的辩论，正变得日益激烈。 7月31日，中金公司的两篇研报从不同角度进行了剖析，为市场理解美联储的决策逻辑提供了两种关键 视角。中金宏观经济分析师肖捷文等认为，最新的信号指向美联储倾向于维持耐心，不会因特朗普施压 而降息。 中金首席海外策略分析师刘刚等则指出，市场可能误解了美联储的决策前提。降息并非必须等到通胀回 落，只要关税对通胀的"一次性"影响路径基本确定，美联储就可以行动。随着美国近期与多国达成关税 协定，这一路径正变得愈发清晰，为9月降息保留了可能性。这些观点并非相互矛盾，而是共同勾勒出 美联储在复杂的经济与政治环境下可能采取的行动路径。 通胀路径明朗化 9月 降息窗口仍在 中金公司研究部首席海外策略分析师刘刚等认为，美联储采取行动的条件正在成熟。市场普遍存在一个 误解，即认为美联储必须等到通胀数据明确回落后才能降息。但实际上，只要关税对通胀的影响路径基 本确定，美联储就可以提前行动。 首先，美联储本身存在降息的内在需求。数据显示，当前美国1.63%的实际利率显著高于约1%的自然 利率，这意味着货币政策对经济构成了限制。同时，经济增长和就业市场已出现"温和走弱" ...

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market is experiencing a dichotomy, with the Australian dollar unexpectedly rising amid expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, while the Japanese yen continues to weaken under the shadow of US-Japan trade tensions [1][3] - The Australian dollar's strength is attributed to the Reserve Bank of Australia's "dovish yet hawkish" stance, maintaining the cash rate at 3.85% and indicating that inflation risks are balanced, which led to a more than 1% increase against the US dollar [3] - In contrast, the Japanese yen is under pressure due to the announcement of a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea by President Trump, which has negatively impacted market expectations for Japanese exports and diminished the yen's traditional safe-haven appeal [3][4] Group 2 - The euro has reached a one-year high against the yen, reflecting global investors' preference for currencies from regions with clear economic policies and growth momentum, shifting away from traditional safe havens like the yen [4] - Trump's fluctuating policy stance complicates market expectations, with potential for renewed yen safe-haven attributes if trade tensions escalate or if the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is more dovish than anticipated [4] - The rebound of the Australian dollar and the decline of the yen are seen as structural changes in the currency market, influenced by complex policy signals and global macroeconomic expectations, indicating a prevailing trend of "stronger currencies remaining strong, while weaker currencies struggle" [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Polish central bank committee member Kotecki predicts that the benchmark interest rate may decrease to 4.75% by the end of 2025, with a potential drop to 4.5% if the inflation forecast in November indicates a lower trajectory [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Forecast** - The benchmark interest rate is expected to decline to 4.75% by the end of 2025 [1] - If the November inflation forecast shows a lower path, the rate could further decrease to 4.5% [1]