请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 行业 铜期货日报 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价冲高回落，隔夜英伟达强劲三季度报令美股止跌回升，市场情绪有所回暖， 不过美联储 10 月会议纪要显示大多数决策者反对 12 月再度降息，美元大涨，铜 价承压。日内现货跌 320 至 86435，现货升水跌 5，本周社库累库 0.07 万吨，虽 然铜价下跌明显，但下游拿货情绪一般。现货进口亏损扩大至 500 附近，比值下 降以及 LME0-3contango 小幅缩窄至 33，国内仓单和提单溢价均持平，洋山铜需 求也表现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The copper market is affected by repeated tariff policies and market sentiment is weak. The copper price is under pressure due to cooling demand, but the smelting end is tight and the macro - environment is mixed, so the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to whether the US economic data tonight will bring changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened high and closed slightly lower today. The US federal court stopped most of Trump's tariffs, but the US appellate court restored them. The market is numb to the repeated tariff policies. The US PCE price index will be announced tonight. The supply is expected to be tight. As of May 23, the TC/RC fees are still negative but the decline has slowed. The domestic refined copper production is at a high level and the supply tension has not been realized. The downstream demand is cooling and the copper price is under pressure, but the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened low, moved low, and fluctuated to close down. The closing price was 77,600. The long positions of the top 20 were 113,430 lots, a decrease of 1,275 lots; the short positions were 119,931 lots, an increase of 137 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was 15 yuan/ton. On May 29, 2025, the LME official price was $9,602/ton, and the spot premium was $39.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of May 23, the spot TC was -$44.30/ dry ton, and the spot RC was -4.44 cents/lb [6] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 1,963 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 152,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 180,500 short tons, an increase of 27,900 short tons from the previous period [9]