1月5日（周一），上海期铜在2026年开局走势强劲，此前智利矿场的罢工活动加剧了供应担忧。 LME三个月期铝攀升1.24%，报每吨3,053美元，盘中最高上涨1.77%，至每吨3,069美元，达到三年半高 位。 上海期锡主力合约上涨2.1%，报每吨333,240元；LME三个月期锡飙升4.52%，报每吨42,235美元。 上海期锌主力合约上涨2.36%，报每吨23,845元；LME三个月期锌上涨1.46%，报每吨3,172.5美元。 在智利北部的Capstone Copper公司旗下Mantoverde铜金矿的数百名矿工举行罢工，因主要工会与公司之 间就新的劳动合同的谈判破裂。该消息给铜价带来支撑。 随着罢工进入2026年，供应担忧继续加剧，此前的矿山中断、美国关税导致的地区混乱推动了铜价在过 去一年实现破纪录的涨势。 与此同时，上周五，南非约翰内斯堡-艾芬豪矿业执行联席董事长罗伯特·弗里兰德 (Robert Friedland) 、 联席董事长郝维宝 (Weibao Hao) 与总裁兼首席执行官玛娜·克洛特 (Marna Cloete)公布，卡莫阿–卡库拉 (Kamoa-Kakula)50万吨/年一步炼铜冶 ...

期货市场：圣诞节美股休市投机资金获利了结，隔夜伦锡收跌0.81%；最新收盘报42490美元/吨，下跌 345美元，跌幅为0.81%，成交量为466手，持仓量23895万手较前一交易量减少358手；国内方面，夜盘 沪期锡弱势震荡，尾盘大幅收跌，沪锡主力合约2602最新收报332520元/吨，跌7360元/吨，跌幅为 2.17%；伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月24日伦锡库存量报4895吨，较前一交易日库存量增加220吨。长 江锡业网讯：今日沪锡期货市场全线高开，主力月2602合约开盘报340100涨220元，9：20分沪锡主力 2602合约报331310跌8570元；沪期锡开盘低开低走，盘面维持弱势震荡；宏观面，年末市场呈现典型的 跨年特征，港股假期休市使得交投阶段性清淡，北向资金暂停也削弱了短期流动性。机构调仓与获利了 结意愿增强，推动部分资金从前期涨幅较大的科技成长板块流向估值相对较低、防御属性较强的蓝筹品 种。与此同时，多家上市公司披露减持计划，引发市场对部分热门标的估值压力的担忧，进一步强化了 资金的避险心态。在此环境下，以锡为代表的基本金属价格承压明显。一方面，前期支撑价格的供应紧 张预期减弱，海外主要 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai copper increased in volume and rose sharply at the end of the session. The 01 - 02 spread widened to 240. Spot copper rose 1220 to 94690, and the spot discount widened 95 to 310. The spot import loss widened to over 1700, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 7.82, and the LME0 - 3 back structure widened to 13, opening the export window [11]. - Market Outlook: Despite strong US economic growth data, the market's view of the US dollar remains unchanged due to expectations of Fed rate cuts next year. The US dollar index continues to decline, and the macro - positive factors will continue to drive copper prices up [11]. Group 3: Industry News - World Bank Forecast: In the short term, the possibility of a significant correction in metal prices is low. From 2026 to 2027, most base metal prices are expected to strengthen further due to moderate demand growth and a tightening supply pattern. The base metal price index is expected to rise nearly 2% cumulatively. Copper and tin prices are expected to reach new nominal US - dollar - denominated highs, and supply - side pressure in the aluminum, copper, and tin markets will be the core driving force for price increases [11]. - Company News: Jintian Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that its air - conditioner inner - threaded aluminum tube products can meet customer needs and have achieved small - batch supply. Its electromagnetic aluminum flat wire and aluminum automotive 3D bent bars are in the certification and mass - supply stages [11]

Group 1 - The core event involves a fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, leading to a significant increase in global copper prices and supply chain concerns [1] - The Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, has suspended production due to the incident, and the company has invoked force majeure clauses [1] - Freeport anticipates that it will take until 2027 to restore production levels to pre-accident figures, with a projected 35% decrease in copper-gold output for 2026 compared to previous expectations [1] Group 2 - The Grasberg mine accounts for 50% of Freeport's proven reserves and approximately 70% of the expected production before 2029, indicating a long-term impact on global copper supply chains [1] - Citic Futures notes that the reduction in production guidance for the Grasberg mine will exacerbate tightening pressures in the copper market, despite slightly weak terminal demand since September [1] - The expectation of a tightening supply-demand balance is expected to support metal prices, with a focus on potential buying opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in London base metal prices amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, while Citigroup remains bullish on copper prices, raising questions about the potential shift in market supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Trends - London base metal prices are experiencing a widespread decline due to geopolitical tensions [1] - Citigroup's bullish outlook on copper prices suggests a potential divergence in market sentiment regarding copper compared to other base metals [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The article raises questions about whether the supply and demand landscape for base metals is truly changing in light of current events [1]