周期论剑｜三季报深度挖掘 20251109 摘要 中国股市底层逻辑切换，估值折价的三大因素瓦解，市场进入估值修复 与扩张周期，未来驱动力包括无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革和经济转 型确定性。 预计 2026 年股市有望挑战十年前新高，本轮估值重塑将是广泛的，推 荐关注新兴科技、制造业出海优势、周期板块中的反内卷和新材料，以 及经济企稳后的金融板块。 短期内，预计 2025 年 11 月碳酸锂价格有望冲击 87,000 元/吨，但 11 月下旬至 2026 年 1 月可能回落至 75,000 元/吨左右。长期来看， 2026 年碳酸锂底部价格较今年有所提升，中枢约为 60,000-70,000 元 /吨。 化工行业整体处于底部，净利润创近 20 年新低，但随着资本开支下降 和需求可能回升，预计 2026 年景气度有望改善，建议优先配置龙头白 马股，如煤化工（华鲁恒升）、氨纶（华峰化学）和纯碱（博源化工）。 交运板块中，看好航空和油运。航空业受益于票价市场化和机队增速放 缓，油运受益于原油增产周期和地缘政治因素。推荐关注中国国航、吉 祥航空、南方航空、中国东航、春秋航空，以及中远海能、招商轮船和 招商南油。 Q&A ...

周期论剑｜业绩与确定性 20251026 摘要 中国传统行业周期性减弱，固定资产投资减少，实业资本转向资产管理 需求，无风险收益下沉，推动资本市场发展。稳定垄断企业和转型企业 成为投资重点，前者提供稳定回报，后者代表未来技术趋势。 二十届四中全会重申经济建设为中心，治理思路转向积极发展，利好科 技与消费领域，重估股票和资本市场定价基础。中国应对中美贸易挑战 体系化成熟化，提升国家治理能力认可度，股市风险偏好提高。 预计 2025 年中国市场站稳 4,000 点，无二次探底，每次调整是加仓机 会，2026 年有望挑战 2015 年高点。新兴科技是主线，周期金融是黑 马。外部局势调整和中美关系冲突导致市场价格下跌，这构成了买点而 非卖点。 有色金属板块中，工业金属受益于中美贸易磋商推进及国内会议带来的 风险偏好变化，美联储可能降息及停止缩表将使流动性宽松，无论贵金 属还是工业金属价格都有望迎来上涨。 化工行业供给端压力预计逐步缓解，龙头企业凭借竞争实力实现新增量， 关注煤化工（华鲁恒升）、氨纶（华峰化学）、制冷剂等领域，以及润 滑油添加剂（瑞丰新材、利安隆）和高频高速树脂（盛泉、东财）等新 材料。 Q&A 如何看 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Financial Conditions**: Domestic financial conditions are stabilizing, with loose fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market, which helps to build consensus, boost expectations, and attract foreign capital [1][3] - **Investment Focus**: The main investment themes include technology, particularly AI innovation and semiconductor equipment, as well as adjusted financial sectors and industries like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and new energy [1][4] Company Insights - **Aviation Industry**: During the 2025 National Day holiday, air passenger traffic significantly increased, with ticket prices rising beyond expectations. The aviation industry is expected to see profits surpassing 2019 levels in Q3 2025, contingent on the recovery of business travel demand [1][5] - **LNG Shipping Market**: The LNG shipping market is expected to perform well in Q4 2025, benefiting from OPEC's production increase and additional supply from South America and West Africa, indicating a rebound in profitability for shipping companies [1][7] - **Coal Market**: The coal market is experiencing a dual improvement in supply and demand, with prices expected to rise gradually starting in the second half of 2026. The focus on coal stocks is increasing due to supply constraints and unexpected demand [1][14][15][16] Key Industry Trends - **Oil Prices**: Recent declines in oil prices are attributed to geopolitical factors, tariffs, and OPEC+ production increases. Future price movements will depend on the attitudes of oil-producing countries and geopolitical developments [1][8][9] - **Steel Industry**: The steel sector is expected to perform well in Q4, with historical data suggesting that policy-related factors can lead to year-end rallies. The industry is also seeing a shift towards a more stable supply-demand balance, with potential profit increases in the coming years [1][19][20] Recommendations - **Investment Recommendations**: - **Aviation**: Focus on companies that can capitalize on the recovery of business travel and rising ticket prices [1][5] - **LNG Shipping**: Companies like China Merchants Energy and China Ship Leasing are recommended due to expected profitability rebounds [1][7] - **Coal**: Companies like China Shenhua and other major state-owned enterprises are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for profit growth [1][18][17] - **Steel**: Recommended companies include Baosteel and Hualing Steel, which have cost advantages and strong market positions [1][20] Additional Insights - **Geopolitical Impact**: The current geopolitical landscape is influencing market dynamics, with clearer boundaries around trade risks compared to earlier in the year. This clarity is seen as an opportunity for investors to increase their holdings in Chinese assets [2][3] - **Consumer Building Materials**: The consumer building materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to perform well despite a challenging market environment [1][24][25] This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of various industries and companies.

High-Growth Sector: Focus on AI Industry Trends in AI & Electronic Materials - The overall revenue and net profit of the high-growth sector are expected to grow by +1.4% and +29.6% year-on-year in 2024 [2] - Advanced packaging materials are projected to see significant revenue and profit improvements in 2024, with increases of +28.3% and +31.0% respectively [2] - The demand for electronic-grade PPO resin is expected to rise significantly, with global demand projected to increase from 1,863 tons in 2023 to 5,821 tons by 2025 [2] - The synthetic biology sector is expected to experience substantial growth driven by policy support, with revenue and profit growth rates of +39.5% and +92.7% in 2024 [3] Performance Realization Sector: Market Dynamics Favoring Leaders - The semiconductor quartz glass materials sector is facing a decline, with revenue and profit expected to drop by -76.5% and -132.2% in 2024 [4] - Carbon fiber and composite materials are at the bottom of the cycle, but profits are beginning to recover, with a projected revenue decline of -18.9% in 2024 followed by a +10.7% increase in Q1 2025 [4] - The nylon industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with revenue and profit growth of +13.4% and +27.8% in 2024 [4] Emerging Blue Ocean Sector: Focus on Solid-State Battery Materials and PEEK Materials - The solid-state battery materials sector is gaining traction, with significant advancements expected in 2025, particularly in new applications within the low-altitude economy [9] - PEEK materials are anticipated to meet new demands driven by trends in humanoid robots and electric vehicles, particularly in lightweight and high-pressure applications [9]