宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 3 月 4 日 2 月 PMI 数据点评 制造业供、需指数均有下滑 制造业供、需指数均有下滑。出口仍维持韧性，2 月新出口订单下滑主要受 春节假期等季节性因素影响。制造业主要价格指数仍处于扩张区间。 制造业景气度仍位于收缩区间。2 月制造业 PMI 指数为 49.0%，环比（1 月，下同）下降 0.3 个百分点，制造业景气度在收缩区间继续下滑。着眼 重要细分项，2 月新订单指数 48.6%，环比下降 0.6 个百分点，外需同样 有所下滑，2 月新出口订单指数环比下降 2.8 个百分点，仅为 45.0%。 从不同行业的价格表现看，首先，2 月部分原材料加工业购进价格指数同 比明显改善，黑色金属冶炼加工业、金属制品业购进价格指数同比均有 回升；此外，当月有色金属冶炼及压延加工业购进价格指数同比、环比 均有回升，高技术产业投资或对有色金属产品价格形成重要支撑。2 月部 分设备制造业价格指数依然位于扩张区间，专用设备制造业购进价格指 数同比有所改善。 相关研究报告 《2025 年 CPI 权重更新》20260304 《中期视角下的美债与黄金》20260301 《 ...

Manufacturing Sector - January Manufacturing PMI index decreased to 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from December, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[1] - New orders index fell to 49.2%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, while new export orders index dropped to 47.8%, down 1.2 percentage points[1] - Production index stood at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points; raw material inventory index at 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; finished goods inventory index increased to 48.6%, up 0.4 percentage points[1] - Employment index decreased to 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points; supplier delivery time index slightly declined to 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points[1] Price and Demand Indicators - Major raw material purchase price index remained high at 56.1%, up 3.0 percentage points; manufacturing output price index increased by 1.7 percentage points[2] - The demand for black metal smelting and specialized equipment manufacturing showed improvement in new orders, indicating potential growth in fixed asset investment[2] - January non-manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the service sector[3] Construction Sector - January construction PMI index dropped to 48.8%, a significant decline of 4.0 percentage points; new orders index fell to 40.1%, down 7.3 percentage points[3] - Employment index in construction slightly improved to 41.1%, up 0.1 percentage points; business activity expectation index decreased to 49.8%, down 7.6 percentage points[3]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - December Manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, indicating a return to expansion territory[2] - New orders index for December was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, with external demand contributing positively[2] - Production index increased to 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points, reflecting improved manufacturing activity[2] - Supplier delivery time index slightly increased to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating stable supply chain conditions[2] Group 2: Investment and Economic Outlook - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to remain promising at the beginning of 2026, despite some weakness in December[3] - December's main raw material purchase price index was at 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating high price levels[9] - The manufacturing profit margin is expanding as factory prices rise while raw material costs slightly decline[9] - Construction sector PMI rose to 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activity[15] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - December Non-Manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, indicating expansion[11] - New orders index for non-manufacturing was at 47.3%, up 1.6 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold[11] - Employment index in the non-manufacturing sector was at 46.1%, indicating contraction despite a slight increase of 0.8 percentage points[11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a slight decrease in both indices, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy. It emphasizes the need for effective demand stimulation and policy coordination to enhance economic recovery and stabilize prices. CPI Analysis - In April 2025, the CPI year-on-year change was -0.1%, consistent with the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year change was -2.7%, lower than the previous -2.5% [1][7] - The CPI month-on-month change was 0.1%, an improvement over the negative growth seen in February and March. Key price increases were driven by reduced imports affecting beef prices, increased travel activity during the May Day holiday, and rising gold prices [8][9] - Beef prices rose by 3.9% month-on-month in April, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 5.9 percentage points. Travel-related costs, including airfare and accommodation, saw significant increases, contributing approximately 0.10 percentage points to the CPI month-on-month [8][9] PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month change was -0.4%, unchanged from March. Input price pressures remain significant, particularly in the oil and gas extraction sector, which saw a month-on-month decline of 3.1% [10][11] - The steel industry continues to face the necessity of capacity reduction, with black metal smelting prices decreasing by 1.0% month-on-month. The construction sector supports cement prices, while the automotive industry experiences ongoing price declines due to technological advancements and market competition [10][11] - The article anticipates that the PPI year-on-year decline may continue to widen due to elevated bases from May to July and external demand pressures affecting capacity utilization in certain industries [4][12] Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that the relationship between money supply and prices is complex and depends on supply-demand dynamics. Effective demand stimulation is crucial for price recovery, necessitating coordinated policies across various sectors [5][14] - The article suggests that optimizing the supply-demand ratio is essential for positive effects from monetary policy expansion. Key policy paths include boosting consumption, stabilizing local investment, and promoting technological and industrial innovation [6][15]