20 July 2025 | 10:17PM HKT China Data Insights Our Revamped China Wage Tracker Shows Gradual Softening in Wage Growth (Yang) Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Che ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and transformations in the job market, particularly focusing on the rise of live-streaming job recruitment methods amidst a record number of graduates entering the workforce in 2025, with 12.22 million graduates expected [3][4]. Group 1: Job Market Dynamics - The job market is facing a significant imbalance with a high number of job seekers and limited opportunities, leading to a phenomenon termed "slow employment" [3]. - Live-streaming recruitment has emerged as a new method for job seekers to find opportunities, leveraging the popularity of short video platforms [4][12]. Group 2: Risks in Live-Streaming Recruitment - There are concerns regarding misleading job postings and hidden fees associated with job offers, which can be likened to "cyber pie-in-the-sky" schemes [5][10]. - Job seekers have reported experiences of being asked to pay upfront fees for job placements, raising red flags about the legitimacy of such offers [9]. Group 3: Industry Adaptation - The live-streaming job recruitment industry is rapidly evolving, with many companies integrating it into their talent acquisition strategies. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security plans to include "live-streaming recruitment specialists" in the national occupational classification [12]. - Major platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin are becoming central to live-streaming recruitment, with significant user engagement and participation [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The live-streaming job market is projected to expand further, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 15% over the next decade, indicating a shift towards more streamlined and efficient recruitment processes [14][15]. - The industry is moving from a phase of rapid growth to one of regulatory compliance, emphasizing the need for better risk management practices [15].

Core Insights - The job market is facing a significant challenge as the number of college graduates is expected to reach a historical peak of 12.22 million in 2025, leading to a highly competitive environment for job seekers [2][4] - The rise of live-streaming job recruitment has transformed the employment landscape, providing a new avenue for job seekers to connect with potential employers [4][14] - However, this new recruitment method is fraught with risks, including misleading job offers and upfront fees, which can lead to exploitation of job seekers [5][10] Group 1: Job Market Dynamics - The convergence of graduation and job-seeking seasons has created a "surplus of job seekers" situation, making it difficult for many to secure employment [2][3] - Live-streaming platforms are increasingly being used for job recruitment, with many job offers being advertised as high-paying and accessible to a wide range of applicants [4][6] - The job market is characterized by a mismatch between the high number of applicants and the availability of quality job opportunities, leading to increased anxiety among job seekers [2][9] Group 2: Live-Streaming Recruitment - Live-streaming job recruitment has gained popularity, with platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin becoming central to this trend, attracting millions of job seekers [18][19] - Companies are leveraging live-streaming to showcase job environments and engage with potential candidates in real-time, enhancing the recruitment process [13][21] - Despite its advantages, the live-streaming recruitment model has raised concerns about the authenticity of job offers and the potential for scams, as seen in the experiences of job seekers who faced unexpected fees and misleading job descriptions [7][10][12] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The online recruitment market is projected to reach a scale of hundreds of billions, with an expected annual growth rate of 15% over the next decade [24] - The integration of technology, such as AI and VR, is expected to further enhance the live-streaming recruitment experience, although it also presents new challenges [13][19] - The industry is moving towards a more structured and regulated approach, with the inclusion of new job roles like "live-stream recruitment specialists" in national occupational classifications [14][25]

Core Viewpoint - KANZHUN LIMITED, operating the online recruitment platform BOSS Zhipin, has announced a share offer of 30,000,000 Class A ordinary shares to enhance financial flexibility and support sustainable development [1][4]. Share Offer Details - The share offer consists of a Hong Kong public offering of 3,000,000 shares and an international offering of 27,000,000 shares, with the possibility of reallocating shares based on demand [1][2]. - An additional 4,500,000 shares may be offered, representing a 15% increase over the initial offering, subject to market conditions [2]. - The maximum offer price for the Hong Kong Public Offering is set at HK$78.00 per share, with the international offer price potentially being higher or the same [3]. Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the share offer will be allocated towards technology investments, new business initiatives, strategic acquisitions, and general corporate purposes [4]. Underwriters - Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. and Morgan Stanley Asia Limited are acting as overall coordinators, with additional firms involved as joint global coordinators and bookrunners [5]. Company Overview - KANZHUN LIMITED operates BOSS Zhipin, a leading online recruitment platform in China, facilitating efficient connections between job seekers and enterprises through a highly interactive mobile app [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and contradictions in the online recruitment industry, highlighting the increasing complexity and costs associated with recruitment platforms, which are struggling to balance profitability with user satisfaction [2][3][10]. Group 1: Recruitment Market Dynamics - The recruitment market is facing a paradox where there are many job seekers but limited job opportunities, leading to heightened anxiety among graduates and job seekers [2][17]. - The online recruitment industry has seen significant growth, with a 48% increase in market size during 2021, despite the pandemic's impact on offline recruitment [10]. - Major platforms like BOSS Zhipin and others have reported substantial revenue growth, with BOSS Zhipin generating 7.3 billion yuan in revenue and a 40% increase in net profit [10][18]. Group 2: Payment Structures and User Experience - Recruitment platforms have shifted to a dual payment model, where users must pay for both membership and additional services, leading to frustration among HR professionals [6][10]. - The pricing for job postings and additional features is dynamic and often unclear, with costs ranging from 88 to 518 yuan per month for various services [6][10]. - Users report dissatisfaction with the effectiveness of paid features, often feeling that the return on investment is low, leading to skepticism about the value of additional payments [14][19]. Group 3: Trust and Transparency Issues - There is a growing distrust among job seekers regarding the authenticity of job postings, with many suspecting the existence of "zombie jobs" that are not actively hiring [16][20]. - Complaints against platforms have surged, with BOSS Zhipin receiving nearly 8,000 complaints related to high pricing and lack of transparency [10]. - The article suggests that the recruitment platforms' business models may need to adapt to improve user trust and satisfaction, as many users are exploring alternative methods for job searching [21][24]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework for online recruitment platforms is less stringent compared to e-commerce platforms, leading to potential gaps in oversight regarding pricing and service transparency [23][24]. - The article emphasizes the need for platforms to consider their social responsibility in addressing employment issues, especially in light of the increasing scrutiny on their business practices [24].

Core Insights - The recruitment market is facing a paradox where there are many job seekers but limited job opportunities, leading to increased anxiety among graduates and HR professionals [1][14] - Recruitment platforms are transitioning from free services to monetization strategies, resulting in a complex fee structure that often frustrates users [1][6][15] - The online recruitment industry has shown growth, with BOSS Zhipin reporting a revenue of 7.3 billion yuan and a 40% increase in net profit [6][15] Group 1: Recruitment Platform Dynamics - Recruitment platforms are increasingly relying on B-end enterprises for revenue, with some platforms generating up to 99% of their income from these clients [1][15] - The fee structures have become more intricate, with various paid options for job postings and enhanced visibility, leading to confusion among HR professionals [2][3][5] - The dual payment model of "membership + tools" has become standard across the industry, with platforms like BOSS Zhipin, Zhaopin, and 51Job being frequently mentioned [5][6] Group 2: User Experience and Challenges - HR professionals report a significant decrease in recruitment efficiency, with only 10% of resumes received being relevant [8][12] - The prevalence of "zombie jobs," or listings without actual hiring intent, has led to distrust among job seekers [13][14] - Users are increasingly exploring alternative recruitment methods, such as social media and direct referrals, due to dissatisfaction with traditional platforms [16][17] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The number of graduates entering the job market is expected to reach 12.22 million, a 4.3% increase from the previous year, while many companies are reducing hiring needs [14] - Despite the challenges, new players are emerging in the recruitment space, leveraging platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin for targeted job postings [16][17] - The online recruitment industry is experiencing a stable market structure, with major platforms maintaining a significant user base, but the need for regulatory oversight remains [17][18]

ZipRecruiter (ZIP) FY Conference Summary Company Overview - ZipRecruiter has been in business for fifteen years and has maintained profitability with a balance sheet of $468 million [2] - It is the number one rated employer site for recruiting and has been the top job search app for over five years on both Android and iOS [2] - The company has experienced significant job seeker traffic growth, outpacing competitors [2] Financial Performance - In the previous year, ZipRecruiter achieved over $70 million in adjusted EBITDA, representing a 16% margin [3] - Q1 revenue was reported at $110 million with adjusted EBITDA of $5.9 million [19] - The revenue per paid employer was $1,734 per quarter, showing an 11% compounded annual growth rate since 2021 [20] Market Position and Industry Insights - The recruiting industry in the U.S. has a total addressable market (TAM) of over $300 billion, with a majority of spending still directed towards offline recruiting [4][25] - ZipRecruiter, along with other online platforms, accounts for a small fraction of the overall revenue in the recruiting category [5] - The company is positioned for disruption in the recruiting market as technology solutions gain acceptance among employers [5] Strategic Initiatives - ZipRecruiter has invested over $1 billion in marketing to build brand recognition, which is crucial in the recruiting category [3][13] - The company has developed proprietary algorithms and a robust R&D center in Israel to enhance candidate matching through advanced technologies like machine learning and AI [8][10] - The introduction of "Phil," an AI personal recruiter, has improved user engagement and experience [11][12] Recent Trends and Future Outlook - There has been a noticeable stabilization in hiring trends since December, with a 10% sequential increase in paid employer numbers from Q4 to Q1 [31] - The company anticipates a return to year-over-year growth in Q4 2025, driven by improved market conditions [23] - Flexibility in operating expenses has allowed ZipRecruiter to remain profitable despite market downturns [24][28] Competitive Advantages - ZipRecruiter possesses a large proprietary dataset from interactions between job seekers and employers, providing an unfair advantage in matching capabilities [26] - The company enjoys over 80% aided brand awareness among job seekers and employers, which has helped it weather recent market challenges [27] - The platform's ability to connect job seekers and employers quickly is emphasized through innovations like "Zip Intro," which facilitates rapid interviews [47] Challenges and Market Dynamics - The recruiting industry faces challenges from entrenched behaviors and skepticism towards new solutions, particularly in offline recruiting [49] - ZipRecruiter aims to demonstrate its value by providing faster and more cost-effective recruiting solutions compared to traditional methods [50] Conclusion - ZipRecruiter is well-capitalized and strategically positioned to capitalize on the recovery of the labor market, with a focus on leveraging technology and brand strength to drive future growth [28]

Core Insights - ZipRecruiter has been recognized as the best AI-powered hiring platform for 2025 due to its fast time-to-hire, smart automation, and seamless integration with existing hiring systems [1][2][10] Group 1: Performance and Features - ZipRecruiter provides a measurable edge in the competitive hiring landscape through technology-driven efficiency and employer-first features [2] - Four out of five employers receive a quality candidate within one day of posting a job, highlighting its rapid hiring results [3] - The platform's Smart Matching Technology automatically distributes job postings to over 100 job boards, significantly reducing time-to-hire [4][16] Group 2: Enterprise Solutions - ZipRecruiter offers a robust enterprise hiring platform that includes one-click job distribution, smart candidate scoring, and automated outreach, making it suitable for large-scale talent acquisition [7][8] - Key features for enterprise clients include advanced hiring analytics, customizable workflows, and integration with over 40 ATS platforms [13][16] Group 3: Niche and Private Job Boards - ZipRecruiter supports niche communities through JobBoard.io, allowing organizations to create branded hiring platforms without starting from scratch [9][14] - This solution combines a scalable job board platform with AI-powered infrastructure, providing real hiring value to members [9] Group 4: Market Positioning - In a tight labor market, ZipRecruiter addresses the urgent need for smarter sourcing and better targeting, making it a go-to platform for businesses [10][11] - The platform simplifies the complexity of modern hiring, directly impacting business outcomes through quality hires [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, with a continued recovery in recruitment demand [3] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive advantage in the online recruitment sector while actively expanding its AI business, which is anticipated to enhance long-term growth potential [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,952.03 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 31.94% - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 1,099.23 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 924.97% - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 is forecasted at 2,156.19 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 169.71% - Adjusted EPS for 2023 is estimated at 4.71 RMB per ADS, with a PE ratio (Non-GAAP) of 25.84 [1][9] Market Demand and User Growth - Positive signals in recruitment demand across multiple industries, with blue-collar and small enterprise contributions continuing to rise - The blue-collar business's contribution to revenue exceeded 39% in Q1 2025, driven by a significant increase in blue-collar users [3] - The contribution from users in third-tier cities and below increased by 3 percentage points to over 23% year-on-year [3] Cost Control and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin increase of 1.2 percentage points to 84% in Q1 2025 - Sales expense ratio decreased by 8.5 percentage points due to reduced advertising and employee-related costs, indicating improved customer acquisition efficiency [3] - The company maintains a guidance of 3 billion RMB for adjusted operating profit in 2025, supported by enhanced customer acquisition efficiency and AI-driven cost reductions [3] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts Non-GAAP net profits of 3.3 billion RMB, 4.1 billion RMB, and 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, with a continued recovery in recruitment demand [3] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive advantage in the online recruitment sector while actively expanding its AI business, which is anticipated to enhance long-term growth potential [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,952.03 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 31.94%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 7,355.68 million RMB, growing by 23.58% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,099.23 million RMB in 2023, with a staggering year-on-year increase of 924.97%. By 2024, this is expected to rise to 1,584.66 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 44.16% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is estimated at 2,156.19 million RMB for 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 169.71%. The projection for 2024 is 2,710.71 million RMB, indicating a growth of 25.72% [1] - The adjusted EPS is expected to be 4.71 RMB in 2023, increasing to 5.92 RMB in 2024 [1] Market Trends and Insights - There are positive signals in recruitment demand across multiple industries, with blue-collar and small enterprise contributions continuing to rise [3] - The company has seen an increase in blue-collar business contributions to over 39% of revenue, driven by user growth in this segment [3] - The company has effectively controlled costs, leading to an improvement in profitability, with a gross margin increase of 1.2 percentage points to 84% in Q1 2025 [3] Future Projections - The company maintains a guidance of 3 billion RMB for adjusted operating profit in 2025, supported by improved customer acquisition efficiency and AI-driven cost reductions [3] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.3 billion RMB, 4.1 billion RMB, and 4.8 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17x, 14x, and 12x [3]