Group 1 - The core message of the article highlights the shift in diplomatic dynamics in Asia following Trump's departure, with China and ASEAN focusing on cooperation and trade agreements without U.S. involvement [1][3] - The RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) is transitioning from a mere agreement to an operational framework, emphasizing political and security coordination among ASEAN nations [5][6] - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 agreement aims to facilitate smoother economic interactions, allowing for freer movement of money, people, goods, and data, thereby reducing costs and administrative burdens [6][8] Group 2 - ASEAN countries are responding to U.S. tariffs by reinforcing their commitment to multilateral trade systems and enhancing regional cooperation, as evidenced by their public condemnation of U.S. tariff policies [3][5] - The recent meetings signify a strategic move by ASEAN and China to establish a long-term economic blueprint, contrasting with the U.S. approach that lacks substantive commitments to lowering tariffs [8] - The balance of power within RCEP is characterized by ASEAN's leadership, with China playing a supportive role, ensuring that the region maintains its economic autonomy while benefiting from Chinese participation [5][6]

Core Points - The 47th ASEAN Summit emphasizes "inclusiveness and sustainability," with a focus on strengthening regional economic integration and strategic cooperation amid a complex global environment [1][3] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang's participation in multiple key meetings signals China's commitment to regional cooperation and multilateralism, which is crucial for Asia's role as a global economic growth center [1][4] Group 1: Regional Cooperation - The ASEAN leaders and dialogue partners are concentrating on enhancing regional economic integration and strategic collaboration, aiming to provide new directions for trade and investment [1] - Li Qiang highlighted the ongoing economic transformation in East Asia, asserting that the "East Asian miracle" is still in progress, and warned of rising uncertainties in the international economic landscape [3][4] - The RCEP leaders' meeting is significant as it marks the first gathering of leaders since the agreement was signed during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, underscoring the strategic importance of this partnership [6][7] Group 2: Economic Integration - The RCEP is recognized as the world's largest free trade agreement, with its members, including ASEAN countries, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, aiming for deeper economic integration [6][7] - Li Qiang called for closer cooperation among RCEP members to address challenges and promote development, emphasizing the need for an open regional market and adherence to multilateral trade systems [6][8] - The upcoming signing of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade is expected to modernize trade frameworks and enhance regional economic cooperation, focusing on digital trade and sustainability [8][9] Group 3: Future Outlook - The series of summits aims not only to address current challenges but also to shape the future regional economic architecture, with a focus on mutual promotion rather than mere interdependence [8][9] - The role of China is evolving from an adapter of international rules to a leader in new globalization efforts, positioning itself as a reliable source of economic growth and stability for Asia and beyond [9]

Core Insights - The East Asian cooperation, primarily through the ASEAN and 10+3 mechanisms, is under significant pressure due to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical challenges, necessitating resilience and adaptability for future growth [1][4][12] Group 1: Economic Growth and Challenges - The ASEAN and 10+3 region is projected to have an economic growth rate of 3.8% in 2025, showing resilience amid global trade turmoil, although growth may slow to 3.6% in 2026 due to ongoing challenges [1][2] - The 10+3 cooperation mechanism, which originated in response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis, has evolved to address economic recovery and long-term development, highlighting its crisis-driven nature [2][3] Group 2: Structural Adjustments and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. tariffs pose a direct threat to the export-driven economies of the 10+3 countries, which rely heavily on trade with the U.S. and are now compelled to adjust their export structures [4][5] - Countries like Japan and South Korea have engaged in significant investments and market openings to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, while ASEAN nations are experiencing internal divisions regarding trade agreements with the U.S. [6][7] Group 3: Regional Cooperation and Integration - The 10+3 cooperation framework is characterized by a strong emphasis on political trust and market complementarity, with a combined population of approximately 2.2 billion, creating a substantial consumer market [3][4] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is seen as a vital tool for enhancing regional economic integration, focusing on tariff reductions and unified rules of origin [11][12] Group 4: Future Directions and Strategic Initiatives - To strengthen regional cooperation, the 10+3 countries should maintain ASEAN's central role, implement RCEP effectively, and embrace digital and green economies as new growth engines [8][9] - Enhancing the regional financial safety net and exploring local currency settlements are crucial for increasing resilience against external economic shocks [8][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant negative impact of the U.S. tariff policy on global trade and economic growth, highlighting the resulting uncertainty and its effects on various economies [4][5][7]. Group 1: Impact on Global Economy - The U.S. tariff policy has been described as a "major negative shock" to the world economy, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowering its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.8% and 3% respectively, down by 0.5 percentage points from earlier predictions [5][6]. - The IMF noted that the actual tariff levels have reached the highest in a century, contributing to increased uncertainty and negatively affecting economic activities and prospects globally [5][6]. - Concerns have spread globally, with representatives from various regions expressing worries about the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs on both developed and developing economies [5][6]. Group 2: Effects on U.S. Economy - The IMF has projected that the U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.8% this year, a reduction of 0.9 percentage points from previous forecasts, primarily due to policy uncertainty and weakened demand [7][8]. - Former U.S. Treasury Secretaries have indicated a significant increase in the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. as a result of the tariff policies [7][8]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - The article emphasizes that the U.S. tariff policy could lead to long-term structural damage to the global economy, potentially stalling innovation and hindering sustainable development efforts [8][9]. - The uncertainty created by the tariffs is causing investors to hesitate, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and spending [8][9]. Group 4: China's Position - In contrast to the U.S. approach, China is portrayed as a "certainty oasis," actively expanding its global trade partnerships and maintaining stable economic growth, with a reported GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter [12][13]. - China's efforts to establish high-standard free trade agreements and create a favorable business environment are seen as strategies to counteract the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs [12][13].