编者按：在美国关税冲击以及地缘政治回潮等复杂挑战下，东亚各国以及地区合作面临巨大的"压力测 试"。以东盟和中日韩（10+3）机制为主渠道的东亚合作如何保持韧性，并在转危为机中实现更大发 展？本期"环球圆桌对话"就此展开讨论。 许利平：中国社科院亚太与全球战略研究院研究员 当然，在单边主义、保护主义和经济霸凌冲击国际多边贸易体制的大背景下，东亚合作也面临着复杂挑 战。比如，地区国家出口面临美国关税冲击。10+3国家多为外向型经济体，相当程度上依赖出口拉动 经济增长。这种出口导向的经济发展模式一方面是面向东亚区域内部，另一方面也面向区域外，尤其是 与美欧的贸易往来。目前来看，对美出口在地区国家对外贸易中普遍占据相当高的比例，美国滥施关税 将对东亚国家出口产生直接影响。当然，美国关税冲击也会刺激地区国家对商品出口进行结构性调整， 包括减少对美出口，增加对区域内以及美国之外其他国家和地区的出口比重。 尽管如此，地区国家出口成本还是不可避免地将会有所增加。长期以来，经济全球化和世界范围内的产 业分工促进资金、人力、原材料和中间品等各种资源自由流动、优化配置。但美国挑动关税和贸易摩 擦，对全球产供链包括中间品贸易造成打击 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant negative impact of the U.S. tariff policy on global trade and economic growth, highlighting the resulting uncertainty and its effects on various economies [4][5][7]. Group 1: Impact on Global Economy - The U.S. tariff policy has been described as a "major negative shock" to the world economy, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowering its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.8% and 3% respectively, down by 0.5 percentage points from earlier predictions [5][6]. - The IMF noted that the actual tariff levels have reached the highest in a century, contributing to increased uncertainty and negatively affecting economic activities and prospects globally [5][6]. - Concerns have spread globally, with representatives from various regions expressing worries about the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs on both developed and developing economies [5][6]. Group 2: Effects on U.S. Economy - The IMF has projected that the U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.8% this year, a reduction of 0.9 percentage points from previous forecasts, primarily due to policy uncertainty and weakened demand [7][8]. - Former U.S. Treasury Secretaries have indicated a significant increase in the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. as a result of the tariff policies [7][8]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - The article emphasizes that the U.S. tariff policy could lead to long-term structural damage to the global economy, potentially stalling innovation and hindering sustainable development efforts [8][9]. - The uncertainty created by the tariffs is causing investors to hesitate, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and spending [8][9]. Group 4: China's Position - In contrast to the U.S. approach, China is portrayed as a "certainty oasis," actively expanding its global trade partnerships and maintaining stable economic growth, with a reported GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter [12][13]. - China's efforts to establish high-standard free trade agreements and create a favorable business environment are seen as strategies to counteract the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs [12][13].