波兰维斯瓦金融与商业学院国际关系学教授 诺瓦克：我认为美国将成为加征关税的最大输家，在当前贸易体系 中，各国终将通过各种方式重新调整全球贸易格局。因此，美国将处于非常不利的地位，其他国家不会与美国维 持这种高关税贸易体系，最终必然导致全球贸易格局的重构。 诺瓦克指出，回顾特朗普首个总统任期就能看出，加征关税根本不会带来美国就业增长，美国消费者终将为关税 买单。诺瓦克表示，希望中欧之间能够携手捍卫多边贸易体系。 （央视财经《第一时间》）波兰维斯瓦金融与商业学院国际关系学教授诺瓦克在接受总台记者采访时表示，他认 为美国的关税政策正在影响世界贸易体系，而美国自身终将成为加征关税的最大输家。 波兰维斯瓦金融与商业学院国际关系学教授 诺瓦克：我衷心希望中欧双方能够携手捍卫全球贸易规则和世贸组织 框架，当前世贸组织确实存在不足，运行受阻，但这已是我们拥有的最佳全球贸易框架，我们必须共同维护世贸 组织规则。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：王昕宇 ...

波兰维斯瓦金融与商业学院国际关系学教授 诺瓦克：我衷心希望中欧双方能够携手捍卫全球贸易规则和世贸组织框架。当前世贸组织确实存在不足，运行 受阻，但这已是我们拥有的最佳全球贸易框架。我们必须共同维护世贸组织规则。 诺瓦克表示，希望中欧之间能够携手捍卫多边贸易体系。 波兰维斯瓦金融与商业学院国际关系学教授诺瓦克在接受总台记者采访时表示，他认为美国的关税政策正在影响世界贸易体系，而美国自身终将成为加征关 税的最大输家。 波兰维斯瓦金融与商业学院国际关系学教授 诺瓦克：我认为美国将成为加征关税的最大输家。在当前贸易体系中，各国终将通过各种方式，重新调整全球 贸易格局，因此美国将处于非常不利的地位，其他国家不会与美国维持这种高关税贸易体系，最终必然导致全球贸易格局的重构。回顾特朗普首个总统任期 就能发现，加征关税根本不会带来就业增长，因此我认为美国消费者将为关税埋单，美国也必将因此成为输家。 ...

Group 1 - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has lowered its global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8%, indicating increasing damage from U.S. tariff measures on the global trade system [1] - The U.S. has imposed differentiated tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on 69 trading partners, raising the trade-weighted average tariff rate to 20.11% as of August 7 [1] - The imposition of tariffs violates WTO principles, leading to systemic risks in global trade rules and increasing uncertainty and fragmentation [1] Group 2 - The unilateral approach of the U.S. in trade negotiations has led to market access agreements that favor U.S. industries while harming global trade governance [2] - Developing countries bear the heaviest burden from these tariff measures, with 32 landlocked developing countries facing marginalization in value chains due to high transportation costs and tariffs [2] - The current multilateral trade system is at a crossroads, with rising trade restrictions potentially leading to further trade contraction and exacerbating economic disparities [2] Group 3 - Urgent reforms are needed for the WTO's dispute resolution mechanism, including the selection of appellate judges and maintaining a two-tier structure for dispute resolution [3] - Emerging economies are encouraged to build diversified supply chain networks to mitigate risks and enhance resilience through regional resource integration [3] - Strengthening the core position of the multilateral trade system is essential, advocating for inclusive rule reforms and ensuring that global development benefits are shared equitably [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market turmoil following the Trump administration's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," which led to a sharp decline in U.S. and global stock markets, highlighting the potential long-term economic implications of such trade policies [1][8][31]. Group 1: Market Reaction - U.S. stock markets experienced their largest single-day drop since 2020, with a total market value loss exceeding $6 trillion within two trading days [8][12]. - Major global markets, including Australia, South Korea, Japan, and Europe, faced severe declines, with Australia's S&P index plummeting by 6.4% and South Korea's index triggering a trading halt [12][13][21]. - The Singapore Strait Times index fell by 8.5% within 20 minutes, and European indices like Germany's DAX and the UK's FTSE saw declines exceeding 4% [13][21]. Group 2: Government Response - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin downplayed the market volatility, asserting that short-term fluctuations should not be a concern and emphasizing a focus on long-term prosperity [3][8]. - Mnuchin claimed that Trump's tariff strategy has created significant negotiation leverage, with over 50 countries reportedly seeking trade negotiations with the U.S. [5][15]. - Despite the optimistic rhetoric, there is skepticism regarding the actual progress of these negotiations, as specific details remain undisclosed [15][36]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The tariffs are expected to have a detrimental impact on global commodity demand, affecting various industries and leading to significant stock price drops for companies like SK Hynix and BHP [19][21]. - Analysts warn that the ongoing trade conflict could result in a 0.3% reduction in U.S. GDP and an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.3% [31]. - The article highlights the potential for economic isolation for the U.S. as other countries may resist accepting what they perceive as "unequal treaties" [40][43]. Group 4: Internal Discontent - There are indications of internal discord within the Trump administration regarding trade policies, with some officials expressing concerns about the long-term economic consequences of the tariffs [25][36]. - Mnuchin's public support for Trump's strategy contrasts with reports of his personal frustrations with the tariff calculations, suggesting a potential for resignation [25][36]. Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The article notes that the tariffs have prompted retaliatory measures from countries like China, which announced a 34% tariff on U.S. goods, directly impacting critical sectors such as semiconductors and defense [31][38]. - The global trade landscape is shifting, with countries like Australia and New Zealand expressing significant distress over the economic fallout from U.S. policies, leading to currency depreciation and market instability [34][43].

Group 1 - Trump threatens to impose a 35% punitive tariff on EU goods if the EU does not fulfill its $600 billion investment commitment, an increase from the previously threatened 30% [1][3] - The dispute originates from a trade agreement where Trump claims he reduced tariffs from 30% to 15% based on the EU's promise to invest $600 billion, which is criticized as vague and lacking concrete commitments [3][5] - The EU's requirement to purchase $750 billion in energy products from the US by 2028 is deemed unrealistic, as current imports are only $61.9 billion, necessitating an annual purchase of $250 billion, which would constitute 85% of the EU's energy spending [3][5] Group 2 - The EU quickly clarified that the $600 billion investment is dependent on voluntary private sector commitments, lacking guarantees or obligations, effectively rendering it an empty promise [5][7] - Similar situations arise with Japan and South Korea, where their commitments are largely based on loans or minimal direct investments, undermining Trump's claims of trade victories [5][7] - The EU has shifted its focus to China, threatening sanctions based on unsubstantiated claims of Chinese support for Russia, which raises questions about the timing and credibility of these accusations [7][9] Group 3 - The EU's actions may be a strategy to divert attention from domestic trade agreement disputes, align with US pressure on China, and gauge Trump's response to Russia, but this could further damage EU-China relations [9][12] - The current situation highlights the severe challenges facing the global trade order, with Trump's "America First" policy threatening to disrupt established economic ties [12] - Future US-EU trade disputes are likely to escalate, with the potential for the 35% tariff threat to be enacted, raising questions about the EU's response if it fails to meet the $600 billion demand [12]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's unexpected strong response to the 50% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration reflects a strategic approach rooted in historical lessons learned from China's past negotiations with the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Brazil's Trade Strategy - President Lula emphasized two principles for trade negotiations with the U.S.: "firmness" in resisting tariff pressures and "caution" in protecting national interests [1][2]. - Brazil's approach contrasts sharply with Japan and the EU, which opted for compromise in the face of U.S. tariff threats, positioning Brazil as a more assertive player [1][2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons - Lula's confidence is derived from historical experiences, particularly China's strong stance during tariff negotiations with the U.S., which ultimately led to a more favorable outcome for China [2]. - The lesson learned is that showing weakness invites further pressure, while a strong stance can lead to negotiations [2]. Group 3: Trade Deficits and Countermeasures - Brazil has a significant trade deficit with the U.S., importing $40.4 billion worth of goods while exporting only $15 billion, which provides leverage for retaliatory measures [4]. - Potential countermeasures could include imposing a 50% tariff on U.S. soybeans, reflecting Brazil's ability to respond effectively to U.S. tariffs [4]. Group 4: Impact on U.S. Stakeholders - The U.S. agricultural sector may face increased costs, with warnings that Brazilian countermeasures could raise U.S. soybean meal prices by 15%, impacting livestock producers [6]. - Historical precedents show that previous compromises by other nations led to further U.S. tariff escalations, highlighting the risks of a non-confrontational approach [6]. Group 5: Support from BRICS and Global Implications - Brazil's firm stance has garnered support from BRICS nations, which collectively oppose unilateral tariffs and advocate for a multilateral trade system [7]. - Lula's declaration of needing equal partners rather than a "world police" reflects a broader sentiment among developing nations regarding trade equity [7][8]. Group 6: U.S. Internal Divisions - The U.S. government is experiencing internal divisions regarding how to respond to Brazil's countermeasures, with some officials concerned about the electoral implications of escalating tensions [7]. - Brazil's agricultural sector remains confident in its food reserves and alternative markets, reducing the impact of potential U.S. sanctions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's strategy of imposing tariffs is increasingly ineffective, as evidenced by the lack of substantial trade agreements and the growing resistance from trade partners [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Strategy - The Trump administration announced new tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on various trade partners, extending the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1 [1][2]. - Despite threats, the U.S. has only reached framework agreements with the UK and Vietnam, failing to secure comprehensive trade deals [2][3]. - The U.S. is perceived to be losing its negotiating power, with countries like Japan and Canada responding to tariff threats with their own countermeasures [2][3]. Group 2: Global Economic Resilience - Countries are enhancing their economic resilience through infrastructure improvements and industry competitiveness to counter U.S. tariff pressures [3][4]. - Germany has approved a €460 billion corporate tax reduction plan and a €500 billion public investment initiative to stimulate its economy [3]. - Japan has introduced measures to support corporate financing and consumer spending, while also providing energy subsidies [3]. Group 3: Trade Diversification Efforts - Many countries are seeking new trade partnerships to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, leading to a more diversified international trade landscape [6][7]. - The EU is actively pursuing free trade agreements with various countries, including those in the Global South, to strengthen its trade network [6][7]. - ASEAN countries are focusing on regional economic integration and leveraging multilateral agreements to counteract tariff impacts [6][7]. Group 4: Responses from Emerging Markets - Emerging markets like Malaysia and Brazil are resisting U.S. pressure by refusing to compromise on national interests and implementing their own industrial plans [3][5]. - Brazil's government is advancing a "New Industrial Plan" to enhance manufacturing competitiveness through financing and tax incentives [5]. - African nations are accelerating regional market integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement to build resilience against global trade shocks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong stance of Germany's Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil against the escalating trade protectionism from the United States, indicating that the EU will take "decisive" measures in response to failed negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: EU's Response to US Trade Policies - The EU has extended an olive branch for negotiations but will not accept unilateral pressure from the US [3]. - Klingbeil warns of "decisive countermeasures," emphasizing that the EU will not tolerate being in a weak or passive position during tariff negotiations [3][6]. - The EU's response is framed as a necessary action to maintain the stability of the multilateral trade system against US unilateralism [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The trade conflict is not just a matter of numbers and tariffs but reflects deeper economic hegemony and strategic competition [3][6]. - An escalation of the trade war could lead to higher costs and uncertainties for businesses and consumers on both sides, potentially destabilizing global supply chains [4]. - The EU's financial and market strength may not fully shield it from the negative impacts of trade tensions [4]. Group 3: Strategic Choices and Future Outlook - The EU's shift towards a more aggressive stance indicates a need to actively defend its economic interests rather than relying solely on dialogue and compromise [6][8]. - The trade policies of the US and EU will significantly influence global supply chains and market confidence, with any concessions or hardline stances likely to trigger chain reactions [6][8]. - The article suggests that the EU's "decisive countermeasures" could compel the US to reconsider the costs of its unilateral actions, potentially leading to renewed negotiations [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to impose a 50% tariff on all copper imports starting August 1 is expected to lead to increased domestic copper prices, higher manufacturing costs, disrupted global trade flows, and long-term negative impacts on global economic growth and sustainability [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Manufacturing - The tariff will significantly raise copper prices in the U.S., benefiting a few domestic mining companies in the short term, but will impose substantial cost increases on industries such as automotive, electronics, and construction [2][4]. - Strategic industries like electric vehicles and data centers, which require significantly more copper than traditional sectors, will face pronounced cost pressures, potentially delaying critical infrastructure projects [2][3]. Group 2: Global Trade Dynamics - The tariff is likely to reshape global copper trade patterns, with major suppliers like Chile and Mexico considering redirecting their exports to other markets, indicating a shift from efficiency-based global trade to regionally protective measures [2][3]. - The imposition of tariffs undermines the authority of the World Trade Organization and disrupts the established global division of labor, leading to a cycle of tariffs, countermeasures, and regionalization of supply chains [3][4]. Group 3: Economic and Environmental Consequences - The tariff could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S., prompting the Federal Reserve to reassess its monetary policy, which complicates global monetary policy coordination [3][4]. - The copper tariff poses a threat to global green transition efforts, as increased costs for essential materials like copper may delay the construction of clean energy infrastructure, hindering progress on climate change initiatives [3][4].

Group 1 - The 15th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held in Kuala Lumpur on July 11, 2025, marking the 20th anniversary of the East Asia Summit [1] - Wang Yi emphasized the need for dialogue, development, and openness among member countries to enhance mutual understanding and cooperation [1] - China proposed three key suggestions: returning to dialogue, focusing on development, and maintaining an open regionalism to counter unilateralism and protectionism [1] Group 2 - Wang Yi highlighted that the root cause of tensions in the Taiwan Strait is the increasing separatist actions of "Taiwan independence" and the support from external forces [2] - He called for a firm stance against any form of "Taiwan independence" and emphasized the importance of maintaining China's sovereignty and territorial integrity [2] - Wang Yi also reiterated China's serious position on the South China Sea issue [3] Group 3 - On the same day, Wang Yi attended the ASEAN Regional Forum Foreign Ministers' Meeting and continued to meet with foreign ministers from relevant countries [4]