期待《声鸣远扬》等新管线驱动广告回暖 ——芒果超媒（300413.SZ）25 年中报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司热门综艺 IP 矩阵持续延展，广电新政预期将长期对行业产生正面驱动，预期公 司 ROI 有望逐渐回升。我们预计公司 25~27 年归母净利润分别为 15.57/18.31/19.93 亿元（25~26 年原预测值为 18.49/21.08 亿元，根据中报，下调 电商等业务收入预测），因广电新政对 26 年产生更大影响，我们切换可比公司 26 年估值，给予公司 26 年 32 倍 PE，对应目标价 31.36 元，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示 行业监管严格，市场竞争激烈，劣迹艺人风险，投资收益不及预期 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 14,628 | 14,080 | 12,910 | 14,158 | 15,150 | | 同比增长 (%) | 4.7% | -3.7% | -8.3% | 9.7% | 7. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q2 and H1 of 2025, falling short of expectations, indicating challenges in its business operations and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a net profit of 385 million yuan, down 35% [1]. - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.96 billion yuan, a decline of 14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 760 million yuan, down 28% [1]. - Membership revenue showed slight growth in H1 2025, reaching 2.5 billion yuan, but faced a decline in Q2 due to content scheduling issues [2]. - Advertising revenue in H1 2025 was 1.6 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in this segment [2]. - The operator business stabilized with revenue of 800 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a growth of approximately 7% [2]. - E-commerce revenue fell significantly by 67% to 450 million yuan in H1 2025, although gross margin improved by 16 percentage points to 19% [2]. Group 2: Operational Insights - Increased content investment has led to higher costs, with operating expenses rising by 3% year-on-year, while the company maintains control over expenses [2]. - The long video business saw a slight revenue decline of 1.5% year-on-year, with operating costs increasing by 12%, primarily due to content production and traffic costs [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The short-term market expectations for the video industry are pessimistic, but there are signs of improvement in content cycles and regulatory environments [3]. - Upcoming projects include the talent show "Voice of the Future" and several new series, indicating a focus on content development [3]. - Recent regulatory measures aim to enhance content supply and address core issues in domestic series production, which could positively impact long video platforms [3]. - The company is exploring IP development and international expansion, with potential for improved advertising performance if macroeconomic conditions recover [3]. Group 4: Investment Rating - The company maintains a buy rating despite challenges in advertising and increased content investment, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4]. - The target price is set at a PE ratio of 35x for 2025, suggesting a potential market value of 66.6 billion yuan, representing a 31% upside from the current price [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (看好) indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music are leading the domestic music platform sector, with Tencent Music's subscription revenue reaching 4.38 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. The average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) increased by 9.3% to 11.7 RMB, driven by the SVIP strategy [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the online entertainment sector, particularly the growth of self-owned copyright operations by companies like Reading Group and the expansion of offline channels for merchandise [4]. - The report expresses concerns about AI applications potentially disrupting the industry, but notes that companies with a "data + scenario" approach have a competitive edge in product design and user engagement [4]. Summary by Sections Media Sector - Tencent Music's revenue from subscriptions and other income sources exceeded expectations, with a focus on monetizing fan economies. The company is expected to continue increasing its average transaction value [4]. - NetEase Cloud Music's subscription revenue grew by 15.2% year-on-year, driven by an increase in paying users, particularly among younger demographics [4]. Entertainment and Gaming - JD Health reported a 30% year-on-year increase in pharmaceutical sales, indicating significant growth potential in online medical sales [4]. - The report highlights the strong performance of various entertainment companies, including Bilibili and Mango TV, which are diversifying their revenue streams beyond traditional advertising and gaming [4]. Valuation of Key Companies - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating projected revenue and profit growth for Tencent Holdings, NetEase, and others, with Tencent expected to achieve a revenue of 7.46 billion RMB in 2025, a growth of 13% [6]. - The report also notes the strong growth potential for companies like Pop Mart and Focus Technology, with significant year-on-year revenue increases projected [6].