2025 年二季度收入基本符合我们预期，经营利润略低于我们的预期金山软件公布2Q2025 业绩：收入 23.07 亿元，同比下降7%，基本符合我们的预期。经营利润3.83 亿元，略低于我们的预期，主要系费用 投入略高于预期。 机构：中金公司 研究员：张潇丹/赵丽萍 发展趋势 办公业务增长修复，游戏业务持续优化。办公业务方面，收入同/环比+14%/+4%，主要得益于WPS 个 人及WPS 365 业务的扩张。2025 年6 月WPS Office 全球月活设备数达6.5 亿，同/环比+9%/+1%。期内公 司发布了WPS AI 3.0，并推出原生Office 办公智能体"WPS 灵犀"，作为WPS AI3.0 的核心能力载体，标 志着公司的AI 能力由工具型应用向协同智能体转变。游戏业务方面，收入同/环比-26%/-8%，同比下滑 主要系《尘白禁区》及《剑网3》去年同期基数较高；环比下滑主要系《尘白禁区》及《剑网3》流水表 现环比有所回落。新游戏方面，已于7 月份上线的新品《解限机》仍处于发展初期；社交推理游戏《鹅 鸭杀》于六月获得版号，预约量已突破500 万，公司预计将于下半年上线；《猫咪和汤》续作《猫咪和 ...

文｜游戏观察 "啥都不氪反而没意思了，这是我们认为改动最为失败的一点。" 失误一：把"又氪又肝"当缺点 在近期Q2业绩交流会上，金山 CEO 邹涛对解限机没有达到预期的总结反思，暴露了西山居更深层的惯 性：用 MMORPG 的尺子，量 PvP 机甲的赛道。做dau产品成绩不佳之后的反思，是觉得没有像mmorpg 加肝加氪，似乎有点反常。 金山财报显示游戏业务成唯一拖油瓶 8 月 20 日，金山软件发布 2025 年中期财报，网络游戏业务罕见"双降"，成了唯一拖油瓶。从财报中显 示，上半年收入 19.88 亿元，同比下降 10%；Q2 收入 9.52 亿元，同比下降 26%、环比下降 8%。尽管 财报把主因归结为"去年同期基数高"，在随后的业绩电话会上，提问集体指向 7 月 2 日上线的机甲新游 《解限机》。 从官方披露的数据看，《解限机》首月流水约1 亿元，Steam 峰值从首日的 13 万迅速跌至 7 千，全平台 热度明显回落。最近，在Q2业绩交流会上，金山 CEO 邹涛坦承"产品肯定没有达到预期"，并首次公开 复盘了三大核心失误。 今年2～3 月测试期间，大量玩家吐槽《解限机》"既氪又肝"。团队顺势下调付 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kingsoft Software continues to show steady revenue growth, with a first-quarter revenue of 2.34 billion RMB, representing a 9% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for the quarter is approximately 82%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1] - Research and development expenses are around 830 million RMB, up 16% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in AI capabilities and new game categories [1] - Sales expenses are approximately 340 million RMB, a 30% increase year-on-year, mainly driven by promotional investments for new games [1] - Administrative expenses remain stable at about 160 million RMB year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 284 million RMB, slightly down from 285 million RMB in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The office segment, including WPS personal and WPS 365 businesses, generates 1.301 billion RMB in revenue, a 6.22% year-on-year increase [1] - WPS personal business revenue is 857 million RMB, reflecting a 10.86% year-on-year growth, with a global monthly active user base of approximately 647 million, up 7.92% [1] - WPS 365 business revenue is 151 million RMB, showing a significant growth of 62.59% year-on-year, driven by document, collaboration, and AI capabilities [1] Group 3: Gaming Segment - The gaming and other business segment generates approximately 1.04 billion RMB in revenue, a 14% year-on-year increase, mainly from the success of the games "Dust White Zone" and "Jian Wang 3" [2] - "Dust White Zone" maintains user engagement through differentiated content and long-term operational strategies, while "Jian Wang 3" solidifies its user base through gameplay updates [2] - The new game "Limitless Machine" launched on July 2, has received positive feedback, ranking fifth on Steam's global wishlist [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth driven by the dual engines of office and gaming segments [2] - Projections for revenue from 2025 to 2027 are 11.4 billion RMB, 12.9 billion RMB, and 14.6 billion RMB, with net profits of 1.88 billion RMB, 2.46 billion RMB, and 2.85 billion RMB respectively [2] - The target valuation for Kingsoft Software is approximately 49.1 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of about 40 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Software [3][5] Core Views - Kingsoft Software continues to experience steady revenue growth, with Q1 revenue reaching 2.34 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The office and gaming segments contribute 56% and 44% to the total revenue, respectively [1] - The company's gross margin for the quarter is approximately 82%, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase year-on-year [1] - R&D expenses for the quarter are around 830 million RMB, up 16% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in AI capabilities and new game categories [1] - The report forecasts revenue growth driven by both office and gaming segments, estimating revenues of 11.4 billion, 12.9 billion, and 14.6 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] Summary by Sections Office Segment - Kingsoft Office recorded Q1 revenue of 1.301 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.22%. The personal business segment generated 857 million RMB, growing by 10.86% [2] - WPS 365 business revenue reached 151 million RMB, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 62.59% [2] - WPS software business revenue declined by 20.99% to 262 million RMB, mainly due to new procurement processes affecting sales [2] Gaming Segment - The gaming and other business revenue for Q1 was approximately 1.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14%, driven by contributions from games like "Dust White Zone" and "Jian Wang 3" [2] - The new game "Limitless Machine" launched on July 2, has received positive feedback, ranking fifth on Steam's global wishlist [2] Financial Projections - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.88 billion, 2.46 billion, and 2.85 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 21%, 31%, and 16% [4][3] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2026 is 17.4, with a target valuation of approximately 49.1 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of around 40 HKD [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a decline in revenue and operating profit in Q2 2025, primarily due to pressures in the gaming sector and increased investments in new games and AI initiatives [1][2]. Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts a revenue of 2.29 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.5% [1]. - The office business is projected to generate 1.34 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 13.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.1% [1]. - The gaming business is expected to generate 0.945 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8.8% [1]. Profitability Analysis - The operating profit is anticipated to be 400 million yuan, with an operating profit margin of 17.5%, down 14.6 percentage points year-on-year and 8.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 601 million yuan, corresponding to a net profit margin of 26.3%, showing an increase of 10.4 percentage points year-on-year and 14.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Adjustments to Forecasts - The revenue growth forecast for the gaming segment has been revised down from 5% to flat for the year, reflecting cautious assumptions regarding the performance of new and existing games [1][2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 2.4% and 3.1% to 11.07 billion yuan and 12.36 billion yuan, respectively [2]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price is maintained at 50 HKD, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 35 times for 2025 [2]. - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 times for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 38% [2].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.338 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 9.41% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 16.28% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 284 million yuan, showing a year-over-year decline of 0.24% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 38.32% [1] Group 2: Gaming Business - The gaming segment generated 1.037 billion yuan in revenue, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.71% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 19.73%, accounting for 44.33% of total revenue [1] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by existing titles such as "Dust White Zone" and "Jian Wang 3," while the decline was attributed to fewer commercial content releases for "Jian Wang 3" in Q1 [1] - The company anticipates continued long-term operation of existing products and expects the launch of "Jian Wang 3: No Boundaries" in June 2024 to enhance user growth and engagement [1] - The upcoming sci-fi mech shooting game "Limit Break" had a peak concurrent player count of over 317,000 during testing and is scheduled for release in July 2025, which is expected to be a significant breakthrough for the company [1] Group 3: Office Business - The office software and services segment reported revenue of 1.301 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 6.21% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 13.30%, making up 55.67% of total revenue [2] - The growth in revenue was mainly due to the performance of WPS Personal and WPS 365, although it was partially offset by a decline in WPS software business [2] - The increase in WPS Personal revenue was driven by strategies focused on enhancing AI active user numbers and rich membership benefits, while WPS 365 growth stemmed from supporting organizational clients in digital office transformation [2] - The decline in WPS software revenue was influenced by new procurement processes in 2025 [2] - The company aims to focus on AI, collaboration, and internationalization, with expectations for rapid growth in overseas WPS Personal business through localized operations and differentiated features [2] Group 4: R&D and Expenses - In Q1 2025, the company's R&D, sales, and management expenses were 828 million, 340 million, and 160 million yuan respectively, with year-over-year increases of 16.14%, 30.30%, and 0.01% [3] - The increase in R&D expenses was primarily due to a rise in employee numbers and AI-related expenditures to support the development of AI and collaboration capabilities [3] - Sales expenses increased year-over-year mainly due to promotions for new games [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting EPS of 1.33, 1.65, and 1.95 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to current PE ratios of 25, 20, and 17 times [3] - The company is optimistic about the steady development of its dual business model and anticipates breakthroughs in new gaming categories and continued implementation of office AI and international expansion [3]

Group 1 - The company's Q1 performance was affected by seasonal factors, with increased R&D spending on AI and new game categories [1][2] - Total revenue in Q1 increased by 9% year-on-year, with gaming and WPS revenues growing by 14% and 6% respectively, but declining by 20% and 13% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Adjusted operating profit in Q1 decreased by 3% year-on-year, primarily due to increased R&D and sales expenses related to WPS AI development and new game launches [1] Group 2 - The gaming business experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline mainly due to seasonal reductions in commercial updates for "Jian Wang 3" [2] - WPS business revenue declined quarter-on-quarter due to the impact of the 2025 procurement process on WPS software [2] - Upcoming game releases include "Jie Xian Ji," which is ranked fifth on the global Steam wishlist and is expected to launch this summer, and "Jian Xia Qian Yuan: Zero," anticipated to launch at the end of May [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Corporation (03888.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming launch of the game "Limitless Machine" and the company's focus on AI, collaboration, and internationalization in its office software segment [1][8] - Kingsoft's revenue for Q1 2025 was 2.338 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.41% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16.28% [8] - The gaming segment's revenue was 1.037 billion yuan, contributing 44.33% to total revenue, with expectations for continued performance from existing titles and the upcoming launch of "Limitless Machine" [8] - The office software segment generated 1.301 billion yuan, accounting for 55.67% of total revenue, driven by growth in WPS personal and WPS 365 services [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Kingsoft are as follows: 10.318 billion yuan in 2024, 11.669 billion yuan in 2025, 13.149 billion yuan in 2026, and 14.721 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.91%, 13.09%, 12.68%, and 11.96% respectively [1] - Net profit projections are 1.552 billion yuan in 2024, 1.867 billion yuan in 2025, 2.304 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.735 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 220.94%, 20.32%, 23.41%, and 18.70% respectively [1] - The report forecasts EPS of 1.33 yuan for 2025, 1.65 yuan for 2026, and 1.95 yuan for 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 24, 20, and 17 times respectively [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming launch of the game "解限机" and the company's focus on AI, collaboration, and internationalization in its office software segment [1][8] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its dual business segments, with a positive outlook on new game categories and the continued development of AI capabilities in office software [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 8,547 million, with a year-on-year growth of 11.74% - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 483.46 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 107.99% - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.35 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 93.52 [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 10,318 million for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20.91% - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 1,551.61 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 220.94% - EPS is expected to rise to 1.11 yuan in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 29.14 [1][9] Business Segments Overview - The gaming segment reported revenue of 10.37 billion in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.71% - The office software segment generated revenue of 13.01 billion in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6.21% [8] - The report highlights the company's strategy to enhance AI user engagement and expand its international presence through localized operations [8] Research and Development Investment - The company has increased its R&D expenses to support AI and new game category development, with R&D costs rising by 16.14% year-on-year [8][9] - The report indicates a commitment to continuous investment in R&D to drive innovation and growth in both gaming and office software sectors [8]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its revenue and net profit forecasts for Kingsoft (03888) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 50, indicating a 39% upside potential based on a 2025 P/E ratio of 24.9x [1] Group 1: Office Business - The office business experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 6%, driven by WPS personal and WPS 365 services, but saw a quarter-on-quarter decline of 13% due to disruptions from new procurement processes for domestic software [2] - As of March 2025, WPS Office's global monthly active devices reached 647 million, with a year-on-year increase of 8%, and the PC version had 301 million monthly active devices, up 11% year-on-year [2] - The management emphasized a core strategy of "AI + collaboration + overseas" for the office business, with a focus on leveraging the user base accumulated in overseas markets since 2018 [2] Group 2: Gaming Business - The gaming business reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 14%, mainly due to contributions from "Jian Wang 3" and the anime game "Chen Bai Jin Qu," but experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 20% due to seasonal factors [3] - Upcoming new games include the sci-fi mech game "Jie Xian Ji," expected to launch in summer 2025, and the sequel to the "Jian Xia Qing Yuan" series, which will have a full platform public test on May 29 [3] - Future strategies for the gaming business include adhering to a principle of quality, diversifying game genres beyond martial arts, and exploring international markets [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1, the operating profit margin was 25.7%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year and 13.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to increased R&D investments in AI and new games [4] - The net profit margin was 12.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.2 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.3 percentage points, mainly due to the drop in operating profit margin [4]