2025 年二季度收入基本符合我们预期，经营利润略低于我们的预期金山软件公布2Q2025 业绩：收入 23.07 亿元，同比下降7%，基本符合我们的预期。经营利润3.83 亿元，略低于我们的预期，主要系费用 投入略高于预期。 机构：中金公司 研究员：张潇丹/赵丽萍 发展趋势 办公业务增长修复，游戏业务持续优化。办公业务方面，收入同/环比+14%/+4%，主要得益于WPS 个 人及WPS 365 业务的扩张。2025 年6 月WPS Office 全球月活设备数达6.5 亿，同/环比+9%/+1%。期内公 司发布了WPS AI 3.0，并推出原生Office 办公智能体"WPS 灵犀"，作为WPS AI3.0 的核心能力载体，标 志着公司的AI 能力由工具型应用向协同智能体转变。游戏业务方面，收入同/环比-26%/-8%，同比下滑 主要系《尘白禁区》及《剑网3》去年同期基数较高；环比下滑主要系《尘白禁区》及《剑网3》流水表 现环比有所回落。新游戏方面，已于7 月份上线的新品《解限机》仍处于发展初期；社交推理游戏《鹅 鸭杀》于六月获得版号，预约量已突破500 万，公司预计将于下半年上线；《猫咪和汤》续作《猫咪和 ...

文｜游戏观察 "啥都不氪反而没意思了，这是我们认为改动最为失败的一点。" 失误一：把"又氪又肝"当缺点 在近期Q2业绩交流会上，金山 CEO 邹涛对解限机没有达到预期的总结反思，暴露了西山居更深层的惯 性：用 MMORPG 的尺子，量 PvP 机甲的赛道。做dau产品成绩不佳之后的反思，是觉得没有像mmorpg 加肝加氪，似乎有点反常。 金山财报显示游戏业务成唯一拖油瓶 8 月 20 日，金山软件发布 2025 年中期财报，网络游戏业务罕见"双降"，成了唯一拖油瓶。从财报中显 示，上半年收入 19.88 亿元，同比下降 10%；Q2 收入 9.52 亿元，同比下降 26%、环比下降 8%。尽管 财报把主因归结为"去年同期基数高"，在随后的业绩电话会上，提问集体指向 7 月 2 日上线的机甲新游 《解限机》。 从官方披露的数据看，《解限机》首月流水约1 亿元，Steam 峰值从首日的 13 万迅速跌至 7 千，全平台 热度明显回落。最近，在Q2业绩交流会上，金山 CEO 邹涛坦承"产品肯定没有达到预期"，并首次公开 复盘了三大核心失误。 今年2～3 月测试期间，大量玩家吐槽《解限机》"既氪又肝"。团队顺势下调付 ...

在游戏板块普遍回暖的2025年上半年，金山软件（HK03888，股价35.720港元，市值500.23亿港元）游 戏业务却遭遇了始料未及的压力与挑战。 据公司财报及业绩电话会议，2025年二季度金山软件网络游戏及其他业务总收入为9.52亿元，同比下降 26%，环比下降8%；2025年上半年，该部分业务总收入为19.88亿元，较2024年同期下降10%。核心新 游戏《解限机》（Mecha BREAK）上线月余表现未达预期，叠加2024年同期高基数影响，游戏板块收 入同比下滑超过两成。 作为金山软件旗下西山居研发的科幻机甲题材新品，《解限机》自上线以来，始终承载着公司拓展新游 戏品类的重要期望。追溯产品当前不及预期的背后原因，玩家反馈与行业环境变化构成两大关键变量。 金山软件执行董事及首席执行官邹涛在电话会中提到，早在2025年初的测试阶段，研发团队就曾根据玩 家意见对游戏进行修改，当时玩家普遍反映"游戏需要投入过多精力与金钱"，团队据此调整了玩法机制 以降低门槛，但从实际效果看，"调整后游戏变得没有那么有意义"，玩家对玩法深度的认可度下滑，间 接影响用户留存与付费转化。 不过，《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，西山居 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gaming market is currently vibrant, with various new releases and discussions, but the performance of the mech game "Limitless Mech" has raised concerns about its marketing strategy and player retention [1][3]. Group 1: Game Performance - "Limitless Mech" had a peak online player count of 131,000 at launch, but this number dropped to nearly 10,000 within a month, indicating a significant player loss [3][5]. - The game's core gameplay is considered to be of "passing quality," which does not sufficiently engage players, leading to a lack of positive word-of-mouth [10][22]. Group 2: Marketing Strategy - The marketing strategy for "Limitless Mech" was misaligned, failing to identify the target audience and effective channels, resulting in poor visibility in the domestic market [7][8]. - The game attempted to leverage international marketing tactics, such as collaborations with popular streamers, but this did not translate into domestic player engagement [6][7]. Group 3: Player Experience - The game features a complex interface and unclear new player guidance, which has contributed to a frustrating experience for newcomers [13][14][17]. - Core gameplay modes focus heavily on combat, which may not appeal to a broader audience, particularly those who are not combat enthusiasts [15][20]. Group 4: Development Insights - The game is seen as a personal project for its producer, Guo Weiwei, who has a strong passion for mech games, but this focus may not align with the current market demands [25][27]. - The development process has been lengthy, spanning over ten years, and has faced multiple setbacks, raising questions about the effectiveness of the production approach [22][28].

Core Insights - The RED LAND event, launched by Xiaohongshu, transforms the historically industrial island into the world's first "pain island" themed around the ACG (Anime, Comic, Game) culture, attracting significant attention from the youth demographic [1] - The event features a 80,000 square meter exhibition area, with two-thirds of it outdoors, aiming to create an immersive "2.5D open world" experience for players [1] - The event includes various high-profile IPs such as Honor of Kings, Egg Party, and Genshin Impact, showcasing a blend of modern pop culture and historical elements [1] Industry Trends - The "Fading Small Forest" experience area differentiates RED LAND from other exhibitions by recreating scenes from popular games like Ninjala and Jian Wang 3, emphasizing a connection to nature and traditional aesthetics [2] - The Echo Project music festival, scheduled for three consecutive nights from August 8 to 10, will feature advanced technologies like 3D projection and drone formations, enhancing the overall experience for attendees [2] - The integration of ACG culture with urban commercial operations and public spaces indicates a shift in how such cultural events are perceived and executed in major cities like Shanghai [2]

Core Viewpoint - Kingsoft Software continues to show steady revenue growth, with a first-quarter revenue of 2.34 billion RMB, representing a 9% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for the quarter is approximately 82%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1] - Research and development expenses are around 830 million RMB, up 16% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in AI capabilities and new game categories [1] - Sales expenses are approximately 340 million RMB, a 30% increase year-on-year, mainly driven by promotional investments for new games [1] - Administrative expenses remain stable at about 160 million RMB year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 284 million RMB, slightly down from 285 million RMB in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The office segment, including WPS personal and WPS 365 businesses, generates 1.301 billion RMB in revenue, a 6.22% year-on-year increase [1] - WPS personal business revenue is 857 million RMB, reflecting a 10.86% year-on-year growth, with a global monthly active user base of approximately 647 million, up 7.92% [1] - WPS 365 business revenue is 151 million RMB, showing a significant growth of 62.59% year-on-year, driven by document, collaboration, and AI capabilities [1] Group 3: Gaming Segment - The gaming and other business segment generates approximately 1.04 billion RMB in revenue, a 14% year-on-year increase, mainly from the success of the games "Dust White Zone" and "Jian Wang 3" [2] - "Dust White Zone" maintains user engagement through differentiated content and long-term operational strategies, while "Jian Wang 3" solidifies its user base through gameplay updates [2] - The new game "Limitless Machine" launched on July 2, has received positive feedback, ranking fifth on Steam's global wishlist [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth driven by the dual engines of office and gaming segments [2] - Projections for revenue from 2025 to 2027 are 11.4 billion RMB, 12.9 billion RMB, and 14.6 billion RMB, with net profits of 1.88 billion RMB, 2.46 billion RMB, and 2.85 billion RMB respectively [2] - The target valuation for Kingsoft Software is approximately 49.1 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of about 40 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a decline in revenue and operating profit in Q2 2025, primarily due to pressures in the gaming sector and increased investments in new games and AI initiatives [1][2]. Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts a revenue of 2.29 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.5% [1]. - The office business is projected to generate 1.34 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 13.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.1% [1]. - The gaming business is expected to generate 0.945 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8.8% [1]. Profitability Analysis - The operating profit is anticipated to be 400 million yuan, with an operating profit margin of 17.5%, down 14.6 percentage points year-on-year and 8.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 601 million yuan, corresponding to a net profit margin of 26.3%, showing an increase of 10.4 percentage points year-on-year and 14.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Adjustments to Forecasts - The revenue growth forecast for the gaming segment has been revised down from 5% to flat for the year, reflecting cautious assumptions regarding the performance of new and existing games [1][2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 2.4% and 3.1% to 11.07 billion yuan and 12.36 billion yuan, respectively [2]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price is maintained at 50 HKD, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 35 times for 2025 [2]. - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 times for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 38% [2].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.338 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 9.41% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 16.28% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 284 million yuan, showing a year-over-year decline of 0.24% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 38.32% [1] Group 2: Gaming Business - The gaming segment generated 1.037 billion yuan in revenue, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.71% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 19.73%, accounting for 44.33% of total revenue [1] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by existing titles such as "Dust White Zone" and "Jian Wang 3," while the decline was attributed to fewer commercial content releases for "Jian Wang 3" in Q1 [1] - The company anticipates continued long-term operation of existing products and expects the launch of "Jian Wang 3: No Boundaries" in June 2024 to enhance user growth and engagement [1] - The upcoming sci-fi mech shooting game "Limit Break" had a peak concurrent player count of over 317,000 during testing and is scheduled for release in July 2025, which is expected to be a significant breakthrough for the company [1] Group 3: Office Business - The office software and services segment reported revenue of 1.301 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 6.21% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 13.30%, making up 55.67% of total revenue [2] - The growth in revenue was mainly due to the performance of WPS Personal and WPS 365, although it was partially offset by a decline in WPS software business [2] - The increase in WPS Personal revenue was driven by strategies focused on enhancing AI active user numbers and rich membership benefits, while WPS 365 growth stemmed from supporting organizational clients in digital office transformation [2] - The decline in WPS software revenue was influenced by new procurement processes in 2025 [2] - The company aims to focus on AI, collaboration, and internationalization, with expectations for rapid growth in overseas WPS Personal business through localized operations and differentiated features [2] Group 4: R&D and Expenses - In Q1 2025, the company's R&D, sales, and management expenses were 828 million, 340 million, and 160 million yuan respectively, with year-over-year increases of 16.14%, 30.30%, and 0.01% [3] - The increase in R&D expenses was primarily due to a rise in employee numbers and AI-related expenditures to support the development of AI and collaboration capabilities [3] - Sales expenses increased year-over-year mainly due to promotions for new games [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting EPS of 1.33, 1.65, and 1.95 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to current PE ratios of 25, 20, and 17 times [3] - The company is optimistic about the steady development of its dual business model and anticipates breakthroughs in new gaming categories and continued implementation of office AI and international expansion [3]

Group 1 - The company's Q1 performance was affected by seasonal factors, with increased R&D spending on AI and new game categories [1][2] - Total revenue in Q1 increased by 9% year-on-year, with gaming and WPS revenues growing by 14% and 6% respectively, but declining by 20% and 13% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Adjusted operating profit in Q1 decreased by 3% year-on-year, primarily due to increased R&D and sales expenses related to WPS AI development and new game launches [1] Group 2 - The gaming business experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline mainly due to seasonal reductions in commercial updates for "Jian Wang 3" [2] - WPS business revenue declined quarter-on-quarter due to the impact of the 2025 procurement process on WPS software [2] - Upcoming game releases include "Jie Xian Ji," which is ranked fifth on the global Steam wishlist and is expected to launch this summer, and "Jian Xia Qian Yuan: Zero," anticipated to launch at the end of May [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming launch of the game "解限机" and the company's focus on AI, collaboration, and internationalization in its office software segment [1][8] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its dual business segments, with a positive outlook on new game categories and the continued development of AI capabilities in office software [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 8,547 million, with a year-on-year growth of 11.74% - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 483.46 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 107.99% - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.35 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 93.52 [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 10,318 million for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20.91% - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 1,551.61 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 220.94% - EPS is expected to rise to 1.11 yuan in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 29.14 [1][9] Business Segments Overview - The gaming segment reported revenue of 10.37 billion in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.71% - The office software segment generated revenue of 13.01 billion in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6.21% [8] - The report highlights the company's strategy to enhance AI user engagement and expand its international presence through localized operations [8] Research and Development Investment - The company has increased its R&D expenses to support AI and new game category development, with R&D costs rising by 16.14% year-on-year [8][9] - The report indicates a commitment to continuous investment in R&D to drive innovation and growth in both gaming and office software sectors [8]