Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/3/1 How the U.S.-Iran Conflict Affects the Futures Market 美伊冲突如何影响期货市场？ | 陈冬科 | Chen Dongke | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03124206 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0023470 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 朱善颖 Zhu Shanying | | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03138401 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0021426 | | 李云旭 Li Yunxu | | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03141405 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: ...

港交所 20260228 摘要 因此有必要在固定收益、外汇以及大宗商品等领域进行必要且审慎的投资。同 时，将在保持良好成本管控的前提下，持续评估投入方向与方式，聚焦能够带 来最佳机会的领域。 随着港交所提出未来十年将加强中国内地与其他亚洲经济体市场之间的互联互 通，并提及可能与马来西亚等地区扩大互联互通，相关举措将如何推进、如何 实现与该地区更紧密连接？ 未来互联互通的重点是在巩固中国内地互联互通这一核心优势的同时，将互联 互通网络从既有模式进一步延展至其他亚洲经济体，形成具有全球吸引力的区 域流动性池。推进路径包括：继续扩大与海外交易所的合作伙伴网络，强化与 中东及东南亚市场的互联互通基础；在此基础上，利用互联互通带来的市场可 及性提升，促进区域资本对接区域内的增长机遇，并为全球投资者提供更广泛 的区域流动性与增长敞口；同时，配合产品侧扩容，为投资者提供更多布局亚 洲及中国相关资产的工具，覆盖现金市场、ETP、衍生品及跨资产风险管理工 具等，以提升互联互通的使用深度与交易活跃度。2025 年已在中东和东南亚 方向推进互联互通并扩展合作网络，同时在中东设立新办事处，并欢迎来自相 港交所对 CMU OmniCl ...

Core Viewpoint - The Asia-Pacific market is experiencing a "double whammy" in both stock and bond markets, with rising bond yields leading to significant declines in equity markets across the region [1][3][8]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield curve in the Asia-Pacific region is steepening, with 10-year and 30-year bond yields rising by 3 basis points [1][2]. - Japan's 40-year bond yield has reached 4% for the first time, while the 10-year Japanese government bond yield hit 2.330%, the highest level since February 1999 [2][7]. - The sell-off in Japanese bonds is driven by concerns over a proposed reduction in food sales tax, which may pressure public finances [2][9]. Group 2: Equity Market Impact - The equity markets are facing significant pressure, with the Nikkei index dropping nearly 1%, and if it closes lower today, it will mark a fourth consecutive decline [1][3]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea fell over 1.3%, while the Australian stock index dropped more than 0.7% [1][3]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are also experiencing declines, with the ChiNext index falling over 2% and the Shenzhen Component index down more than 1% [3][8]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Two main negative factors affecting the market are emerging from Japan and Greenland [4][9]. - In Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives for elections, which may impact bond yields and investment strategies [4][9]. - In Greenland, escalating tensions due to increased military presence from the U.S. and Denmark are affecting market sentiment and could lead to a decline in demand for U.S. assets [4][10]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Deutsche Bank suggests that the tensions surrounding Greenland could weaken the dollar's position, impacting transatlantic financial relations [5][10]. - The bank notes that European investors hold approximately $8 trillion in U.S. bonds and stocks, indicating a potential shift in capital flows due to geopolitical pressures [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the bond market driven by rising global risk aversion following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by U.S. President Trump, which has led to increased demand for U.S. Treasury futures and domestic bond futures [1][3][7]. Group 1: U.S. Bond Market Performance - On April 3, U.S. Treasury futures experienced significant gains across all maturities, with 2-year futures up by 0.16%, 5-year futures up by 0.48%, 10-year futures up by 0.74%, and long-term futures up by 1.32% [3][4]. - Since March 28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury futures have cumulatively risen nearly 2%, while long-term Treasury futures have increased over 3% [4][5]. Group 2: Domestic Bond Market Performance - The domestic bond market has also shown strong performance, with the 30-year Treasury futures rising by 0.86% on April 2 and over 1% on April 3. The 10-year futures increased by 0.51%, 5-year futures by 0.38%, and 2-year futures by 0.15% [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements - Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" has heightened market risk aversion, leading to a decline in U.S. stock futures and a drop in the dollar, while U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply and gold prices rose, indicating typical safe-haven trading behavior [7]. - The market sentiment is expected to remain under pressure, particularly for sectors with high exposure to external demand, although strong domestic demand could provide a counterbalance [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Outlook - The current volatility in the bond market has increased the operational difficulty for bond investors, necessitating a higher level of research and analysis from investment managers [8]. - Despite recent improvements in economic indicators, the overall impact of tariff policies on exports remains uncertain, and the bond market may lack strong upward or downward momentum in the short term [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is focusing on developing its fixed income and currency markets, recognizing the growing interest from global investors in Chinese opportunities, particularly through the Hong Kong market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Activity - The atmosphere at the World Economic Forum in Davos was notably different this year, with a more optimistic outlook among global participants regarding finding opportunities amid volatility, particularly in relation to China [1]. - Since the second half of last year, the securities market in Hong Kong has become increasingly active, with daily trading volumes reaching new highs, driven by strong interest from global investors in Chinese investments [1]. - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect program increased by 55% in 2024, indicating heightened activity from mainland Chinese investors in the Hong Kong market [1]. Group 2: Product Ecosystem and Diversification - HKEX is actively expanding its product ecosystem to enhance its resilience against market fluctuations and to align with evolving global investor demands [3]. - The fixed income and currency (FIC) markets are identified as key areas for future growth, with plans to develop a rich product ecosystem similar to that of the existing securities market [4]. - The mainland China's fixed income market has grown fivefold over the past decade, reaching $24.6 trillion, making it the second largest globally, which presents significant opportunities for HKEX [4]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Collaboration - HKEX is enhancing its fixed income and currency market infrastructure through partnerships, such as the collaboration with Xunqing Clearing Limited to improve post-trade securities infrastructure [9]. - The Bond Connect program has become a crucial channel for international investors to access the mainland fixed income market, with its northbound trading volume hitting new highs annually since its launch in 2017 [5]. - The nominal value of derivatives contracts settled by HKEX's OTC clearing company reached a record high of $1.19 trillion in 2024, reflecting a 142% increase from 2023 [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The development of the fixed income and currency markets is seen as a long-term effort, with the recent collaboration marking a significant breakthrough towards building a comprehensive fixed income product ecosystem [9]. - HKEX aims to enhance its position as an international financial center and a hub for offshore RMB, believing that a rich product ecosystem will facilitate global capital in seizing historic opportunities presented by China's economic growth [10].