2月27日，养殖板块盘中上扬，养殖ETF（159865）涨超1.4%，生猪行业产能持续去化。 太平洋证券指出，养殖业方面，生猪行业产能持续去化。截至2025年12月底，全国能繁母猪存栏较 去年1月下降2.9%。展望上半年，产能有望继续去化，主要因猪价节后或持续低迷、行业亏损扩大，以 及南方雨季疫情风险较高和政策调控压力。白羽肉鸡行业产能升至历史高位水平，商品代供给较为宽 松，鸡价中期或继续震荡。黄羽肉鸡行业产能则处于历史同期较低水平，预计上半年供给总体偏紧，鸡 价或持续在成本线上方震荡上涨。种植产业链方面，受消费旺季及惜售情绪影响，粮价近期震荡上涨。 中期来看，受国际大宗商品涨价传导，国内粮价有望跟随上涨。种业方面，随着中央一号文件推进生物 育种产业化，行业格局有望加速优化。此外，大多数养殖上市公司头均市值仍处于历史底部区间，长期 投资价值凸显。 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及畜禽饲料、 畜禽养殖、动物疫苗及兽药等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧业相关上市公司证券的整 体表现。该指数侧重于配置农业与生物科技领域，兼具周期性与成长性特征。 风 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the accelerated capacity reduction in the livestock sector, with significant capital inflow into the breeding segment, as evidenced by the livestock ETF (159865) experiencing over 180 million yuan in net inflow for two consecutive days [1] Group 2 - In the poultry farming sector, the frequent outbreaks of avian influenza overseas create uncertainty for the introduction of grandparent stock, which is expected to positively impact the price of the white feather chicken industry chain in the medium to long term [1] - In the pig farming sector, pig prices are declining, and group farms are increasing their output, but demand support is insufficient, leading to price fluctuations. There is still pressure on supply, and combined with policy guidance, capacity reduction may accelerate [1] - The animal health industry shows potential for continued growth, with new products being launched by various companies providing growth momentum [1] - In the seed industry, attention should be paid to the progress of biological breeding expansion [1] - In the pet sector, export order disruptions have limited impact, while domestic sales continue to show a growth trend, with domestic brands increasing their market share [1] Group 3 - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and vaccine veterinary medicine from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the livestock farming industry chain [1] - The constituent stocks cover the entire industry chain from upstream feed production to downstream livestock farming [1]

Group 1 - The Livestock ETF (159865) rose over 2.1%, attracting institutional attention due to capacity and policy developments [1] - In poultry farming, frequent outbreaks of avian influenza overseas create uncertainty for the introduction of grandparent stock, which is expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry chain prices in the medium to long term [1] - In the pig farming sector, pig prices are fluctuating, with group farms increasing output while smallholders continue to hold back on sales. Supply pressures remain, and policy guidance may accelerate capacity reduction [1] Group 2 - The animal health industry faces demand pressure from the breeding cycle perspective, but the launch of new products by various companies provides growth momentum [1] - In the seed industry, attention should be paid to the progress of biological breeding expansion and the promotion of genetically modified corn [1] - The pet sector is experiencing limited impact from export order disruptions, while the domestic market continues to show growth trends, with domestic brands increasing market share [1] Group 3 - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and animal health from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of related securities [1] - The index covers the entire industry chain from farming to animal health, providing a comprehensive representation of the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of capacity reduction in the pig farming sector is expected to continue, presenting opportunities for investment during market corrections [1]. Group 1: Industry Trends - According to Zhonghang Securities, the capacity reduction trend in the pig farming sector is likely to persist. Data from Mysteel indicates that the number of breeding sows in China has been increasing since 2024, with a decline expected starting in August 2025 [1]. - As of the end of November, the number of breeding sows in China has decreased by approximately 1.4% [1]. - Historical data shows that the current capacity reduction in the industry is relatively low, and with future pressure on pig prices, the trend of capacity reduction is expected to continue [1]. Group 2: ETF and Index Information - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary pharmaceuticals to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1]. - The constituent stocks of the index cover the upstream and downstream supply chain of the livestock industry, providing strong industry representation [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the livestock ETF (159865) has risen over 1.2% due to accelerated de-capacity in the pig farming sector, which may support expectations for the sector [1] - Guosen Securities indicates that leading companies in pig farming are experiencing rapid improvement in cash flow and are expected to transform into dividend stocks, with cost advantages becoming more pronounced amid industry-wide capacity reduction [1] - The feed industry is benefiting from the deepening industrialization of livestock and poultry farming, with clear division of labor, allowing leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [1] Group 2 - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary drug production from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of related securities [1] - The constituent stocks cover the entire livestock industry chain, demonstrating strong industry representativeness [1]

Group 1 - The livestock ETF (159865) rose over 1.2%, with institutions indicating that the accelerated reduction in pig production capacity may support sector expectations [1] - Guosen Securities predicts an imminent reversal in the livestock cycle, optimistic about the domestic meat and dairy sectors experiencing a synchronous upward trend, with livestock companies likely to see high elasticity recovery in performance [1] - Domestic beef production capacity reduction may reach levels comparable to the 2019 pig cycle, with a price turning point expected in 2025, potentially leading to continuous price increases until 2028 [1] Group 2 - Domestic raw milk prices have declined for nearly four years, leading to continuous losses and production capacity exit pressure, while the meat-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, likely accelerating the elimination of dairy cows and achieving "meat and milk resonance" [1] - In pig farming, leading enterprises are experiencing rapid cash flow improvement and are expected to transform into profitable entities, with cost advantages becoming more pronounced amid industry-wide capacity contraction [1] - In poultry farming, supply fluctuations are limited, and market conditions are expected to improve with demand recovery, allowing leading companies to achieve higher cash flow dividend returns due to excess unit returns [1] Group 3 - The feed industry benefits from the deepening industrialization of livestock and poultry farming, with clear industry division of labor, and leading feed companies are expected to further enhance competitive advantages through technology and service [1] - The pet sector is emerging as a high-quality consumption track benefiting from long-term demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly rising, and leading pet food companies showing strong mid-term performance growth certainty [1] Group 4 - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary drug production to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [2] - The constituent stocks cover the entire livestock industry chain, demonstrating strong industry representativeness [2]

Group 1 - The swine industry has entered a regulatory period, with relevant departments strengthening control measures to manage pig prices through capacity reduction [1] - In the short term, pig prices are under downward pressure due to an expected increase in pig slaughter volume in the second half of the year and the potential digestion of large pig inventories [1] - The current round of regulatory measures is unlikely to be very aggressive, with a focus on continuous policy adjustments to restore pig prices to a reasonable range [1] Group 2 - Opportunities in the swine industry are expected to arise from performance realization driven by low costs and value reassessment due to increased dividends [1] - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock breeding and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers multiple sub-sectors, including livestock breeding, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the pig farming industry has officially entered a phase of loss and capacity reduction, with significant supply pressure expected to continue in the coming years [1] - Longjiang Securities predicts that the limited improvement in industry debt ratios and liquidity ratios may lead to an accelerated capacity reduction [1] - The interaction between industry capacity regulation policies and loss-driven capacity reduction may result in a more thorough capacity reduction cycle compared to 2021 and 2023 [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF (159865) has seen an inflow of 301 million shares and a net inflow of 244 million shares, indicating strong capital interest in livestock assets [1] - The Livestock ETF tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers multiple sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Group 1 - The swine breeding industry has entered a phase of loss and capacity reduction, with significant supply pressure expected to persist into the first half of 2026 due to both forward-looking indicators and seasonal demand declines [1] - The ongoing process of capacity reduction is influenced by the large variance in breeding costs, with less competitive operators likely to exit the market first, leading to a more optimized competitive landscape in the industry [1] - Companies with cost advantages and strong cash flow are expected to experience longer profit cycles in the current downturn [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock breeding and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock sector [1] - The CSI Livestock Index covers multiple sub-sectors, including livestock breeding, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure in the pig farming industry remains significant in Q4, but ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to positively impact pig prices in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Since May 2024, pig production capacity has increased, leading to continued supply growth expected in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, which will exert pressure on pig prices [1] - The industry is actively implementing "anti-involution" strategies, focusing on controlling production capacity, reducing weight, and limiting second breeding [1] Policy and Market Impact - The enforcement of policies is expected to intensify, coupled with recent low pig prices and increasing losses, which may accelerate the reduction of production capacity [1] - A new upward trend in pig prices is anticipated in the second half of next year [1] Industry Index Overview - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock sector [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers various sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]