证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 2025 年风电需求超预期，26 年高景气 有望延续 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 03 日│中国内地 动态点评 电力设备与新能源 增持 (维持) 2025 年回顾：陆风装机超预期，风机出海加速推进 陆风装机超年初预期，海风需求有待释放。根据 CWEA《2025 年中国风电 吊装容量统计简报》，2025 年国内新增装机 130.8GW，同比+49.9%，其 中陆风 125.2GW，同比+53.4%，高于年初 CWEA 预期（95-100GW）， 主要系风电机制电价较高，业主新能源项目开发向其倾斜；海风 5.6GW， 同比持平，不及年初预期（10-15GW），主要由于部分项目开工建设进度 较慢。风机大型化持续推进，2025 年国内新增装机平均单机容量 7.2MW， 同比 18.3%，其中陆上 7.1MW，同比+20.1%，主要系大基地项目规模起量， 10MW 及以上机型占比为 24.8%，同比+19.6pct；海风 10.1MW，同比+1.4%。 风机竞争格局持续优化。2025 年，国内实现新增装机的整机厂共 10 家，同 比减少 3 家，CR7 为 91.8%，同比+1.9p ...

证券代码：603985 证券简称：恒润股份 公告编号：2026-006 江阴市恒润重工股份有限公司 2025年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 本次业绩预告的适用情形：净利润实现扭亏为盈。 二、上年同期经营业绩和财务状况 （一）利润总额：-15,900.80万元。归属于母公司所有者的净利润：-13,828.95万元。归属于母公司所有 者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润：-13,768.01万元。 （二）每股收益：-0.3137元。 三、本期业绩实现扭亏为盈的主要原因 ● 经江阴市恒润重工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）财务部门初步测算，预计2025年度实现归属于母 公司所有者的净利润为6,500.00万元到8,000.00万元，与上年同期相比，将实现扭亏为盈；预计2025年度 实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为7,000.00万元到8,500.00万元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日。 （二）业绩预告情况 经公司财务 ...

格隆汇1月29日丨恒润股份（维权）(603985.SH)公布，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年度实现归 属于母公司所有者的净利润为6500万元到8000万元，与上年同期相比，将实现扭亏为盈；预计2025年度 实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为7000万元到8500万元。 本期业绩实现扭亏为盈的主要原因：2025年度公司实现扭亏为盈，主要得益于公司风电板块业务的回 暖、风电大兆瓦法兰、轴承等新产品的产能释放与量产爬坡以及算力板块业务业绩贡献提升等。报告期 内，风电行业景气度回升，公司的风电板块业务订单和销售毛利均实现增长。同时，全资子公司江阴市 恒润环锻有限公司、江阴市恒润传动科技有限公司产能利用率显著提升，有效降低了单位生产成本。公 司积极调整产品结构，聚焦高附加值产品的研发与生产。公司子公司部分型号的新产品陆续通过认证， 逐步投向市场，其中风电大兆瓦法兰、主轴轴承产品已具备批量供应市场的能力，随着订单的增长，业 绩贡献不断显现。另一方面，报告期内，上海润六尺加大市场客户开发力度，积极拓展融资渠道，业务 规模持续增长，业绩贡献逐步提升。 ...

南财智讯1月29日电，恒润股份发布年度业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 6500.00万元—8000.00万元，预计同比扭亏；预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益 的净利润为7000.00万元—8500.00万元。2025年度公司实现扭亏为盈，主要得益于公司风电板块业务的 回暖、风电大兆瓦法兰、轴承等新产品的产能释放与量产爬坡以及算力板块业务业绩贡献提升等。报告 期内，风电行业景气度回升，公司的风电板块业务订单和销售毛利均实现增长。同时，全资子公司江阴 市恒润环锻有限公司、江阴市恒润传动科技有限公司产能利用率显著提升，有效降低了单位生产成本。 公司积极调整产品结构，聚焦高附加值产品的研发与生产。公司子公司部分型号的新产品陆续通过认 证，逐步投向市场，其中风电大兆瓦法兰、主轴轴承产品已具备批量供应市场的能力，随着订单的增 长，业绩贡献不断显现。另一方面，报告期内，上海润六尺加大市场客户开发力度，积极拓展融资渠 道，业务规模持续增长，业绩贡献逐步提升。 ...

Core Insights - The wind power industry is expected to experience a synchronous recovery in both domestic and international markets, driven by changes in demand and industry dynamics, creating new investment opportunities [1] - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the wind power sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1] Group 1: Industry Review - Since 2021, China's onshore wind power has entered a parity era, with rapid cost reductions achieved through large-scale and technological advancements, leading to continuous installation exceeding expectations [3] - The competition within the main engine segment has significantly compressed the profitability of the industry chain, resulting in a situation where growth in volume does not equate to growth in profit [3] - The price of the onshore wind industry chain has been recovering since the second half of 2024, with profitability expected to improve in 2025 as shipment volumes increase [3][4] Group 2: Onshore Wind Power Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that new onshore installations in China will reach 120 GW, a year-on-year increase of 10%, setting a new historical high [4] - The industry chain prices are expected to have solid support, leading to significant recovery in main engine profits, with component segments showing notable operational leverage [4] - The CAGR for new onshore installations in emerging markets is projected to be 17% from 2024 to 2030, with domestic manufacturers expected to see substantial growth in export profits [4] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Outlook - The report forecasts that new offshore installations in China will rise to a range of 11-15 GW in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of over 40% [5] - The national offshore wind project development is expected to commence in 2026, with a total of 70-100 GW of new offshore installations projected during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - The global offshore wind market is anticipated to see steady growth in orders and construction demand, particularly in Europe, where supply constraints for cables and piles are expected [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the main engine segment such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Sany Renewable Energy, while component manufacturers like Delijia and Jinlei Co. are also highlighted [6] - In the offshore wind sector, companies such as Dajin Heavy Industry, Haili Wind Power, and Oriental Cable are recommended for investment consideration [6]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of New Energy Bearings by the company is strategically aligned with its existing wind power business, focusing on enhancing its competitive advantage in the wind power core component sector [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The core products of New Energy Bearings include yaw bearings, pitch bearings, and main shaft bearings for wind turbine units, which have a high strategic synergy with the company's current wind power operations [1] - The company aims to expand production capacity, upgrade technology, and integrate resources in the wind power bearing product line following the acquisition [1] Group 2: Future Plans - The company currently has no plans for production layout in the robotics bearing business in the short term [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated high growth in performance, driven by industry recovery and product structure upgrades. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 664 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [7] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 28.9%, with a net profit margin of 18.9%. The report highlights that the improvement in profitability is attributed to the recovery in the wind power bearing industry and the optimization of the product structure [7] - The report projects significant growth in net profit for 2025 and 2026, with estimates of 840 million yuan and 1.18 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2.946 billion yuan in 2024, 4.870 billion yuan in 2025, 6.289 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.677 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 65.38 million yuan in 2024, 842.02 million yuan in 2025, 1.18398 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.45199 billion yuan in 2027, showcasing a robust growth trajectory [8] - The report indicates a dynamic P/E ratio of 25.64 for 2025, 18.24 for 2026, and 14.87 for 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation relative to future earnings [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated high growth in performance, driven by industry recovery and product structure upgrades [1] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 3.618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.1% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 664 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround [7] - The company is benefiting from the increased demand for high-value products, particularly main shaft bearings, and an accelerated delivery schedule [7] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 29.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.8 percentage points [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 2.824 billion, 2.946 billion, 4.352 billion, 5.025 billion, and 5.706 billion yuan respectively, with a significant year-on-year growth of 47.75% expected in 2025 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 374.84 million, 65.38 million, 693.16 million, 883.06 million, and 1,037.40 million yuan for the same years, with a remarkable increase of 960.24% in 2025 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.91, 0.16, 1.67, 2.13, and 2.51 yuan respectively, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [1][8] - The company’s dynamic P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 32, 25.13, and 21.39 respectively, suggesting an attractive valuation [1][8]

Core Viewpoint - Central enterprises in China are actively participating in the energy transition, contributing to the construction of a green energy network that supports high-quality economic development through clean and low-carbon energy sources [1][12]. Group 1: Energy Infrastructure Development - The "Ningdian into Xiang" project, a key initiative in the national "14th Five-Year" electricity plan, has successfully transmitted over 900 million kilowatt-hours of green electricity to Hunan as of September 25 [5]. - The project, operational since June 29, is expected to deliver over 36 billion kilowatt-hours of green electricity annually, significantly alleviating power shortages in Hunan [5]. - Multiple energy arteries are under construction, including the Huaneng Longdong Energy Base and the Xinjiang Tianshan North Slope Energy Base, which will enhance electricity supply capabilities in their respective regions [6]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - Central enterprises are leveraging cutting-edge technologies to support major energy projects, such as the world's largest 26-megawatt offshore wind turbine developed by Dongfang Electric Group [7]. - The turbine's components are fully sourced from domestic suppliers, showcasing China's advancements in self-sufficient energy technology [8]. - Breakthroughs in core technologies, such as the laser-etched silicon steel developed by Baosteel, could lead to significant energy savings, equivalent to the output of a Three Gorges power station [9]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Integration - The Southern Power Grid has established 15,700 charging stations and over 110,000 charging guns, achieving full coverage of charging facilities in rural areas [11]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is enhancing green energy systems on Weizhou Island, contributing over 54 million kilowatt-hours of clean electricity annually [11]. - The integration of photovoltaic power generation with livestock farming in the Hongyuan Yak Photovoltaic Power Station exemplifies sustainable development practices [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The energy transition is expected to reshape urban landscapes and improve the quality of life for citizens, with a focus on higher proportions of renewable energy and deeper electricity market reforms [12].

Core Viewpoint - Hengrun Co., Ltd. reported a significant improvement in its performance for the first half of 2025, driven by the recovery in the wind power industry and the continuous growth of its computing power business, showcasing the effectiveness of its "wind power + computing power" dual-drive strategy [1] Group 1: Wind Power Business Performance - The global wind power industry continued to show resilience, with strong demand for high-specification components, leading to a robust recovery in Hengrun's wind power segment [2] - The company's wind power orders and sales gross profit increased simultaneously, with its subsidiaries achieving higher capacity utilization, effectively reducing unit production costs [2] - Hengrun's high-value products, such as large megawatt flanges and main shaft bearings, have begun mass production, contributing to improved profitability [2] - Hengrun is one of the few companies capable of manufacturing offshore wind turbine flanges of 12MW and above, solidifying its competitive advantage in high-end wind power components [2] - The company plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan in a new project to produce wind power gearbox components, enhancing its core product matrix and supporting long-term development [3] - The global wind energy council predicts that the global wind power installed capacity will reach 138GW in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 8.8% from 2025 to 2030, indicating a growing demand for high-precision wind power components [3] Group 2: Computing Power Business Development - Hengrun's computing power business has emerged as a second growth curve, with its subsidiary Shanghai Runliuchu Technology Co., Ltd. showing improved performance and contributing significantly to profits [4] - Shanghai Runliuchu focuses on the intelligent computing industry, including the sale of new intelligent computing servers and the construction and operation of computing centers, with rapid business growth [4] - The demand for computing power is increasing exponentially due to the deepening of China's digital economy strategy and the implementation of initiatives like "East Data West Computing" [4][5] - The company aims to accelerate its response to national policies supporting the digital economy and deepen strategic cooperation with major computing server manufacturers [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - With the acceleration of global energy transition and the deepening of the digital economy, Hengrun's two business segments are expected to form a synergistic growth pattern, driving sustainable and healthy growth in overall performance [6]