近日，恒润股份（603985）发布2025年半年度报告，期内公司业绩表现向好，实现营业收入20.73亿 元，同比大幅增长223.44%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润4016.65万元，实现扭亏为盈。这一亮眼成绩 的背后，得益于风电行业景气度回升带来的业务回暖，及算力业务的持续发力，公司"风电+算力"双轮 驱动战略成效显著。 风电行业回暖叠加产能释放，高附加值产品贡献突出 2025年上半年，全球风电行业延续增长韧性，海上风电作为清洁能源开发的核心赛道，需求端持续释放 高规格零部件采购需求。在此背景下，恒润股份风电板块业务迎来强劲复苏。 资料显示，上海润六尺聚焦智能算力产业，业务涵盖新型智算服务器销售、智算中心建设与运维、算力 服务等，同时为高校科研团队提供垂直化模型咨询服务。2025年上半年，上海润六尺加大市场开拓力 度，积极拓展融资渠道，业务规模快速增长。公司与国内主流算力服务器厂商建立深度战略合作，并在 智算中心建设与算力租赁服务上实现突破，客户群体与业务覆盖范围持续扩大。 从行业背景来看，我国数字经济战略持续深化，"东数西算"工程推进、"人工智能+"行动落地，推动算 力需求呈指数级增长。算力作为数字经济的核 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hengrun Co., Ltd. reported significant growth in its first half of 2025, driven by the recovery in the wind power sector and the rapid growth in computing power demand, showcasing a strong dual-driven business model of "wind power + computing power" [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 2.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 223.44% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 40.1665 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - Gross margin improved to 8.21%, reflecting significant year-on-year enhancement [2] Group 2: Wind Power Sector - The recovery in the wind power sector contributed to increased orders and sales margins, with full subsidiaries showing improved capacity utilization [2] - New high-value products such as large megawatt flanges and main shaft bearings have begun mass production, contributing to performance [2] - The wind power industry is on the verge of a profitability reversal, with market expectations for improved competition and demand reflected in stock prices [2] Group 3: Computing Power Sector - The computing power segment saw significant revenue growth, with Shanghai Runliuchu achieving operating revenue of 1.039 billion yuan and net profit of 22.4573 million yuan, a substantial increase from the previous year [2] - The demand for computing power is expected to rise due to the continuous upgrade of AI models and improved chip performance [3] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, achieving a decrease in sales and management expense ratios to 0.26% and 2.79%, respectively [4] - Research and development investment reached 41.8965 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.51%, enhancing the company's R&D capabilities [4] - Strategic partnerships, such as the one with Tiandun Data, aim to advance the construction of an intelligent computing power ecosystem [4] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The Global Wind Energy Council predicts that global wind power installed capacity will reach 138 GW in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% from 2025 to 2030 [5] - The national "14th Five-Year Plan" includes computing power as a core area of new infrastructure, with policies promoting the integration of AI and computing power [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the synergy of wind power and AI computing power industries, entering a new rapid growth cycle [5]

Core Viewpoint - Hengrun Co., Ltd. reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, driven by the recovery in the wind power sector and the substantial contribution from its computing power business [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 2.073 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 223.44% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 40.1665 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 8.21%, showing significant year-on-year enhancement [2]. Wind Power Sector - The recovery in the wind power sector led to increased orders and sales margins, with full subsidiaries significantly improving capacity utilization, thereby reducing unit production costs [2]. - The company focused on high-value-added products, with new products like large megawatt flanges and main shaft bearings entering mass production and gradually contributing to performance [2]. - According to CICC's research, the wind power sector is on the verge of a profitability reversal, with market expectations for improved competition dynamics and profitability in the coming quarters [2]. Computing Power Business - Hengrun has established a dual-driven business model of "wind power + computing power," with its subsidiary Shanghai Runliuchu returning to normal operations since the second half of 2024 [3]. - In the first half of 2025, Shanghai Runliuchu achieved operating revenue of 1.039 billion yuan and a net profit of 22.4573 million yuan, showing substantial growth compared to the previous year [3]. - Longcheng Securities highlighted the increasing demand for computing power driven by advancements in AI models and chip performance, indicating ongoing investment opportunities in the computing power sector [3]. Research and Development - The company has intensified its R&D efforts, aligning with its goal of turning losses into profits, and has implemented five key measures to enhance sales and profits [4]. - R&D investment totaled 41.8965 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.51% [4]. - The company has transitioned from "static" forging to "dynamic" deep processing in the wind power bearing sector, supporting major domestic manufacturers [4]. Industry Outlook - The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) predicts that global wind power installed capacity will reach 138 GW in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% from 2025 to 2030, indicating ongoing benefits for the wind power industry [4]. - Shanghai Runliuchu is actively collaborating with leading computing power server manufacturers to support the national computing power network layout, in line with the country's digital economy strategy [5].

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 35 million to 45 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [1] - The improvement in performance is primarily driven by the recovery in the wind power sector, the release of production capacity for large megawatt flanges and bearings, and significant growth in the performance of its subsidiary, Runliuchi Technology [1][4] - The company is entering a new growth cycle, confirmed by the dual growth in wind power and computing power businesses [1][4] Group 2 - The wind power industry has seen a significant improvement in market conditions, with a 134.21% year-on-year increase in new installations, totaling 46.28 GW from January to May 2025 [2] - The company is one of the few manufacturers capable of producing offshore tower flanges of 12 MW and above, with accelerated production capacity and increased sales margins in the wind power segment [2] - The company’s main shaft bearings have passed bench tests and are now in mass production, enhancing its competitiveness in high-end equipment [2] Group 3 - Runliuchi Technology, a subsidiary of the company, reported a revenue of 250 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, exceeding the total revenue for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 2800% [3] - The company has established a comprehensive service system for computing power, providing customized support for various industries, including internet, finance, and smart manufacturing [3] - The domestic computing power leasing market is expected to exceed 211.6 billion yuan by the end of 2025, driven by government subsidies and increasing demand for AI computing power [3] Group 4 - The company’s performance forecast for the first half of 2025 indicates a formal entry into a profit cycle, with significant results from its dual-driven strategy in wind power and computing power [4] - Long-term benefits are anticipated from the synergy between wind power policy incentives and the explosive demand for AI computing power, leveraging the company’s technological and production advantages [4]

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 35 million and 45 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the same period last year [1][2] - The net profit for the same period last year was a loss of 31.96 million yuan, with a total profit of -35.88 million yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of -40.82 million yuan [1][2] - The main reasons for the turnaround include the release of production capacity for new products in the wind power sector and improved performance in the computing power segment [2] Group 2 - The wind power sector has seen a recovery in market conditions, leading to increased orders and gross profit for the company's wind power business [2] - The company's subsidiaries have significantly improved their capacity utilization rates, effectively reducing unit production costs [2] - The company has actively adjusted its product structure to focus on high value-added products, with new products gradually entering the market and contributing to performance [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [4][23]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for wind power equipment, particularly in the main shaft bearing segment, which is projected to see significant growth due to the rising installation of wind power [10][15]. - The company has a well-established position in the wind power bearing market, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and improving production efficiency [7][10]. - The report forecasts substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of 43.4 billion, 52.0 billion, and 59.1 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 20%, and 14% respectively [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Main Shaft Bearing Volume Growth and Gearbox Bearing Layout - The company is positioned as an expert in the rotary support field, focusing on wind power bearings, including main shaft bearings and gearbox bearings [7]. - The report highlights the expected increase in demand for main shaft bearings due to the upcoming peak in wind power installations in 2025, with a projected increase in domestic wind power installations reaching 125 GW, a year-on-year increase of over 50% [10][15]. - The company has made significant investments in high-end processing equipment to enhance production efficiency and product quality [10][14]. 2. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a dramatic increase in net profit, projecting figures of 4.6 billion, 5.9 billion, and 7.1 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 601%, 30%, and 20% respectively [19][23]. - The expected improvement in profit margins is attributed to the higher value and profitability of TRB main shaft bearings, alongside the company's efforts to optimize its product structure and extend its supply chain [15][19]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the gearbox bearing segment to become a second growth driver for the company, with expected production ramp-up in 2025 and 2026 [15][19].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with a net profit increase of 429% year-on-year, driven by the expansion of main shaft bearings and a favorable wind power market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.32%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 82.56% to 65.38 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 926 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 107.46%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 170 million yuan, marking a 429.28% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 26.71%, up 7.48 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 18.95%, an increase of 30.24% year-on-year [1]. Expense Ratios - The expense ratio for 2024 was approximately 10.20%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points year-on-year, with specific rates for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses [2]. - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio was about 10.10%, down 2.82 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost management [2]. Industry Outlook - The domestic wind power industry is experiencing an upturn, with predictions of 105-115 GW of new installations in 2025, driven by both onshore and offshore wind projects [2]. - The long-term forecast for 2024-2026 anticipates an average annual new installation capacity of 100 GW in the wind power sector, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% [2]. Domestic Substitution and Product Upgrades - The wind power bearing sector is seeing accelerated domestic substitution, particularly for main shaft bearings, which are characterized by high technical barriers and added value [3]. - As wind turbines become larger, there is a shift in technology routes among downstream customers, leading to increased penetration of tapered roller bearings (TRB) and independent pitch bearings [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are approximately 463 million yuan, 556 million yuan, and 756 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 608%, 20%, and 36% respectively [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are estimated at 24, 20, and 15 times for the respective years [4].

Group 1: Company Overview - The company has completed the industrial chain layout for bearing components, including forging and rolling elements, achieving a complete process from design to production and testing [2] - The company has established high-end imported equipment production lines for precision bearing products, laying a foundation for market expansion [2] Group 2: Technological Advantages - The company is the first in the industry to use a non-soft belt heat treatment process, which offers significant cost advantages in material selection and processing costs per ton, positively impacting cost control and profit margins [2] Group 3: Production and Demand - The product shipment schedule for 2025 will depend on downstream customer requirements, with a significant increase expected in the proportion of spindle bearing products based on customer orders [3] - The company currently has sufficient production orders and is maximizing capacity through equipment adjustments, procurement, and process optimization to meet delivery requirements [3] Group 4: Customer Development - The company is making steady progress in developing downstream customers, maintaining close communication and cooperation with leading wind turbine manufacturers and steadily advancing with gearbox bearing customers [3]