上海跟进放松，地产投资机会怎么看？20250825 摘要 上海楼市新政出台后，地产板块处于牛市背景下，预计会有补涨或跟涨的趋势。 政策落地、半年报披露期内企业积极变化等催化剂将推动地产板块持续上涨。 推荐关注存量地产的三个方向：商业地产、物业管理和二手房中介。重点推荐 标的包括新城控股（预计有接近 3 倍的空间）、华润置地、我爱我家、中国金 贸、万物云和绿城服务。 上海楼市新政与北京政策在限购放松和公积金政策方面相似，但上海作 为房产税试点城市，政策力度和时间节点超预期，预计新房成交量首周 可能翻倍，三四季度保持良好成交量。 北京 2025 年 8 月 8 日出台的房地产政策效果低于去年 9 月 24 日的政 策，主要原因是去年政策是包括限购、契税减免、增值税减免以及房贷 利率下降等多方面措施的组合拳。 上海在本轮房地产周期中表现领先，通过放宽户口限制和引进新兴产业， 在同样力度的房地产政策下，预期效果弹性更大，新房成交量可能环比 翻倍，二手房成交量可能环比提升 30%至 40%。 预计上海此次房地产政策将具有较强的持续性，参考北京经验，政策效 果至少能维持一个季度左右，即整个金九银十期间，并且到 11 月份 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Beijing Real Estate Policy Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the real estate market in Beijing, with implications for Shanghai and Shenzhen as well. The focus is on the new policies aimed at revitalizing the real estate sector due to declining transaction volumes and land sales issues [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Beijing's New Real Estate Policy**: The policy allows families outside the Fifth Ring Road to purchase an unlimited number of homes, and it relaxes public housing fund policies, increasing loan limits for second homes from 1 million to 1.4 million [3][10]. 2. **Reasons for Policy Implementation**: The primary reasons for the new policy include poor land sales performance and a significant drop in second-hand home transactions, which fell below the critical threshold of 15,000 units in July [4][8]. 3. **Impact on Market Dynamics**: The new policy is expected to stimulate demand from high-net-worth individuals and improve market conditions, shifting the investment logic from preemptive buying to a recovery phase [5][18]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: The call recommends focusing on "I Love My Home" (a second-hand housing agency) and "New Town Holdings" (commercial real estate), predicting over 50% and potential doubling in stock prices, respectively [6][20]. 5. **Commercial Real Estate Opportunities**: With declining interest rates, commercial real estate is seen as a significant investment opportunity, with companies like New Town Holdings and China Resources Land highlighted as key players [19][21]. 6. **Market Performance Comparison**: In July, Beijing's second-hand home transactions dropped to 12,784 units, while Shanghai maintained a stronger performance with 19,337 units sold [7][11]. 7. **Future Policy Directions**: Future policies may include further relaxations in purchase restrictions, public housing fund policies, and adjustments to land supply to stimulate market activity [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Regional Focus**: Areas such as Haidian and Changping near the Fifth Ring Road are expected to benefit significantly from the new policies due to their strong purchasing power [9][12]. - **Long-term Market Outlook**: While short-term effects are anticipated, the long-term outlook suggests a continued divergence in market performance across different regions, with only select areas showing substantial recovery [11][12]. - **Potential for Further Policy Changes**: The call indicates that both Shanghai and Shenzhen are likely to follow suit with their own policy adjustments, albeit with different approaches and timelines [2][15][16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the real estate market in Beijing and its implications for the broader industry.