Core Viewpoint - Dongguan has introduced significant real estate policies aimed at boosting market confidence through various measures, including home purchase subsidies and increased housing provident fund support [1][3]. Demand-Side Measures - The new policy includes a temporary home purchase subsidy of 2% of the total contract price, capped at 30,000 yuan, for buyers of newly built commercial housing who complete contracts and pay taxes by March 31, 2026 [1][3]. - The maximum loan amount for first and second homes has been raised to 1.5 million yuan, with a 50% increase in loan limits for those purchasing designated affordable housing [3][4]. - The criteria for recognizing first-time homebuyers have been adjusted to focus on the location of the purchased property rather than the entire city [3]. Supply-Side Measures - Dongguan has implemented a mechanism to adjust land supply based on the inventory and absorption rates of new commercial housing, pausing new land sales for residential and commercial properties if the absorption period exceeds 36 months [4][6]. - The aim is to reduce new housing supply to alleviate inventory pressure and stabilize market expectations [4]. Market Context - The backdrop for these policies is a sluggish real estate market, with a 55% decrease in new residential supply and a 12% drop in residential transactions in August 2023 compared to the previous month [6]. - The average price of second-hand homes fell to 13,400 yuan per square meter, marking a 3% decline and the lowest monthly average in five years [6]. Broader Trends - Other regions in China, such as Henan and Fujian, are also implementing similar home purchase subsidies to stimulate the real estate market, indicating a nationwide trend to support housing demand [8][9]. - The effectiveness of these subsidies is seen as potentially short-term and localized, with long-term market stability dependent on broader economic factors [9].

Core Viewpoint - Dongguan has introduced significant real estate policies aimed at boosting market confidence and stimulating housing demand through various measures, including cash subsidies for homebuyers [2][5] Group 1: Policy Measures - The new policy includes a cash subsidy of 2% of the total purchase price, capped at 30,000 yuan, for homebuyers who sign contracts between September 25, 2025, and December 31, 2025, and pay the deed tax by March 31, 2026 [2] - Dongguan has increased the maximum loan amount for first and second homes to 1.5 million yuan and raised the loan limit for those purchasing affordable housing by 50% [3] - The city has adjusted the criteria for recognizing first-time homebuyers, changing the review scope from the entire city to the specific town or district where the property is located [3] Group 2: Market Context - The real estate market in Dongguan has shown weak performance, with new residential supply dropping by 55% in August and transaction volumes hitting a near-term low [5] - The average price for second-hand homes fell to 13,400 yuan per square meter, marking a 3% decrease from the previous month, indicating ongoing price declines in the market [5] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with many potential buyers waiting for promotional offers, which has contributed to a subdued market atmosphere [5] Group 3: Broader Trends - Other regions in China, such as Henan and Guangxi, are also implementing similar cash subsidy programs to stabilize their real estate markets, reflecting a nationwide trend to support housing demand [6][7] - The introduction of cash subsidies is seen as a way to stimulate demand in second and third-tier cities where the real estate market is underperforming [7] - Industry analysts suggest that while cash subsidies can provide short-term boosts to market activity, long-term stability will depend on broader factors such as price stabilization and improved supply-demand dynamics [7]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing a "price-for-volume" phenomenon, with the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities at 13,585 yuan per square meter in July 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.77% and a year-on-year decline of 7.32% [1][3] - Rental demand remains supported by graduation season, leading to a slight narrowing of the rental price decline in key cities, with an average rental price of 34.93 yuan per square meter per month, down 0.07% month-on-month and 3.81% year-on-year [1][3] - Core cities show some transaction activity in the second-hand housing market, but prices are under short-term pressure, with first-tier cities experiencing a month-on-month price drop of 0.61% [1][3] Price Trends - In July 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in the top ten cities decreased by 0.64% month-on-month and 5.10% year-on-year, with a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline by 0.2 percentage points [3] - Specific cities like Wuhan and Nanjing saw significant month-on-month declines of 1.17% and 0.95%, respectively, while Chengdu had the smallest decline at 0.20% [3][5] - Year-on-year, Wuhan and Nanjing experienced the largest declines at 9.66% and 9.52%, while Chengdu had the smallest decline at 1.46% [3][5] Transaction Volume - In July 2025, several cities reported significant year-on-year increases in transaction volume, with Hefei leading at 42.6%, followed by Xiamen at 23.4% and Jinan at 23.3% [8] - Conversely, cities like Fuzhou and Nanjing saw substantial declines in transaction volume, with Fuzhou down 24.9% and Nanjing down 29.9% [10]

Group 1 - In July, Shenzhen's new housing transaction volume decreased by 18.7%, while second-hand housing transaction volume increased by 3.4% [1] - A total of 14 new projects were approved for sale in July, with a total supply of 6,405 new homes, marking a 252.6% month-on-month increase [1] - The decline in new home transactions is attributed to the traditional off-peak sales season and adverse weather conditions affecting buyer enthusiasm [1] Group 2 - In July, the average transaction price for second-hand homes in Shenzhen was 52,987 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 1.3% month-on-month decline and a 3.6% year-on-year decline [2] - The decrease in average prices is linked to a cautious mindset among sellers and an increase in negotiation space due to reduced market activity [2] - The number of second-hand homes sold in July reached 5,624 units, with residential transactions accounting for 4,656 units, indicating a 5.4% month-on-month increase [2] Group 3 - The rental market in Shenzhen remains stable, with average rental prices in July at 74.9 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.4% month-on-month [3] - The average monthly rent per unit rose to 5,608 yuan, reflecting a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 0.9% year-on-year increase [3] - The rental market is experiencing a seasonal peak during the summer, with increased transactions in core areas like Futian and Luohu contributing to rising average rental levels [3]