本文源自：格隆汇 亚马逊(AMZN.US)盘前涨1.14%，报225.1美元。消息面上，有媒体援引消息人士称，OpenAI正与亚马 逊谈判，拟从亚马逊融资至少100亿美元，并使用亚马逊旗下亚马逊云服务(AWS)的自研人工智能芯片 Trainium。其中一位知情人士说，此次投资可能会使OpenAI的估值突破5000亿美元。同时也有助于亚马 逊扩展其在人工智能芯片领域的影响力，挑战英伟达和谷歌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has raised its operating profit forecast for Amazon for the fiscal quarter ending December to $26 billion, reflecting accelerated revenue growth from Amazon Web Services (AWS), improved delivery efficiency, and leverage from retail staffing [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - Revenue and profit forecasts for next year have been increased from $786 billion and $97 billion to $801 billion and $101 billion, respectively [1] - Earnings per share forecast has been raised from $7.43 to $7.75 [1] Group 2: Business Performance - The quarterly results indicate that increasing AWS capacity can drive growth, with strong demand for Trainium chips supporting a positive outlook for AWS business [1] - Amazon's e-commerce business continues to show strength amid growth in retail market share [1] Group 3: Target Price and Rating - The target price for Amazon has been increased from $272 to $303, based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 33 times for 2027 [1] - The "buy" rating has been reaffirmed by the bank [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures rising by 0.24%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.87%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.43% [1] - European indices are down, with Germany's DAX down by 0.47%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.32%, France's CAC40 down by 0.26%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.34% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.38% to $60.34 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.40% to $64.11 per barrel [4] Economic Events - The US stock market will enter winter time next week, adjusting trading hours, with pre-market trading from 5:00 PM to 10:30 PM Beijing time and regular trading from 10:30 PM to 5:00 AM Beijing time [4] Trade Relations - US Treasury Secretary stated that the US-China trade agreement could be signed as early as next week, with both sides agreeing to enhance economic cooperation [5] Corporate Earnings - ExxonMobil reported Q3 adjusted profits of $8.1 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, driven by increased production in Guyana and the Permian Basin [7] - Chevron's Q3 net profit was approximately $3.6 billion, a 20% year-over-year decline, but adjusted earnings per share surpassed expectations at $1.85 [8] - Apple reported Q4 earnings of $102.5 billion, a 7.9% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share of $1.85, exceeding analyst forecasts [9] - Western Digital's Q3 revenue grew by 27.4% to $2.82 billion, surpassing expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.78 [10] - Amazon's Q3 net sales increased by 13% to $180.2 billion, with AWS sales growing by 20%, marking the fastest growth in three years [11] - Vale's Q3 revenue rose by 9% to $10.42 billion, with net profit increasing by 78% to $2.744 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [12] Strategic Partnerships - NVIDIA announced collaborations with Samsung, SK Group, and Hyundai to build AI factories in South Korea, supplying over 260,000 accelerator chips [13] - Nokia's stock surged after NVIDIA agreed to invest $1 billion, positioning Nokia as a key player in the European AI sector [14]

此前，亚马逊盘前股价转跌。 据CCTV国际时讯， 美国多家公司的网络服务出现宕机，受影响的包 括亚马逊、罗宾汉（Robinhood）股票交易平台、Snapchat、Paypal旗下的Venmo移动支付服 务、以及加密货币平台Coinbase等。 据报道，亚马逊云服务(AWS)表示，确认依赖于美国东部1区的全球服务和功能已经恢复。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie expects Alibaba-W (09988) to see continued acceleration in cloud business growth this fiscal year, with diversified monetization opportunities potentially leading to long-term margin expansion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Macquarie has lowered its adjusted EBITA forecasts for Alibaba by 24% and 10% for the current and next fiscal years, reflecting increased spending in fast e-commerce and artificial intelligence training and inference [1] - The target price for Alibaba has been adjusted from HKD 229.1 to HKD 228.2 [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Despite potential larger losses from the rapid e-commerce summer activities, user traffic and transaction volume trends remain robust [1] - With a surge in AI adoption among Chinese enterprises, cloud demand is expected to boost Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth at a compound annual growth rate of 30% to 35% over the next few years [1] Group 3: Valuation Comparison - Macquarie believes that the market's current valuation assumption for Alibaba Cloud, contributing about 15% to 20% of the company's value, is overly conservative compared to Amazon Web Services (AWS), which is widely considered to account for over 50% of Amazon's equity value [1] - This indicates potential for narrowing the valuation gap with U.S. peers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie expects Alibaba's cloud business to continue accelerating growth this fiscal year, with diversified monetization opportunities potentially expanding long-term profit margins [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Macquarie has lowered its adjusted EBITA forecasts for Alibaba by 24% and 10% for the current and next fiscal years, reflecting increased spending in fast e-commerce and AI training and inference [1] - The target price for Alibaba has been adjusted from HKD 229.1 to HKD 228.2 [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Despite potential larger losses from the fast e-commerce summer activities, user traffic and transaction volume trends remain robust [1] - The firm anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% to 35% for Alibaba Cloud's revenue over the next few years, driven by a surge in AI adoption among Chinese enterprises [1] - Macquarie believes that the market's current valuation of Alibaba Cloud, contributing approximately 15% to 20% of the company's value, is overly conservative compared to Amazon Web Services (AWS), which is widely considered to account for over 50% of Amazon's equity value [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup expects Amazon's Q3 revenue and operating profit to likely exceed market consensus, with predictions of $179.53 billion and $20.176 billion respectively, compared to market forecasts of $177.745 billion and $19.708 billion [1] Group 1: Cloud Services - Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue growth and infrastructure capacity expansion are highlighted as key focus areas, with expectations for improvement as Project Rainier approaches and demand for generative AI remains strong [1] - Despite competitive concerns in cloud services, Amazon is still viewed as the preferred choice in the network industry due to its retail strength, sustained demand for cloud services, and margin expansion [1] Group 2: Retail Performance - Credit card data indicates a continuous growth in online wallet share, which is seen as positive data for Amazon, with attention on its impact on the agency-based business strategy [1] - The launch of ChatGPT is noted to facilitate instant checkout, further enhancing the retail experience [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Citigroup reaffirms a "Buy" rating for Amazon with a target price of $270 [1]

Core Insights - Microsoft's market capitalization has surpassed $4 trillion, overshadowing Amazon in the AI race, but the focus should shift from growth rates to deeper profitability structures in the AI-driven cloud competition [1] - The competition is not just about technology and growth but also about reshaping the profitability models of tech giants [1] Group 1: Microsoft and Google's Cloud Business - Microsoft and Google's cloud business are experiencing strong growth but face profit margin pressures, with Microsoft's "Intelligent Cloud" segment having a profit margin of 40.6% compared to 57.4% for its "Productivity and Business Processes" segment [2] - Google's cloud business has a profit margin of 20.7%, significantly lower than its "Google Services" segment at 40% [2] - The growth rates of cloud businesses for both companies are outpacing their higher-margin core businesses, with Microsoft cloud growing 26% and Google cloud growing 32% [2] Group 2: Amazon's Cloud Business - Amazon's AWS is the core profit engine, with an operating profit margin of 33%, while its e-commerce business has a profit margin of only 6.6% [3] - From 2017 to 2024, AWS's share of Amazon's total revenue is expected to rise from 9.8% to 17%, leading to an increase in overall operating profit margin from 2.3% to 10.7% [3] - AWS's backlog of future orders increased by 25% in the recent quarter, indicating potential for accelerated growth [3] Group 3: Market Perception and Future Potential - The market may be overly focused on current growth data for Amazon while underestimating its future potential and unique profit growth model [4] - There are common challenges across cloud service providers, including high capital expenditures for AI support that could pressure profit margins [3]

Core Insights - Amazon's cloud business revenue grew by 18% to $30.9 billion in Q2, exceeding market expectations of $30.8 billion, and now accounts for 18% of Amazon's total revenue [1] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) operating income was $10.2 billion, below the expected $10.9 billion, but remains the largest profit center for Amazon, which reported total operating income of $19.2 billion [1] - Alphabet reported its cloud computing revenue at $13.62 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 32% [1] - Microsoft disclosed its Azure and other cloud services revenue exceeded $75 billion, with a quarterly growth of 39% [1]

Group 1 - Amazon announced a $10 billion investment to expand its data center cluster in North Carolina, emphasizing its commitment to cloud computing and AI technology innovation [1] - The investment is expected to create 500 high-skilled jobs in the AWS data center supply chain [1] - North Carolina's Governor Josh Stein highlighted this as one of the largest investments in the state's history, promising high-paying jobs and economic boost for Richmond County [1] Group 2 - Amazon will collaborate with North Carolina educational institutions to enhance training programs and practical learning opportunities in the data center industry [1] - Synergy Research Group reported that the number of large data centers operated by hyperscale operators is projected to reach 1,136 by the end of 2024, more than doubling since 2019 [1] - The global cloud services market is currently dominated by Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, with the U.S. holding 54% of the total data center capacity [1]