专题：券商基金业2026新年寄语：逐梦未来，向光而行 2025年行情已然收官。回顾全球资本市场表现，多国股市延续了2024年的涨势。在全球央行掀起降息 潮、释放充裕流动性的背景下，多数市场实现上涨。然而，4月份受特朗普关税政策冲击，全球股市一 度大幅调整，美股等多个市场甚至陷入技术性熊市。 尽管如此，全球市场最终展现出较强韧性。在AI革命的推动下，多国股指大幅回升，美股、日股、欧 股、韩股均创历史新高，并推动MSCI全球指数在2025年再度实现两位数涨幅，上涨约20%，连续第三 年涨幅突破15%。这无疑受益于AI热潮的持续推动。 A股与港股表现也不俗：上证指数上涨近20%，重上4000点关口，虽在年底有所反复，但最终收出"11连 阳"，预示2026年行情可能延续牛市走势；创业板指数更是大涨50%，科技牛行情特征突出。 亚太股市方面，日本和韩国股市开启一轮波澜壮阔的上涨行情。有利的宏观环境及估值洼地优势，也增 强了欧洲股市对海外投资者的吸引力。在美联储降息三次的背景下，特朗普相关政策引发的资本外流， 不仅助推黄金等金属走出大幅上涨的牛市，也带动了墨西哥、巴西、哥伦比亚等拉美新兴经济体股市走 强。 MSCI亚太指 ...

【12月30日欧洲股市因金属价格与国防支出前景强劲上行】今年，金属价格飙升和国防大规模支出前 景，推动欧洲股市在创纪录年份中强劲上扬。欧洲斯托克600指数累计涨16%，屡创新高，美元计价下 跑赢标普500指数。银行板块领涨，年内暴涨65%，有望创1997年以来最大年度涨幅，得益于强劲盈利 和丰厚股东回报。展望明年，策略师称欧洲股市有多项有利因素，对科技股泡沫风险敞口较低。贝伦贝 格银行人士表示，美元走弱担忧、估值差距及正面宏观环境利好2026年欧洲股市，但企业盈利明年需回 升，股市才能再获良好表现。 ...

Group 1 - The European stock market has experienced a strong upward trend in 2023, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 16% and reaching record highs, outperforming the S&P 500 in dollar terms [1] - The banking sector has led the gains, surging by 65% this year, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1997, driven by robust earnings and substantial shareholder returns [1] - Strategists believe that several favorable factors will support the European stock market in 2024, including concerns over further dollar weakness, attractive valuation differences compared to the U.S., and a generally positive macroeconomic environment [1] Group 2 - For the European stock market to continue its strong performance, corporate earnings must rebound in the coming year [1]

对于投资者而言，2025 年将是这样一个年份：人工智能热潮的覆盖范围不断扩大，市场担忧情绪也愈 发强烈 —— 这种担忧不仅针对科技股是否存在泡沫，也关乎人工智能技术本身带来的颠覆性影响。 尽管谷歌母公司字母表、英伟达等科技巨头股价实现强劲上涨，但内存芯片、硬盘驱动器等行业 "隐形 赛道"，被证实是更优质的投资标的。与此同时，微软等资金雄厚的行业巨头，以及开放人工智能、安 索匹克等初创企业带来的竞争威胁，令那些被认为最易受到冲击的软件厂商承压。 随着美国股市牛市步入第四个年头，市场对于人工智能算力领域巨额投入的可持续性，以及这些投资能 否产生合理回报的担忧达到了前所未有的高度。 "市场对人工智能的乐观情绪浓厚，但同时也充斥着大量炒作成分。" 美国运通金融顾问公司首席市场 策略师安东尼・萨格林本表示，"2026 年的核心议题将是人工智能技术的价值兑现。那些超大规模云服 务商的投入能否产生可观的投资回报率？它们的利润增长能否持续提速？" 下文将梳理 2025 年科技行业最受关注的股市动态，并展望各领域在新一年的发展前景。 新型云服务商的焦虑 专为人工智能客户提供定制化云计算服务的新型云服务商，在 2025 年的大部 ...

来源：热点解码局 美联储年内三次降息累计75个基点，引发全球资本流动重构，对个人消费、企业融资及资产配置产生多 维度影响。 一、对个人的直接影响 消费成本降低 人民币相对美元升值，留学、旅游、海淘等跨境消费更便宜，赴美留学家庭年省上万元。 进口商品（如奢侈品、电子产品）价格下降，短期利好消费者。 理财收益变化 房贷压力缓解 国内降息空间打开，LPR下调可能减轻房贷、车贷月供压力（如100万房贷30年期月供或少150元）。 二、对企业的分化影响 利好领域 进口企业：人民币计价采购成本下降，短期利润提升。 美元负债企业：境外融资成本降低，存量美元债务利息支出减少。 新兴产业：外资流入可能推高新能源、半导体等成长赛道估值。 美元存款、美债及挂钩美元的理财产品收益率下降，需调整资产配置。 黄金、白银等避险资产受美元走弱支撑，但当前金价处历史高位，追涨需谨慎。 利空领域 美元计价出口企业：商品价格上升削弱国际竞争力，纺织、家电等劳动密集型行业承压。 全球资本流动 原材料进口企业：国际大宗商品涨价可能推高成本（如化工、航空物流）。 三、投资市场的机遇与风险 A股与港股 外资回流预期增强，科技成长股（AI、半导体）、利率敏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, domestic economic data shows marginal weakness, corporate profits have not significantly improved, and the stock index's short - term rebound should be viewed with caution; the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is approaching, a 25 - basis - point rate cut is likely, and gold will continue to oscillate at a high level and may face a directional choice [38]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the stock index's valuation will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade situations, and the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern; concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies have subsided, the Russia - Ukraine situation is expected to ease, and the expectation of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been fully digested, so there is a risk of a deep adjustment in the gold market [38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry Data - In November 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the contraction range for 8 consecutive months. Industrial production has warmed up, but demand is weak, external demand is under great downward pressure, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises remains weak [3]. Stock Index Fundamental Data - Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure, production costs are difficult to pass on to consumers, the phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits persists, and some industries are still in the active inventory reduction stage [15]. - The margin trading balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges slightly declined to 2457.665 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 663.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan [17]. Gold Fundamental Data - In October, the ADP employment in the US unexpectedly decreased, further strengthening the market's expectation of a rate cut in December. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December has risen to 89.2% [22]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have slowed down, and the inventory of New York COMEX gold has continued to decline, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [36]. Strategy Recommendation - In November, the official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but has been in the contraction range for 8 consecutive months. The domestic economic development is unbalanced with insufficient endogenous growth momentum and weak demand. The expectation of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve is strengthening, the external market is warming up, and concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble have temporarily eased. As the time window for the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, the market expects more growth - stabilizing policies. The stock index's short - term rebound should be viewed cautiously; the unexpected decline in US ADP employment in October has strengthened the market's expectation of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced on December 11. Given that the rate - cut expectation has been digested by the market, focus on the monetary policy statement, Powell's speech, and the change in the interest rate dot - plot. In the short term, Trump's statement about announcing the next Fed chairperson early next year has put pressure on the US dollar index, and gold is in a high - level oscillation [37]. Next Week's Focus - Important US data for November, such as imports and exports and CPI annual rate, as well as the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision [39]

隔夜，现货黄金震荡微涨0.13%，盘中一度下探至4175美元附近，但随后反弹至4219美元高点，表明买盘力量依然活跃，最终收报4208.60美元。今日欧 市盘中，黄金小幅上涨，目前在4218美元附近徘徊。 PCE数据成关键！ 隔夜，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，道指跌0.07%，纳指涨0.22%，标普500指数涨0.11%。 消息面上，重磅数据出炉，美联储降息预期持续升温。 北京时间12月4日晚间，美国劳工部发布的数据显示，在截至11月29日的一周内（该周包含感恩节假期），首次申请失业救济人数减少27000人至19.1万 人，创三年多以来最低水平，低于预期的22万人，前值由21.6万人修正为21.8万人。 报告还显示，美国持续申领失业金人数连续数周在190万关键关口上方震荡，失业者重新就业难度加大，美国劳动力市场仍面临结构性压力。 另据美国私人数据提供商Revelio Labs最新发布的数据，美国11月非农就业岗位减少9000，10月就业变化数据下修至减少1.55万个。 根据日程安排，美联储将于12月9日和10日举行下一次议息会议。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为87%，维持利率不 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has become the center of controversy following a critical article questioning its financial practices, leading to a significant drop in its stock price and raising concerns about the broader tech sector's valuation and potential bubble [2][3]. Financial Performance Concerns - The article claims Nvidia's accounts receivable surged to $33.4 billion, an 89% increase year-over-year, with an extended collection period [3] - Inventory rose by 32% to $19.8 billion, contradicting claims of a chip shortage [3] - Cash conversion rate was reported at only 75%, significantly below the semiconductor industry standard [3] Industry Dynamics - The article suggests a $610 billion circular financing scheme within the AI industry, where Nvidia invests in AI companies that promise cloud service expenditures, leading to a cycle of revenue confirmation without real economic activity [3] - A verification report argues that the claims of fraud are misinterpretations of normal operational capital increases during Nvidia's expansion phase [4] Market Reactions - Nvidia's stock price fluctuations post-earnings report are described as a common phenomenon where initial positive reactions are followed by sell-offs [4] - Analysts suggest that the probability of fraud is low and unnecessary, emphasizing Nvidia's strong market position and the positive implications of its financial data [4] Broader Market Context - The financial market has experienced volatility, with concerns about high tech stock valuations and liquidity issues exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts [5][6] - Recent reports indicate that several top investment firms have divested from high-priced tech stocks, including Nvidia, reflecting a broader skepticism about the sustainability of AI-related valuations [8] Future Outlook - Analysts express that the potential bursting of the tech bubble could stem from factors such as declining chip prices and underwhelming economic benefits from AI models [8] - Despite current market doubts, the long-term development trend of AI remains unchanged, with many AI-related companies showing stable profitability [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Due to the marginal weakening of domestic economic data and the need to digest external negative factors, the stock index will enter an adjustment phase from high - level oscillation; the hawkish speeches of Fed officials have further dampened the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, and the short - term rebound of gold may continue to adjust [44]. - Medium - to long - term: The valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, and the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term; with the fading of concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the narrowing space for further interest rate cuts by the Fed, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to October this year, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, with the decline expanding for 8 consecutive months; infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, turning negative for the first time since September 2020; manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, hitting a new low since February 2021 [6]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1. Enterprise Profit and Capital - In October this year, the scale of new loans and social financing declined significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of broad money supply M2 was 8.2%, and that of M1 was 6.2%, down 0.2 and 1 percentage points from the previous month respectively, and the gap between them widened again [19]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly declined to 24724.55 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 1676 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 554 billion yuan [23]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1. Interest Rate and Inflation - In September, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US was 119,000, far exceeding the expected 50,000. Many Fed officials made hawkish speeches, expressing concerns about high inflation, and the call against further interest rate cuts is rising. The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds is running at a high level [28]. 3.3.2. Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures are slowing down, and the inventory of COMEX gold in New York is continuously decreasing, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - The economic data in October this year generally weakened, with the year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment expanding, industrial production slowing down, and the growth rate of consumption declining marginally. In terms of enterprise profits, there is a differentiation among different industries. The decline in profits of upstream raw material processing industries has narrowed, while the profits of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries have maintained rapid growth. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure [43]. - Considering that the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, there is no pressure to achieve the expected annual development target, and the necessity of further strengthening macro - policies at the end of the year has decreased. Influenced by the continuous slump in the external market, there are concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble. With the marginal weakening of domestic economic data, the market expectation is gradually returning to reality, and the stock index may enter a phased adjustment in the short term [43]. - The minutes of the Fed meeting released hawkish signals. Many officials are concerned about high inflation and need to be cautious about further interest rate cuts. It implies that without sufficient evidence of an unexpected decline in inflation or continuous weakness in the labor market, the Fed may suspend interest rate cuts at the December meeting. Due to the shutdown of the US federal government, the November non - farm payrolls report has been postponed to December 16, meaning that there will be no new employment data for the Fed's December meeting, and the market has further reduced its bets on a December interest rate cut. In the short term, the internal differences within the Fed on future interest rate policies have increased, and the call against further interest rate cuts is rising, pushing up the US dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, and gold has come under pressure again in the short term [43].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.81% to close at 3939.81 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92% at 13080.49 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.16% to 3069.22 points [3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.9261 trillion, showing a slight increase of 15.3 billion compared to the previous day [3] Market Sentiment - The market performance was weaker than bullish expectations but stronger than bearish predictions [4] - The decline in the A-share market is seen as a reflection of the significant drop in the US stock market, indicating a transmission effect [5] Sector Performance - The technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector, particularly AI applications, showed relative strength despite the overall market weakness [5] - Key sectors such as software development, internet services, semiconductors, gaming, and cultural media demonstrated a trend of soft and hard integration [5] Individual Stock Movements - A notable number of stocks experienced declines, with nearly 4000 stocks falling and only about 1200 rising throughout the day [6] - Major contributors to the Shanghai market's performance included China Mobile, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Kweichow Moutai, while the Shenzhen market was supported by stocks like Northern Huachuang and Hikvision [6] Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector showed a slight increase of 0.16%, but leading stocks like CITIC Securities hit a new low of 28.22 yuan per share during this adjustment phase [6] - There is a concern regarding the lack of intervention from major financial players to stabilize the market, suggesting potential for further adjustments if the market continues to operate naturally [7]