Core Viewpoint - Sanhua Intelligent Controls achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.242 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.85% [1] - In Q3, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.132 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 43.81% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6.14% [1] Financial Performance - The company's Q3 performance showed steady growth, meeting expectations [1] - The main businesses in home appliances and automotive sectors are stable [1] Product Development and Innovation - In the first half of 2025, the company will focus on technical improvements for several key model products, collaborating with customers on the full range of product development, trial production, iteration, and sample delivery [1] - The company received high praise from customers and achieved a series of innovative results around existing products, enhancing overall product strength [1] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company holds a leading position in the global market for thermal management in new energy vehicles [1] - The robotics business has broad prospects and is expected to become the company's second growth curve [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with steady growth in profitability. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.24 billion yuan, up 40.85% year-on-year [4][7] - The company is making significant progress in its humanoid robot actuator business, which is expected to become a second growth curve for the company [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.13 billion yuan, up 43.81% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 28.02%, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous year [5] - The company has increased its R&D expenditure, particularly in new business areas such as robotics [5] Business Segment Performance - The home appliance and automotive segments are performing steadily, with the company focusing on market strategy adjustments and enhancing its overseas market presence [6] - In the automotive parts business, the company is implementing cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, achieving management effectiveness [6] - The humanoid robot actuator business has received high praise from clients, with several innovative achievements enhancing overall product capability [6] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in the thermal management field for new energy vehicles, with projected net profits attributable to shareholders of 4 billion yuan, 4.8 billion yuan, and 5.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][9]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs conducted a survey on the rapidly growing humanoid robot sector in China, involving nine key supply chain companies, reflecting a positive outlook on future demand despite the absence of large orders currently [1] Part 1: Capacity Planning and Growth Expectations - Most suppliers are actively planning production capacity in China and overseas (primarily Thailand and Mexico) to support potential mass production of humanoid robots, with projected annual robot output ranging from 100,000 to 1,000,000 units [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts a global humanoid robot shipment of 1.38 million units by 2035, indicating a significant difference in outlook between supply chain companies and market forecasts [2] - Current capacity planning does not necessarily indicate an imminent risk of oversupply, but it does reflect a forward-looking optimism within the supply chain [2] Part 2: Product Matrix Upgrade and New Growth Engines - Suppliers are expanding their product matrices from single components to integrated modules, aiming to increase market share by leveraging existing production synergies [3] - Companies emphasize their technological capabilities and readiness for scalable production, with a focus on rapid design-to-product conversion cycles as a core competitive advantage [3] Part 3: Key Clients and Market Validation - Key clients mentioned during the survey include Tesla's Optimus, Zhiyuan, Leju, and Xiaopeng, which are expected to be early adopters of external suppliers for humanoid robot mass production, anticipated to begin in the second half of 2026 [4] Monitoring Key Nodes - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive long-term outlook on humanoid robot technology but emphasizes the need to monitor core product performance and specific end applications to determine if a technological inflection point is approaching [4] Company-Specific Insights Sanhua Intelligent Control - Plans to utilize additional land in Thailand for humanoid robot actuator assembly, with a focus on a single global client rather than broad customer expansion [7] - Maintains a dominant market share of 50% in the actuator assembly sector [7] Top Group - Plans to establish production capacity in Thailand, Mexico, and the U.S., with a projected annual capacity of 1 million units in Thailand, contingent on customer demand [8] - Engages in open collaboration with various clients, including joint development projects [8] Zhejiang Rongtai - Recently acquired a majority stake in a precision machinery company to enhance its capabilities in supplying components for humanoid robots [9] - Plans to shift production capacity to Thailand by 2025, emphasizing high precision and consistency in manufacturing [10] Dual Ring Transmission - Developing innovative solutions for domestic humanoid robot manufacturers, with plans to start mass production in the third quarter of 2026 [11] - Engaged with several domestic startups to provide planetary gear solutions [11] Minth Group - Targets a revenue of 5 billion RMB from humanoid robots by 2030, with a current production line capable of 10,000 units annually [13] - Collaborating with AgiBot on various technological developments [14] Joyson Electronics - Focuses on head assembly for humanoid robots, with plans to start capacity construction in the second quarter of next year [15] - Anticipates a gross margin of 25%-30% once production stabilizes [15] Zhaowei Electromechanical - Provides core micro-components for humanoid robots, with a focus on high power density and miniaturization [17] - Plans to achieve 100 million RMB in revenue from dexterous hands by 2026 [18] Best - Expanding its product line to include structural components and linear modules for humanoid robots, with current contributions to revenue being minimal [19] Shuanglin Co. - Plans to increase production capacity significantly by 2025 to meet domestic and international demand for humanoid robot components [21]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the rating of Sanhua Intelligent Control to "Neutral," citing overly optimistic market expectations regarding the revenue scale and timeline for humanoid robot actuators [1] Company Summary - Sanhua Intelligent Control's stock price has dropped by 6.03%, trading at HKD 36.14, with a trading volume of HKD 640 million [1] - The downgrade by Goldman Sachs indicates that the recent outperformance of Sanhua's A-shares has partially priced in expectations for its robotics business [1] Industry Summary - According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, the current valuation of Sanhua's A-shares implies expectations of 900,000 to 2 million units of Tesla's Optimus robots being shipped, assuming a market share of 30%-70% for Sanhua's actuators [1] - Tesla has set a target to achieve 1 million robot shipments by 2030, which appears challenging to meet in the short term (next 12 months) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) has dropped over 6%, attributed to a downgrade by Goldman Sachs, which cites overly optimistic market expectations regarding the company's humanoid robot revenue and deployment timeline [1] Company Summary - Sanhua Intelligent Control's stock fell by 6.03%, trading at HKD 36.14, with a transaction volume of HKD 640 million [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the company's rating to "Neutral," indicating that the market's current expectations for the revenue scale and timeline of Sanhua's humanoid robot actuators are too optimistic [1] Industry Summary - Goldman Sachs estimates that the current valuation of Sanhua's A-shares implies expectations of 900,000 to 2 million units of Tesla's Optimus robots being shipped, assuming a market share of 30%-70% for Sanhua's actuators [1] - Tesla has set a target to achieve 1 million robot shipments by 2030, which Goldman Sachs believes is unlikely to be met in the short term (within the next 12 months) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs recently downgraded the rating of Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050.SZ, 02050.HK) to "Neutral," citing overly optimistic expectations for humanoid robots and set a target price of 40.9 CNY per share for the A-shares over the next 12 months [2][6]. Price Movement and Market Reaction - On November 3, Sanhua Intelligent Control's A-shares and H-shares opened sharply lower, closing at 48.79 CNY and 38.46 HKD, with declines of 2.28% and 5.92% respectively [2][3]. - The stock price had surged due to the "robot" concept, with A-shares rising 78.27% since early September, while H-shares increased by 65.9% during the same period [3][6]. Divergence in Target Prices - There is a growing divergence in target prices among domestic and foreign institutions, with domestic brokerages generally optimistic, setting target prices ranging from 55.55 CNY to 59.17 CNY, indicating over 20% upside potential from the closing price of 48.79 CNY [5][6]. - In contrast, foreign institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have a more bearish outlook, with target prices of 40.9 CNY, 40 CNY, and 36.9 CNY, suggesting a belief that the stock price is overvalued [5][6]. Underlying Business Expectations - The recent stock price increase is primarily driven by market expectations for revenue from the company's robotics business. However, Goldman Sachs argues that the market's expectations for the revenue scale and timeline for humanoid robot actuators are overly optimistic [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the current A-share price implies expectations of 900,000 to 2 million units of Tesla's Optimus robots being shipped, which is unlikely to be achieved in the short term [6]. Market Speculation and Shareholder Actions - The stock has been a tool for speculation in the capital market, with significant trading activity from both retail and foreign investors. The major shareholder, Zhejiang Sanhua Green Energy Group, has also reduced its holdings by 13.476 million shares during the price surge, cashing out over 700 million CNY [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on Sanhua Intelligent Control with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 33.2, highlighting its leadership in HVAC control and thermal management components, as well as growth potential in humanoid robot actuators [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Sanhua is recognized as a global leader in HVAC control and thermal management components [1] - The company is expected to leverage its strong market position in HVAC and electric vehicle thermal management to drive future growth [1] Group 2: Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% for Sanhua's revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2030 [1] - The humanoid robot actuator segment is anticipated to contribute 25% of total revenue and 18% of net profit by 2030 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 33.2, highlighting its leadership in HVAC control and thermal management components, as well as growth potential in humanoid robot actuators [1] Company Summary - Sanhua is recognized as a global leader in HVAC control and thermal management components [1] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% in revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2030 [1] - The humanoid robot sector is identified as a significant long-term technological trend, with Sanhua positioned to play a key role in the supply chain as a prominent actuator assembler [1] - By 2030, the humanoid robot business segment is projected to contribute 25% of total revenue and 18% of net profit [1]

Group 1 - The US labor market remains resilient, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, and the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [1] - Structural mismatches in the labor market are evident, with government layoffs and AI advancements leading to an oversupply of white-collar workers, while tightened immigration policies result in a shortage of low-skilled positions [1] - The report suggests that the June non-farm data does not support an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, maintaining the view that the next rate cut may not occur until the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The submarine cable market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% from 2025 to 2030, driven by increased demand from internet giants and government initiatives in deep-sea technology [1] - An estimated 540,000 kilometers of new submarine cables are projected to be built globally from 2026 to 2030, representing a 60% increase compared to the planned construction from 2021 to 2025 [1] - Chinese companies are anticipated to lead more submarine cable projects, with domestic firms enhancing their competitiveness in the market [1] Group 3 - The maturity of hardware technology is expected to accelerate the mass production of humanoid robots, as the current actuator transmission solutions are not fully converged [2] - There is significant cost reduction potential in the hardware of humanoid robots as technology iterates and scales up [2] - Companies with multiple competitive advantages and new process iteration opportunities should be closely monitored in the humanoid robotics sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - Lixing Co., Ltd. (300421) held a performance briefing focusing on the application progress of its products in the humanoid robot sector [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Lixing is a leading domestic enterprise in the precision bearing steel ball sector, with its products widely used in various industries including automotive (both fuel and new energy vehicles), precision CNC machine tools, light industrial appliances, robotics, wind power generation, construction machinery, aerospace, and other general machinery manufacturing [1] - The company has ranked first in domestic sales revenue of bearing steel balls for several consecutive years and is the only domestic enterprise included in the procurement system of the world's top eight bearing manufacturers [1] Group 2: Humanoid Robot Applications - The market is currently focused on the lightweight design of humanoid robots, and Lixing is actively exploring this area. The company mentioned that while ceramic balls are a promising lightweight solution, challenges related to cost and stable raw material supply need to be addressed [1] - Lixing's R&D team is currently validating these lightweight solutions [1] Group 3: Screw Rod Project Development - The screw rod project is in a critical R&D phase, with the company increasing supply capacity for micro screw rod steel balls ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 mm, while also developing medium-sized screw rods in collaboration with downstream customers [1] - Lixing has already supplied micro screw rod steel balls for industrial applications and is expanding into large-scale applications in automotive parking systems [1] Group 4: Future Plans and Market Recognition - The company is advancing its technology for planetary rolling screw rods and dexterous hand rolling screw rods for humanoid robots, with significant expectations for the screw rod project as a major transformation initiative [1] - Orders for small micro balls used in humanoid robot actuators and dexterous hands are currently ramping up, with full production expected in the next 6 to 18 months [1] - The humanoid robot industry has specific requirements for design, raw materials, and lifespan, and Lixing's solutions for domestic substitution have gained market recognition [1]