国泰海通晨报 2025 年 11 月 27 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 liangzhonghua@gtht.com S0880525040019 张剑宇(研究助理) 021-38674711 zhangjianyu@gtht.com S0880124030031 宏观专题：《弱就业、强增长》2025-11-26 美国经济进入"弱就业+强增长"组合： 低就业与强经济的反差是当前美国经济的底色。就业与增长脱节历史上十分罕见，主流机构预测 未来十年劳动力年均增长率仅为 0.3-0.5%，远低于近 5 年的 1.3%。随着越来越少的行业有就业增长， 低招聘与低裁员展现出"冻结"的劳动力市场，这一奇妙均衡的持续时间恐怕比预期要更长。 缘何"弱就业"： 市场关于就业放缓的原因众说纷纭，我们在此重点讨论：1）人工智能的发展是否对就业产生了替 代效应；2）企业在疫情期间的劳动力囤积行为对当前就业是否造成反噬；3）移民减少对就业的影响 如何；4）政府裁员对就业的拖累在多大程度得到体现；5）高利率环境对就业放缓的解释 ...

再 Call 灵巧手：本轮 T 链灵巧手的重要性再探讨！ 20251117 摘要 人形机器人灵巧手是实现精细操作的关键，其性能直接影响产品发布， 因此是当前最紧迫的技术瓶颈。产品延迟发布的核心原因之一正是由于 灵巧手的性能和寿命不达标，新供应商的选择值得关注。 灵巧手技术结构复杂，单手及前臂需约 25 个执行器，主要由电机、微 型丝杠、腱绳等组成，并可能搭配电子皮肤。新一轮更新大概率沿用微 型丝杠加腱绳方案，并可能引入电子皮肤技术。 大部分公司已在 2025 年 11 月中上旬向海外客户送样，预计 11 月底收 到反馈，有望年底前拿到定点订单。2026 年二三月份发布前夕，灵巧 手核心零部件供应链非常值得重视。 零部件方面，电机、微型丝杠、电子皮肤环节可能出现增量、直径变化 或扭矩调整等变化，投资者应密切关注这些技术参数的调整。 微型丝杠环节，除浙江荣泰外，重点关注恒立液压的进展。电子皮肤方 面，看好汉威科技，该公司有望逐步将电子皮肤搭配至灵巧手上。 腱绳和电机端，可关注南山智尚、明志电器以及伟创电气，这些公司有 望成为新的供应链成员，具备较大的投资潜力。 方案，并可能引入一些电子皮肤相关技术。 当前阶段对灵 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the humanoid robot industry, specifically the development and commercialization of dexterous hands, which are crucial for performing diverse tasks in industrial, commercial, and household settings [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Importance of Dexterous Hands**: Dexterous hands significantly enhance the capabilities of humanoid robots, offering greater degrees of freedom and flexibility compared to traditional grippers, which typically have around 6 degrees of freedom [4][5]. - **Cost Structure**: For Tesla's Optimus, the dexterous hand accounts for approximately 17% of the total cost, with hollow cup motors and six-dimensional sensors being the primary cost components [1][6]. - **Technological Advancements**: The evolution of Tesla's Optimus series has seen the degrees of freedom increase from 11 to 22, with improvements in the drive system and the addition of tactile feedback systems for enhanced precision [1][8]. - **Market Potential**: The market for dexterous hands is projected to reach approximately 135.6 billion yuan by 2035, indicating significant growth opportunities as humanoid robots transition from demonstration to mass production [3][20]. Development Trends - **Human-like Design**: Future trends in dexterous hand design include increased gesture recognition capabilities and a shift towards more human-like structures, which will enhance their operational versatility [3][10][20]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The investment landscape is not limited to complete humanoid robot manufacturers but also includes suppliers of core components such as screws, reducers, motors, and sensors, which are expected to benefit from the industry's growth [3][21][22]. Additional Important Content - **Sensor Technology**: The dexterous hand's perception module, including six-dimensional force sensors and tactile sensors, is essential for improving operational accuracy and enabling complex tasks [3][15][16]. - **Comparative Analysis**: The dexterous hand's complexity and precision requirements are higher than traditional grippers, allowing for a broader range of applications, including the ability to handle small objects and perform intricate tasks [4][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The transition from prototype to mass production is anticipated to occur in 2026, with 2025 being a year of small-scale production, emphasizing the need for product maturity [2][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the humanoid robot industry and the specific advancements in dexterous hand technology, highlighting both the current state and future potential of the market.

Group 1 - The company, Topband Co., Ltd. (002139), is actively sending samples of its humanoid robot dexterous hands to key clients and has already secured small batch order collaborations with some clients [1] - The company has not yet involved its robotic arms in these collaborations [1] - The company commits to timely information disclosure regarding any further developments [1]

Group 1 - The company is actively sending samples of humanoid robot dexterous hands to key customers, and some customers have already reached small batch order cooperation [1] - The company has not yet involved in the mechanical arm business [1] - The company will fulfill its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner regarding any further developments [1]

Group 1 - The company has been actively engaging in the robotics industry, with ongoing stable shipments of products such as chess-playing robots and desktop companion robots [1] - The company has signed strategic cooperation agreements with partners like Tom Cat and Fule New Materials to deepen collaboration in the consumer AI companion robot sector [1] - The company is also in preliminary cooperation discussions with a leading robotics firm in Beijing for joint production of robotic systems [1] Group 2 - The subsidiary, Weier New Power, is conducting R&D and testing for robotic joint motors for multiple potential clients in the robotics field [1] - A large oilfield company has increased the number of operational units based on the stable performance and energy savings of a new motor prototype provided by the company [1] - The company has successfully passed tests for robotic dog motor components, resulting in small batch orders from a client [1] Group 3 - The company is collaborating with Tsinghua University on the development of key components for humanoid robots, including dexterous hands and motor control systems [2] - The first generation of dexterous hands has been delivered to the company, with the second generation expected to be installed and delivered soon [2] - The company has four main product lines, with a significant focus on R&D investment in smart wearables, smart home products, and robotics, while maintaining lower investment in more mature lines like electroacoustic products and health appliances [2]

Core Insights - The company has a long-term partnership with a major North American client, spanning ten years, and is recognized as a primary core supplier [1] - The company holds a significant market share in smart cockpit modules, including central control, B-pillar, and charging pile components [1] - In the humanoid robot sector, the company has delivered various modules, including head modules, joint modules, dexterous hands, torso shell structural components, and complete assembly to multiple clients [1] - The company is collaborating with its North American client to develop humanoid robot-related modules, although specific details are confidential due to client privacy requirements [1]

Core Insights - The dexterous hand is a core solution for humanoid robot end effectors, characterized by high flexibility but higher costs and lower reliability compared to traditional grippers [1] - Dexterous hands have a higher degree of freedom, enabling more complex grasping operations, which requires advanced algorithm models for generalization [1][3] - The demand for customized solutions from downstream clients is significant, leading to competitive advantages for whole hand and module manufacturers [3] Technical Composition - The dexterous hand consists of three main systems: 1. **Drive System**: Includes electric, hydraulic, pneumatic, and shape memory alloy drives, with electric motors being the mainstream due to their compact size and high power density [2] 2. **Transmission System**: Comprises reduction modules, linear transmission modules, and end transmission modules, with planetary reducers and worm gearboxes being commonly used [2] 3. **Sensing System**: Encompasses torque, position, and tactile sensors, with a focus on one-dimensional force sensing and the increasing application of MEMS tactile sensors [2] Development Trends - The technology routes for dexterous hands are expected to remain diverse in the short term, with multiple paths developing concurrently [3] - Future advancements will likely see increased degrees of freedom in dexterous hands, alongside a decrease in the unit price of tactile sensors and an increase in their usage [3] - Significant R&D investment and long development cycles mean that many manufacturers will need to collaborate with external suppliers, leading to high uncertainty in downstream demand for components [3]

Core Points - The 2025 World Robot Conference is being held from August 8 to 12 in Beijing, showcasing over 1,500 exhibits from more than 200 domestic and international robot companies [3] - The event features various pavilions including innovation, application, and technology, highlighting the latest solutions and products in the robotics industry [3] - Attendees can experience a wide range of robotic products that span medical services, industrial production, and daily life applications, emphasizing the potential of robots to enhance future living [3] Group 1 - The conference includes participation from 50 humanoid robot manufacturers presenting their latest exhibits and industry solutions [3] - Various types of robots are on display, including those for medical, industrial, and service applications, showcasing the versatility of robotics technology [3] - The event aims to demonstrate how robots can illuminate future lifestyles, indicating a strong focus on innovation and practical applications in everyday life [3] Group 2 - Attendees can interact with robots, including humanoid robots, robotic pets, and specialized robots for tasks such as logistics sorting and household assistance [143][148] - The conference also features performances by robotic bands and demonstrations of robotic capabilities, such as a humanoid robot playing soccer [115][138] - The event serves as a platform for industry leaders to showcase advancements in robotics and engage with the public, highlighting the growing importance of robotics in various sectors [3]

Core Insights - The 2025 World Robot Conference, held in Beijing from August 8 to 12, focuses on "making robots smarter and bodies more intelligent," showcasing embodied intelligence applications across various sectors including healthcare, entertainment, and education [3][13]. Industry Developments - The conference highlighted the rapid growth of China's medical robotics industry, driven by strategic opportunities and government policies, with a projected market size exceeding 30 billion yuan by 2025, where rehabilitation robots are expected to account for 45% [13][14]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-end medical equipment and surgical robots as key areas for development, leading to increased investment and innovation in the sector [13]. Technological Innovations - Various companies showcased advanced medical robots, such as exoskeletons that assist elderly individuals in walking and performing daily activities, significantly reducing physical strain on caregivers [4][5]. - The SuperX robotic radiation therapy system addresses the challenge of precise tumor tracking during treatment, enhancing the effectiveness of cancer therapies [6]. - The introduction of AI-driven surgical robots, like the ROPA orthopedic surgical robot, marks a significant advancement in integrating artificial intelligence into surgical procedures, improving decision-making and operational efficiency [10]. Market Dynamics - The demand for rehabilitation robots is surging due to an aging population and a significant gap in professional rehabilitation therapists, with 24 million individuals in China living with limb disabilities [13][14]. - Investment in the medical robotics sector is robust, with over 10 billion yuan raised in the first half of 2024, reflecting strong confidence from capital markets [13][14]. User Experience and Applications - The "Embodied Intelligence Rehabilitation Community" showcased robots that enhance cognitive and physical rehabilitation, demonstrating a 27% average improvement in cognitive function scores for stroke patients [8]. - Companies are developing user-friendly robots that assist caregivers in transferring patients, reducing physical exertion by up to 60%, thus addressing labor shortages in the elderly care sector [5][14].